Tips for Tikay

[hhyftrftdr]

Propa nawty at west 'am today.

[arbboy]

Propa nawty at west 'am today.

Porn barons will have plenty of underground connections to sort anyone out.   Anyone would think Ham were in the bottom 3.

[Karabiner]

Propa nawty at west 'am today.

Dildo brothers will have plenty of underground connections to sort anyone out.   Anyone would think Ham were in the bottom 3.

fyp

[arbboy]

Going to shout this one early after the first race at Sheffield on RPGTV tonight (ch468) mainly because there was a big inside bias last night there and its raining heavy again tonight.  First race was 321 and all railers the whole race.  Trap 6 led early (was clear 2nd fav) and found nothing in clear run race.

Bang railer in t4 just got up on the line in the sprint handicap so it still looks inside in the 2nd race.

[arbboy]

Going to shout this one early after the first race at Sheffield on RPGTV tonight (ch468) mainly because there was a big inside bias last night there and its raining heavy again tonight.  First race was 321 and all railers the whole race.  Trap 6 led early (was clear 2nd fav) and found nothing in clear run race.

Bang railer in t4 just got up on the line in the sprint handicap so it still looks inside in the 2nd race.

Still no t6 placed in the first 3 in any race so far.  Looks pretty solid inside.

[arbboy]

Solid

[Jamier-Host]

Looks pretty solid inside.

How would you tend to take advantage of this bias?

Backing the inside dogs? Laying outside faves? Go nuts on combo FC/TC on the 1-2-3?!

At what point does it become obvious and the layers just factor it into the prices at the track anyway?

On a related note I vaguely remember working on a shop one day years ago (assume early 00's) and the same trap won pretty much every race through a card. It was funny as people were coming up to the counter going "well it definitely can't win this one, it's in the Post as a 10/1 shot" or similar, and then watching their shrewd selection get beat again. I don't think a single person just got on the bandwagon and took advantage.

[Cavey007]

sorry we don't have BetStars

nowhere else?

Most of the draft options I could see are offline at the moment (Pp, ladbrokes, sky have all taken then down from a quick check this morning) I think Darnold will be bigger odds when they re-open so probably worth keeping an eye out for that time

Sky have theirs back up now and Darnold is now 2/1 on there, I know it's of no use for TfT, but for anyone else wanting to follow Tal the option is there, with all the money on Barkley he's now odds on at 8/11 on there, I got the 5/2 on him so I should probably hedge with Darnold on Skybet, I don't like going against Tal on these kinds of things!

[Tal]

sorry we don't have BetStars

nowhere else?

Most of the draft options I could see are offline at the moment (Pp, ladbrokes, sky have all taken then down from a quick check this morning) I think Darnold will be bigger odds when they re-open so probably worth keeping an eye out for that time

Sky have theirs back up now and Darnold is now 2/1 on there, I know it's of no use for TfT, but for anyone else wanting to follow Tal the option is there, with all the money on Barkley he's now odds on at 8/11 on there, I got the 5/2 on him so I should probably hedge with Darnold on Skybet, I don't like going against Tal on these kinds of things!

Spotted and already had some this morning.

I hate Requestabets because they're ripe for the bookies to grim the punter that clearly wants to bet it. However, three on Sky:

4 or more QBs drafted in the first round: 1/8

5 or more QBs drafted in the first round: 1/2

Derwin James drafted picks 1-10: 9/4

I did my second Mock Draft in the week - link here:
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68046.msg2219953#msg2219953

Barring injury or stupidity (drink driving, domestic violence, burning a flag), the following are certain to be drafted in the first round in some order or other:

Sam Darnold
Baker Mayfield
Josh Rosen
Josh Allen

Quite possible they all go top 10, after trades (teams like Buffalo look to be in the mix for trading up to take a QB - another reason why the Browns must take their choice of QB first)

I can't really see how Lamar Jackson doesn't go first round either. There are teams in the better (later) half of the first round of the draft who need a QB, whether to start or to develop for the future: Arizona, Buffalo, LA Chargers, Pittsburgh. Jackson is an enigma in that he is a running QB, much like Michael Vick. Think Cam Newton/Russell Wilson but with a better run threat.

There's also Mason Rudolph, who doesn't make my first round, but does make other people's.

As for the Derwin James bet, he's a superb talent. How about this for a bit of analysis: https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2018/3/6/17086572/2018-nfl-draft-best-defensive-player-derwin-james-florida-state

The risk is everyone who would have picked James up trades down with teams who want a QB. Even then, he could still go. There are two obvious teams who should want him in the top ten: Tampa Bay and Oakland. The latter in particular at 10.

Guessing these prices don't change monumentally before the draft, so probably stuff just to keep an eye on. I'm still sceptical about the Requestabets, too.

[Cavey007]

The prices change pretty easily on these as the books are so small on them, just by me tweeting out and getting on a few last year the prices were cut within 10 mins or so on a few of the RaBs last season. Guess what I'm saying is if you want in it's best to get on early.

Barkley at 1 and Mayfield at 4 was 10/1 before the trades, into 8/1 now, I would assume that's a reaction to the money for Barkley #1.

5 QBs in the top 10 is 20/1, obviously a whole lot more risky but with so many QB needy teams who are probably willing to trade up, could be possible, the whole draft landscape could be completely different on the day!

[tikay]

At Ibrox, proper game of football on in the Old Firm, end to end, real blood and thunder stuff, good referee allowing play to flow freely, and plenty of gials already, with an hour left to play.

Well worth a watch.

[tikay]

^^^^

One of the most enjoyable and exciting games I've seen all season, and the goals keep coming.

[Rod Paradise]

^^^^

One of the most enjoyable and exciting games I've seen all season, and the goals keep coming.

Was an entertaining match, especially with us giving them 2 goals & getting a man sent off. I also was hit with a glass bottle thrown from those lovely Rangers fans after the 3rd Celtic goal, no damage done though.

Been a fun weekend, was drinking with the son of the mastermind behind the Great Train Robbery on Friday as well.

[TightEnd]

Sean Dyche, Eddie Howe, the top 6 and the promoted clubs survive.
Every other PL team has sacked their manager this season.

[tikay]

Sean Dyche, Eddie Howe, the top 6 and the promoted clubs survive.
Every other PL team has sacked their manager this season.

If Southampton can get the "bounce" from a new Manager it can't help Stoke.