Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

With it being an each way offer and adz saying he waited for the offer to bet tiger roll but then said he isn’t betting it each way, I’m confused

No confusion needed. It wasn't what I remembered from last year. Simples!!

Looks like my plans have been scuppered!!

[arbboy]

Its only offered because of the ew part of the bet.  You are usually giving away chunks on their place terms compared to the true price with 40 runners guaranteed with reserves.  It's a smart offer no doubt because it looks much more attractive than it actually is ev wise to the vast majority of punters and is predominately designed to make one member of a family/work place to say 'i will put all the bets on' so they get the refund from dozens of once a year punters who couldn't care less about price.

[Bazzaboy]

7 places in the GN from Geoff Banks. All good if you don’t mind getting paid at 1/7th.

[Doobs]

7 places in the GN from Geoff Banks. All good if you don’t mind getting paid at 1/7th.

Quarter first four is pretty grim in the National, there is way worse for most bets.

[Doobs]

7 places in the GN from Geoff Banks. All good if you don’t mind getting paid at 1/7th.

Quarter first four is pretty grim in the National, there is way worse for most bets.

I meant "This is way worse".

Brodders is on the case

@brodders_be
Replying to @geoffbanksbet
Could I ask whether there’s a misprint on your website? Are you going 1/7th 1-7?

And on to Skybet

Sky Bet - Grand National Offer | Paying 5 Places Instead Of 4‎

Of course the small print says a fifth the odds, so it isn't an offer at all.  It is a bit like Tesco saying "special offer was 90p, now £1".  Only a matter of time before somebody can show the occasions Tesco have done that.

Note lots of other bookmakers are also offering a fifth first 5 including the comically named in the circumstances, "Bethard".  Sky was just the advert I came across.   

[Bazzaboy]

It’s so bad that surely only the really hard of thinking or those who haven’t read the small print that will avail of his “offer”. In an industry full of charlatans he is one of the biggest.

[Doobs]

It’s so bad that surely only the really hard of thinking or those who haven’t read the small print that will avail of his “offer”. In an industry full of charlatans he is one of the biggest.

The problem is that a large proportion of punters won't understamd this is really awful, and he is presenting it as an offer.   He has just posted the offer again and there is no mention of the 1/7th in his tweet or the ad he has linked to.  He has also blocked brodders for pointing it out.   Quarter first four is very good in a lot of races, but isn't really in the National and there really isn't any need to offer worse terms to make a killing in the race. 

He stated in his reply that "stupid traders" expect every offer to be unsustainable.  Maybe the stupid ones do, the rest of us just expect them to be fair and not misleading.   Personally I'd just like to get a reasonable bet on, I'd be just happy if I can get £50 win or each way on most of the time.   I don't do it for a living, just for fun.  I'd be happy to get a handful of quarter first 4 bets on the National that aren't likely to be great value.

[tikay]

^^^^

Yes, Brodders simply asked if it was a typo, & minutes later.....

 

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

Is 1/7 7 places much worse than 1/4 4 or 1/5 5 places in the national that is?  I doubt there will be much in it.

[Doobs]

Is 1/7 7 places much worse than 1/4 4 or 1/5 5 places?  I doubt there will be much in it.

In a 20 runner race, say the typical odds for an each way bet are going to be around 10/1.

Taking a fifth first 5 vs quarter first 4 means you lose 20% on your win bet and your bet on the first 4 places and in return get an extra place at 2/1 that has something like a 1 in 20 chance of coming in. 

I worked it out a while ago, and I think a typical each way bet at a fifth first 5 is only worth about 90% of one at quarter first 4.  If you get a true 20/1 chance at 20/1 in a 20 runner race there is nothing much in it, hence why I said you need to get big priced each way horses.  But even then you need to get a big priced horse close to betfar prices and that is rarely possible, as 80/1 chances on betfair are way more likely to be priced at 33/1 than 80/1.

I haven't worked out seventh first 7, but I'd be enormously shocked if the maths gets reversed, so I think it is safe to assume that quarter first 4 is better than fifth first 5 (and significantly better than 1/7th first 7).  You could possibly find something at a big price which plods along and has a good chance of finishing in the top 7 and get some value, but most punters are going to get screwed over by him.    You can pretty much tell that a fifth first 5 is worse just by looking at the bookies that offer it.

I'll just say that I think bookies can offer whatever terms they like, but they shouldn't be misleading and put something up as a special offer that clearly isn't.  I wouldn't like to bet on the gambling commission doing anything about it after that disgraceful statement on Betbright.  Suspect the Advertising Standards Authority would be a better place to complain to.

[horseplayer]

Fair play to Geoff he has updated his website from a copy of ceefax circa 1983.

A complete twat

[BigAdz]

Obviously Banks knows the math better than us, hence the reason he blocked rather than discuss.

No matter how many times we have the discussion, I dont think I will ever understand the bit about losing 20% on the win bet.

