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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332569 times)
Juperjiper
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« Reply #135615 on: April 03, 2019, 11:32:57 PM »

The 'right' people will buy them off the 'right' punters if you get my drift.  Price is up for discussion depending on previous on the account.

Sell you one for a grand
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Juperjiper
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« Reply #135616 on: April 04, 2019, 09:07:28 AM »

Anyone else just received via email a £50 free bet from Hills? Doesn't appear to be any silly T's and C's attached to it either bar the usual/obvious.
 
On that note, any tips for the horses in the next few days? Smiley Maybe a juicy e/w punt on the National?

I think your final sentence explains why you still get free bets.  Smiley

Whatever you back, back win only.  Each way on free bets makes them bad value.   Say you back £25 e/w on a 5/1 chance at a fifth first 5 (this is Hills after all!).   If it places, you get even money on the place, so that is £25 at evens, so £50 back on a normal bet.   On a free bet, they deduct the stake from your winnings; hence you end up with nothing.   So you effectively have converted your £50 win only bet to a bad £25 one (as £50 deducted from winnings).

Back a horse win only at around 7/1 to 10/1 and you should be fine.   As an aside each way bets on horses at around 7/1 in the National are usually terrible value even without the offer.  The exception would be if you got a truckload of places.

Is the bet365 offer any good doobs? Best way to do it if so?
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Doobs
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« Reply #135617 on: April 04, 2019, 09:22:16 AM »

Anyone else just received via email a £50 free bet from Hills? Doesn't appear to be any silly T's and C's attached to it either bar the usual/obvious.
 
On that note, any tips for the horses in the next few days? Smiley Maybe a juicy e/w punt on the National?

I think your final sentence explains why you still get free bets.  Smiley

Whatever you back, back win only.  Each way on free bets makes them bad value.   Say you back £25 e/w on a 5/1 chance at a fifth first 5 (this is Hills after all!).   If it places, you get even money on the place, so that is £25 at evens, so £50 back on a normal bet.   On a free bet, they deduct the stake from your winnings; hence you end up with nothing.   So you effectively have converted your £50 win only bet to a bad £25 one (as £50 deducted from winnings).

Back a horse win only at around 7/1 to 10/1 and you should be fine.   As an aside each way bets on horses at around 7/1 in the National are usually terrible value even without the offer.  The exception would be if you got a truckload of places.

Is the bet365 offer any good doobs? Best way to do it if so?

They usually are good, but I don't know which one you are talking about.   The best way to use a free bet is pretty much get something at a decent price win only.   So on a football one, you should be using your free bet on something like number of corners, correct score or first goalscorer.   Definitely don't use it on an odds on team to win or an each way horse.   I'd say look for something close to betfair price too, but that doesn't really work for football bets. 

But let me know the offer in case I am talking bollocks above.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Juperjiper
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« Reply #135618 on: April 04, 2019, 09:33:36 AM »

Half your stake back on each way bets up to £125
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« Reply #135619 on: April 04, 2019, 09:42:46 AM »

Half your stake back on each way bets up to £125

Ha, it was bollocks then.   Is this the National?   
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Juperjiper
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« Reply #135620 on: April 04, 2019, 10:11:17 AM »

https://mobile.bet365.com/#type=Offer;key=2246;ip=1;lng=1

Just the National ya
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« Reply #135621 on: April 04, 2019, 10:56:30 AM »


Note to self.  Don't click on that link if on wifi. 

Avoid the really short ones, don't pick too many if you want max value.

Personally I'd look for 3 or 4 at 16/1 up.   It is probably a good balance between reducing risk and getting value.  I think you are expected to put them all on the same slip.  365 tend to give best value after 10am on Saturday, but you have to bet before noon.   There is a chance they have more places on Saturday.  The last big shouldn't matter, most horses don't drift in the National after noon, so everybody should be aiming to bet in this window and taking a price.   Aintree bookies are brutal on the National; it will be no surprise to see Tiger Roll start at 5/2 and a couple of others at 6/1.



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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
StuartHopkin
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« Reply #135622 on: April 04, 2019, 11:28:44 AM »


Note to self.  Don't click on that link if on wifi. 

Avoid the really short ones, don't pick too many if you want max value.

Personally I'd look for 3 or 4 at 16/1 up.   It is probably a good balance between reducing risk and getting value.  I think you are expected to put them all on the same slip.  365 tend to give best value after 10am on Saturday, but you have to bet before noon.   There is a chance they have more places on Saturday.  The last big shouldn't matter, most horses don't drift in the National after noon, so everybody should be aiming to bet in this window and taking a price.   Aintree bookies are brutal on the National; it will be no surprise to see Tiger Roll start at 5/2 and a couple of others at 6/1.


If it is like previous years you don't have to bet them all on the same slip.

They just keep refunding until you have had your £125 back.

So you can have £125 EW on something and get £125 refunded which if I remember you can withdraw if you like

or

You can have £62.50 EW get £62.50 back, have £31.25 EW get £31.25 back, have £15.66 EW and get £15.66 back etc
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« Reply #135623 on: April 04, 2019, 01:04:36 PM »


Note to self.  Don't click on that link if on wifi. 

Avoid the really short ones, don't pick too many if you want max value.

Personally I'd look for 3 or 4 at 16/1 up.   It is probably a good balance between reducing risk and getting value.  I think you are expected to put them all on the same slip.  365 tend to give best value after 10am on Saturday, but you have to bet before noon.   There is a chance they have more places on Saturday.  The last big shouldn't matter, most horses don't drift in the National after noon, so everybody should be aiming to bet in this window and taking a price.   Aintree bookies are brutal on the National; it will be no surprise to see Tiger Roll start at 5/2 and a couple of others at 6/1.






