Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

RVP has scored 42 in 43 league Games

Ba accounts for 60% of Newcastle's goals

Both teams better up top than at back

I believe a speciality price out there is 11/2 for both to score any time tonight

Don't like specialty bets, not great value, but this was worth a second look I thought

ON.

£30 @11/2, SkyBet.

[EvilPie]

RVP has scored 42 in 43 league Games

Ba accounts for 60% of Newcastle's goals

Both teams better up top than at back

I believe a speciality price out there is 11/2 for both to score any time tonight

Don't like specialty bets, not great value, but this was worth a second look I thought

ON.

£30 @11/2, SkyBet.

Congratulations getting £30 on something with Skybet.

[redarmi]

RVP has scored 42 in 43 league Games

Ba accounts for 60% of Newcastle's goals

Both teams better up top than at back

I believe a speciality price out there is 11/2 for both to score any time tonight

Don't like specialty bets, not great value, but this was worth a second look I thought

In the long run both of these players would have to score roughly 38% of their teams goals for this to be value.  They are definitely fairly unique players in terms of the percentage and RVP is probably in for about that tonight.  I am normally fairly loathe to assign any player more than 35% of their teams goals.  Be interested in adnvfn's view of this bet??

[TightEnd]

Me too, I suspect its not great value but a sweat should be fun....

RVP had a glorious chance after 1 minute.

[redarmi]

Me too, I suspect its not great value but a sweat should be fun....

RVP had a glorious chance after 1 minute.

These kind of bets are normally such horrible value that they aren't even worth looking at but this definitely doesn't fall into that category.   It is close, very close to being value I think.

[Silo Graham]

Probably just what you needed for this bet.

FML

[Silo Graham]

bink

[tikay]

Probably just what you needed for this bet.

FML

Lol, just a bit!

[TightEnd]

Van Persie...............................

Bet On.

[tikay]

Back in with a shout now!

[tikay]

Well we got the easy half of the bet home.....

[Silo Graham]

Oh Ba and RVP to score, apologies, I thought it was both teams.  

Thought 11/2 was a good price

[tikay]

Thanks guys.

It was a late suggestion, & as Rich has good history, I thought I'd have some fun.

It has been worth it for the price analysis alone, £30 well spent, imo.

[TightEnd]

sweating Ba not being substituted, let alone scoring

Didn't enjoy waiting for the elctronic numbers going up there....!

[The Camel]

Obviously very late on this but I had it about 5/1 for both to score if you just multiply their odds of Anytime individually, using pretty loose %s (i.e. larger than you'd want to be using to back this sort of thing).

Edit: Removed some analysis which was wrong! It probably is EV, though pretty thin...wouldn't be backing it myself, had another look and make it about 6.3ish, so worth it for a sweat maybe, probably not worth it from a profit POV as you're generally gonna want a better margin of safety on bets like this with quite a few variables you can get wrong, as well as being long odds.

It's not as simple as that is it?

Once or other has scored, the goals are in for less and hence the price on the other scoring increases. Sort of like the opposite of a related double. Am I wrong?

I dunno, maybe I'm wrong, I never look at stuff like this because I assume it is always terrible value.