Not sure how you losr on the win bit when it is paid in full, 10-1 is paid as 10-1, 20-1 is paid as 20-1. It doesn't matter about the place terms. That doesn't literally make sense that you lose 20%.

It will obviously be my lack of understanding though, it normally is.

[horseplayer]

It is all irrelevant with Geoff anyway, you are more likely to be laid by skybet by a distance than Geoffrey

[RobS]

Is 1/7 7 places much worse than 1/4 4 or 1/5 5 places?  I doubt there will be much in it.

In a 20 runner race, say the typical odds for an each way bet are going to be around 10/1.

Taking a fifth first 5 vs quarter first 4 means you lose 20% on your win bet and your bet on the first 4 places and in return get an extra place at 2/1 that has something like a 1 in 20 chance of coming in. 

I worked it out a while ago, and I think a typical each way bet at a fifth first 5 is only worth about 90% of one at quarter first 4.  If you get a true 20/1 chance at 20/1 in a 20 runner race there is nothing much in it, hence why I said you need to get big priced each way horses.  But even then you need to get a big priced horse close to betfar prices and that is rarely possible, as 80/1 chances on betfair are way more likely to be priced at 33/1 than 80/1.

I haven't worked out seventh first 7, but I'd be enormously shocked if the maths gets reversed, so I think it is safe to assume that quarter first 4 is better than fifth first 5 (and significantly better than 1/7th first 7).  You could possibly find something at a big price which plods along and has a good chance of finishing in the top 7 and get some value, but most punters are going to get screwed over by him.    You can pretty much tell that a fifth first 5 is worse just by looking at the bookies that offer it.

I'll just say that I think bookies can offer whatever terms they like, but they shouldn't be misleading and put something up as a special offer that clearly isn't.  I wouldn't like to bet on the gambling commission doing anything about it after that disgraceful statement on Betbright.  Suspect the Advertising Standards Authority would be a better place to complain to.

Hi Doobs,

Not sure what this means. 10/1 1/4 4 you are getting 5/2 top 4. 10/1 1/5 5 you are getting 2/1 top 5.

So 28.6% top 4. 33.3% top 5. i.e. 4.7% chance to finish 5th which seems generous.

And lose 20% on your win bet? Is that special rules with Geoff Banks?

[Doobs]

Is 1/7 7 places much worse than 1/4 4 or 1/5 5 places?  I doubt there will be much in it.

In a 20 runner race, say the typical odds for an each way bet are going to be around 10/1.

Taking a fifth first 5 vs quarter first 4 means you lose 20% on your win bet and your bet on the first 4 places and in return get an extra place at 2/1 that has something like a 1 in 20 chance of coming in. 

I worked it out a while ago, and I think a typical each way bet at a fifth first 5 is only worth about 90% of one at quarter first 4.  If you get a true 20/1 chance at 20/1 in a 20 runner race there is nothing much in it, hence why I said you need to get big priced each way horses.  But even then you need to get a big priced horse close to betfar prices and that is rarely possible, as 80/1 chances on betfair are way more likely to be priced at 33/1 than 80/1.

I haven't worked out seventh first 7, but I'd be enormously shocked if the maths gets reversed, so I think it is safe to assume that quarter first 4 is better than fifth first 5 (and significantly better than 1/7th first 7).  You could possibly find something at a big price which plods along and has a good chance of finishing in the top 7 and get some value, but most punters are going to get screwed over by him.    You can pretty much tell that a fifth first 5 is worse just by looking at the bookies that offer it.

I'll just say that I think bookies can offer whatever terms they like, but they shouldn't be misleading and put something up as a special offer that clearly isn't.  I wouldn't like to bet on the gambling commission doing anything about it after that disgraceful statement on Betbright.  Suspect the Advertising Standards Authority would be a better place to complain to.

Hi Doobs,

Not sure what this means. 10/1 1/4 4 you are getting 5/2 top 4. 10/1 1/5 5 you are getting 2/1 top 5.

So 28.6% top 4. 33.3% top 5. i.e. 4.7% chance to finish 5th which seems generous.

And lose 20% on your win bet? Is that special rules with Geoff Banks?

sorry Rob and Adz, having a brain fart.  seems common recently.  you lose 20% on the first 4 places, not the win price.   

You lose overall as a 10/1 chance for first isn't going to be 10/1 for 2nd in this race, it is more like 12/1.   By the time you get to 5th (or 7th), the chance of it finishing in that position is nearer 20/1 than 10/1.   In a typical 20 runner race, I'd say barring the real donkeys, most horses are going to be about 20/1 to finish 10th or 11th.   

When I have backsolved betfair place terms you can see that those laying are working out the maths in a similar way to the way I do.   You get exceptions as some horses are genuinely 1st or last kind of horses; and some seem averse to first place, so get placed a lot. 

As it is, you lose 20% through backing Geoff Banks win prices as he isn't close to betfair on most