Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-in-top-half

I would bet 7/2+ for value on Palace top 10. Suggest £30. You have a Red Zone account?

Palace had Batshuyai starting against Leicester which i hoped would make a huge difference and it did. After a battling first half of few chances and incredible luck to go 1-0 up, the side impressed in the second half after being pegged back and i see the squad settling into a good place. Bats in instead of Benteke/Ayew is huge as he is much better with his feet than those, and has more of a potency in front of goal, albeit perhaps not emphatic, but with the previous two they have been pretty poor. I think for the confidence for the rest of the side, to have a player of his quality heading the line, aligns the whole team.

Even with Benteke scoring 15 goals in a season 2 seasons ago, i always wasn't an amazing fan of his as his ability with the ball at his feet has always been terrible from an attacking standpoint, which break down play and frustrate the side. Since then arguably i would argue we haven't had a decent performing striker, and now with it, and the support of an otherwise solid team, i think the back end of this season could be fruitful.

Our strongest starting 11 i think arguably is the 7th best in the league on paper. We normally close out seasons well. We have Wan Bissaka and Zaha potentially playing out of their skin vying for a move away. Our form has been good. The form of the three teams above in Leicester, Everton and Bournemouth have been questionable, Burnley have been impressive though. We have Everton and Bournemouth at home in the run in as well.

Sakho is out for the Man U game which is a blow, but we should still do well enough to put in a good showing with Kelly replacing. He is though probably the most key player in the team if he isn't present, as he sets a tremendous tone out from the back with his calm demeanour and attacking passing. Annoyingly with most of this written down Sakho's injury could be a lot longer than the Man U game as he has been seen on crutches in public recently. Tomkins is good at setting the tone as well with his breadth of passing even if Sakho is sidelined, just because of the value present it is still worth a shot if you can get 7/2+. It would be 3/1+ if Sakho wasn't injured imo. A lot of talk from Hodgson saying it is a minor issue, so let's hope him on crutches is more overkill and the value is higher.

I think all considered it is a value price for sure at 7/2+, as i think Palace will close this season out well, and with Batshuyai I could see us doing so with more aplomb. I am definitely not as honed in on the value with Palace under Hodgson's reign rather than other Palace managers with a style of football i find hard to predict the value in against other teams, but i think i have been given enough scope here to confidently put this up.

Ant, there is rumours that Sakho could be out for the season, if so just can’t see this bet coming in

Palace 2-0 up at Burnley as i write this, so unfair of me to say, but i think against man u having Kelly AND Ward on the same side of the pitch in the backline was a travesty and they scored they first goal from neither pressing the runner. Dann and Wan Bissaka in to replace for Burnley and there is a world of difference. Also it was very apparent just how much a miss Wan Bissaka was with his marauding runs and definitely think the bet is live without Sakho, but ofc he's a miss. 

[tikay]

^^^^^

Good result for Palace this afternoon Ant.

[Ant040689]

yup maybe this quote from Dyche is telling, "Most people are probably confused, Palace are a good side and most people are probably scratching their heads when they see them down there [in the table]."

West Ham winning tonight doesn't help and Watford drawing or taking three points from Everton tomorrow is probably best for the bet.

Having a double full back threat with wan bissaka returning and PVA on the other side is probably more important than Sakho being out for the season imo. Batshuyai i think is the difference in us now going on to hopefully show top 7 form until the end of the season. It is a shame a permanent transfer of him is less likely because of the Chelsea transfer embargo. Benteke and his £100k a week is off of our books by 2020. Townsend seemed to be limping at the end of the game, which would be terrible, but hoping for the best.

Thinking about it now, I think 5 players are integral for us, with any one of them being absent a bigger blow than any of the other 6 players. And that is the wide players and the striker. So PVA, Wan Bissaka, Zaha, Townsend, Batshuyai. If they all stay fit i think we run the top 10 close. There is decent cover for every other position. PVA might surprise a few people as a shout by me, but you only have to look at Schlupp replacing him at the end of the Man U game for the Young goal to see we are short in that position too.

[Chompy]

https://m.skybet.com/football/premier-league/event/22520022

6-5 to finish above Cherries looks decent.

Another two goals for Mmmbappy takes him to 23 in the league I think. Ronaldo on 19? Still got a sniff there at 80-1.

[hhyftrftdr]

https://m.skybet.com/football/premier-league/event/22520022

6-5 to finish above Cherries looks decent.

Another two goals for Mmmbappy takes him to 23 in the league I think. Ronaldo on 19? Still got a sniff there at 80-1.

It's gonna be a tight run thing but a great 80/1 sweat whatever happens.

Think Mbappe is on 24, so has 12 games to net 6 goals. EZ.
Ronny is on 19, so we need 11 goals in 13 games. They play 2nd place Napoli tonight so might not get too much change out of that game.

On a similar note, this Kane top scorer bet pretty much worked out exactly as I was hoping it would; back from injury early whilst the goals dried up for the rivals. He's now best priced 11/2 to top the charts whereas we got him at a very healthy 12/1.

Joint 3rd and only 2 off the summit; Salah's scoring form has disappeared, Sterling and Hazard haven't been able to last the pace and PEA is a bit hit and miss. The only spanner in the works is Aguero but I'd be very surprised if Kane isn't top 3 by May and he could easily win the Golden boot again assuming no more injuries.

PS, great to be back from holiday, can't wait to go back to work tomorrow.