Getting a ton on TR at effectively double the price makes that a value bet to me. The way he won last time makes me think he is still on the improve.

He wont be my only bet, but I have waited to back him knowing this offer was on the way(hopefully!).
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« Reply #135624 on: April 04, 2019, 02:02:32 PM »


Note to self.  Don't click on that link if on wifi. 

Avoid the really short ones, don't pick too many if you want max value.

Personally I'd look for 3 or 4 at 16/1 up.   It is probably a good balance between reducing risk and getting value.  I think you are expected to put them all on the same slip.  365 tend to give best value after 10am on Saturday, but you have to bet before noon.   There is a chance they have more places on Saturday.  The last big shouldn't matter, most horses don't drift in the National after noon, so everybody should be aiming to bet in this window and taking a price.   Aintree bookies are brutal on the National; it will be no surprise to see Tiger Roll start at 5/2 and a couple of others at 6/1.






Getting a ton on TR at effectively double the price makes that a value bet to me. The way he won last time makes me think he is still on the improve.

He wont be my only bet, but I have waited to back him knowing this offer was on the way(hopefully!).

I like Tiger Roll a lot, but 7/2 and getting half stake back is not double the price.   He is 9/2 on BF.   Obviously 7/2 with half stake back beats bf, and I wouldn't put you off. 

I definitely wouldn't back him each way on the offer,  betfair are 2/1+ 4 places.   Each way you get 7/10 5 places, which is clearly bad, and if it places you get 0.85 x original each way stake, but you'd get 0.5 from win only from the offer.  Backing Tiger Roll each way is just rank bad value with or without the offer.   
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #135625 on: April 04, 2019, 02:31:24 PM »


Note to self.  Don't click on that link if on wifi. 

Avoid the really short ones, don't pick too many if you want max value.

Personally I'd look for 3 or 4 at 16/1 up.   It is probably a good balance between reducing risk and getting value.  I think you are expected to put them all on the same slip.  365 tend to give best value after 10am on Saturday, but you have to bet before noon.   There is a chance they have more places on Saturday.  The last big shouldn't matter, most horses don't drift in the National after noon, so everybody should be aiming to bet in this window and taking a price.   Aintree bookies are brutal on the National; it will be no surprise to see Tiger Roll start at 5/2 and a couple of others at 6/1.






Getting a ton on TR at effectively double the price makes that a value bet to me. The way he won last time makes me think he is still on the improve.

He wont be my only bet, but I have waited to back him knowing this offer was on the way(hopefully!).

I like Tiger Roll a lot, but 7/2 and getting half stake back is not double the price.   He is 9/2 on BF.   Obviously 7/2 with half stake back beats bf, and I wouldn't put you off. 

I definitely wouldn't back him each way on the offer,  betfair are 2/1+ 4 places.   Each way you get 7/10 5 places, which is clearly bad, and if it places you get 0.85 x original each way stake, but you'd get 0.5 from win only from the offer.  Backing Tiger Roll each way is just rank bad value with or without the offer.   

Effectively, and never suggested backing him ew., he can also drift, if you take BF he cant.....

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« Reply #135626 on: April 04, 2019, 02:42:13 PM »


Note to self.  Don't click on that link if on wifi. 

Avoid the really short ones, don't pick too many if you want max value.

Personally I'd look for 3 or 4 at 16/1 up.   It is probably a good balance between reducing risk and getting value.  I think you are expected to put them all on the same slip.  365 tend to give best value after 10am on Saturday, but you have to bet before noon.   There is a chance they have more places on Saturday.  The last big shouldn't matter, most horses don't drift in the National after noon, so everybody should be aiming to bet in this window and taking a price.   Aintree bookies are brutal on the National; it will be no surprise to see Tiger Roll start at 5/2 and a couple of others at 6/1.






Getting a ton on TR at effectively double the price makes that a value bet to me. The way he won last time makes me think he is still on the improve.

He wont be my only bet, but I have waited to back him knowing this offer was on the way(hopefully!).

I like Tiger Roll a lot, but 7/2 and getting half stake back is not double the price.   He is 9/2 on BF.   Obviously 7/2 with half stake back beats bf, and I wouldn't put you off. 

I definitely wouldn't back him each way on the offer,  betfair are 2/1+ 4 places.   Each way you get 7/10 5 places, which is clearly bad, and if it places you get 0.85 x original each way stake, but you'd get 0.5 from win only from the offer.  Backing Tiger Roll each way is just rank bad value with or without the offer.   

Effectively, and never suggested backing him ew., he can also drift, if you take BF he cant.....



I never suggested you did Adz, but just making it clear to the OP.  In my original post I meant to say avoid the short priced ones each way. 

I don't think it matters if you back 3 or 4 bigger priced ones each way, as taking each way on a bigger priced horse makes less difference than a one off free bet on a short one.  You could even back Tiger Roll win only and one or two others each way at bigger prices. 
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #135627 on: April 04, 2019, 03:07:35 PM »

Bet365 offer is EW only
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« Reply #135628 on: April 04, 2019, 04:38:48 PM »

Bet365 offer is EW only

ha, well spotted.   I am definitely losing it, I am sure I read that at the time and forgot it.   

Definitely take those 12/1 up who are likely to stay in soft ground.   There aren't that many. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #135629 on: April 04, 2019, 05:13:01 PM »

With it being an each way offer and adz saying he waited for the offer to bet tiger roll but then said he isn’t betting it each way, I’m confused
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