[hhyftrftdr]

Potentially quite a pivotal weekend in the title race, and it certainly feels like the tide might have turned given the results yesterday and today. Still a long way to go of course but the pendulum has swung in City's favour and we've been in this position before.

If I was a betting man, I would be absolutely mashing Aguero at 5/1 (its shy so not for fred) for POTY.
VVD is still odds on favourite and he's obv having a class season. But it feels like for him to scoop, Liverpool need to win the title. It's rare for a defender to win this award anyway, so if Liverpool were to finish 2nd then it would be even rarer that a none title winning centre half were to be crowned top dog.

If City do prevail, a lot of that is gonna be down to Aguero's goals, and he's hitting form at just the right time. I'd have them a lot closer in the betting (5/1 vs 8/11).

Great to be back to offer some impartial and definitely not biased thoughts

[bergeroo]

Potentially quite a pivotal weekend in the title race, and it certainly feels like the tide might have turned given the results yesterday and today. Still a long way to go of course but the pendulum has swung in City's favour and we've been in this position before.

If I was a betting man, I would be absolutely mashing Aguero at 5/1 (its shy so not for fred) for POTY.
VVD is still odds on favourite and he's obv having a class season. But it feels like for him to scoop, Liverpool need to win the title. It's rare for a defender to win this award anyway, so if Liverpool were to finish 2nd then it would be even rarer that a none title winning centre half were to be crowned top dog.

If City do prevail, a lot of that is gonna be down to Aguero's goals, and he's hitting form at just the right time. I'd have them a lot closer in the betting (5/1 vs 8/11).

Great to be back to offer some impartial and definitely not biased thoughts

Is the award not voted on several weeks before the end of the season??

[hhyftrftdr]

Potentially quite a pivotal weekend in the title race, and it certainly feels like the tide might have turned given the results yesterday and today. Still a long way to go of course but the pendulum has swung in City's favour and we've been in this position before.

If I was a betting man, I would be absolutely mashing Aguero at 5/1 (its shy so not for fred) for POTY.
VVD is still odds on favourite and he's obv having a class season. But it feels like for him to scoop, Liverpool need to win the title. It's rare for a defender to win this award anyway, so if Liverpool were to finish 2nd then it would be even rarer that a none title winning centre half were to be crowned top dog.

If City do prevail, a lot of that is gonna be down to Aguero's goals, and he's hitting form at just the right time. I'd have them a lot closer in the betting (5/1 vs 8/11).

Great to be back to offer some impartial and definitely not biased thoughts

Is the award not voted on several weeks before the end of the season??

Yeah, usually towards end of April. Think Salah won it on the 23rd April last year, so would assume voting takes place just before that.

Obv this season it's much closer and the title probably won't have been decided when the votes are made (unlike 17/18 when the title was decided in November ), but the picture might be a little clearer come April.

It's why Aguero is hitting form at just the right time. VVD is also still in good form, but Liverpool have drawn too many games recently and given up the initiative to City. If VVD scoops and Liverpool come 2nd then that would be a first for the Premier League/POTY.

[Archer]

The PFA reps go into clubs to drop off/collect votes and I heard on a pod the other day that they have already started.

Last year there was huge traction in social media when Danny Simpson posted his nominations on twitter and that was towards the end of March.  At this time last year Salah had about 20 league goals and KDB was still clear favourite for POTY. Salah then scored 4 in one game in the middle of March and his odds dropped like a stone. If Aguero hits another brace or hatrick in the next 2 or 3 games he will have a great chance. Puts him right in the media spotlight not least because he will join Henry as the only other player in PL history to score 20+ league goals in 5 consecutive seasons and up to 6th place in the top PL scorer list just behind Henry.

A good bet for the thread now is Liverpool to win the league. As high as 5/2  seems value to me  when only 1 point behind and particularly if they get knocked out of the CL. City potentially would have 6 more games with 2 x FAC and 4 x CL should they get to the semis. Brutal.

[Chompy]

VVD is a certainty barring a season-ending injury of a complete Liverpool collapse.

15 goals conceded after 29 games is ridiculous given how they were before him and he's played a much bigger role in Liverpool's season than Aguero has in City's.

I can't think of a better defender in England in my lifetime.

The last bits of 4-6 are golden.

[tikay]

VVD is a certainty barring a season-ending injury of a complete Liverpool collapse.

15 goals conceded after 29 games is ridiculous given how they were before him and he's played a much bigger role in Liverpool's season than Aguero has in City's.

I can't think of a better defender in England in my lifetime.

The last bits of 4-6 are golden.

Oh please, let's keep it real. This man was not only a great defender for Wolves, with 105 caps for England, but he went on to manage the Arsenal, and even better, he married a Beverley Sister.



 

[Marky147]

When are your mob putting their Vegas sats up, Tikay?

[tikay]

When are your mob putting their Vegas sats up, Tikay?

Ha, incred timing - they start today.


https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby/poker-promotions/sky-poker-tour-las-vegas-satellites

[Marky147]

When are your mob putting their Vegas sats up, Tikay?

Ha, incred timing - they start today.


https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby/poker-promotions/sky-poker-tour-las-vegas-satellites

What kind of dates are those 

[tikay]

When are your mob putting their Vegas sats up, Tikay?

Ha, incred timing - they start today.


https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby/poker-promotions/sky-poker-tour-las-vegas-satellites

What kind of dates are those 

Am hoping to get back on my Diary Bike shortly, so will discuss there to avoid de-railing Fred.