Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

I grabbed a sample of 20k flat turf runners - 1083 races all 16+ runner handicaps.  I thought that the amended terms would generally be worse for punters, but that isn't really the case.

First the actual place return if backing all 20k horses at SP

1/4 4 19336
1/5 5 20850
1/6 6 22479
1/7 7 24007

obviously this sample has some 16 runner races, so 1/7, 7 places in those cases is not really something that would be offered very often.....

The return of stake when a horse places is the main advantage - 1/3 odds 3 places only returns 17629!  When you consider though that the less places bet is actually getting "nearer" to a win bet with a huge book %*, it makes sense.

I theorised that more places meant that the edge moved from shorter priced horses to longer ones, but again that isn't the case

less than 10-1 shots 4334 runners place

1/4 4 etc
4373
4645
4792
4906

So once again the return improves even with short prices.

*The win return at SP is a horrific 12865 for 20k staked!  So the most important lesson from all this is, simply take the best early price you can get.

[Doobs]

I grabbed a sample of 20k flat turf runners - 1083 races all 16+ runner handicaps.  I thought that the amended terms would generally be worse for punters, but that isn't really the case.

First the actual place return if backing all 20k horses at SP

1/4 4 19336
1/5 5 20850
1/6 6 22479
1/7 7 24007

obviously this sample has some 16 runner races, so 1/7, 7 places in those cases is not really something that would be offered very often.....

The return of stake when a horse places is the main advantage - 1/3 odds 3 places only returns 17629!  When you consider though that the less places bet is actually getting "nearer" to a win bet with a huge book %*, it makes sense.

I theorised that more places meant that the edge moved from shorter priced horses to longer ones, but again that isn't the case

less than 10-1 shots 4334 runners place

1/4 4 etc
4373
4645
4792
4906

So once again the return improves even with short prices.

*The win return at SP is a horrific 12865 for 20k staked!  So the most important lesson from all this is, simply take the best early price you can get.

I have redone the maths, and think I must have been wrong when I did them originally, or maybe I was looking at something like 10 quarter first 4 or 9/1 fifth first 5. Either way I was wrong.

A quarter first 4 and a fifth first 5 are pretty much the same, and a seventh first 7 is a bit better (assuming a correctly priced 10/1 chance in a 20 runner race).  The differences are small (circa .7% difference between quarter first 4 and a fifth first 5, and 3% between a seventh first 7 and quarter first 4)

So the lesson is that the price is by far the most important thing, and Geoff Banks has been unfairly criticised for his seventh first 7 offer.  There are better prices around and better offers around (such as a quarter first 5 (365) and a fifth first 6 (ladbrokes, hills and paddy power).  If you have a really long one, close to betfair, Geoff Banks is ok.  If he'll lay you a bet anyway.

[tikay]

^^^^^^


"....A quarter first 4 and a fifth first 5 are pretty much the same..."

So, unless I'm misunderstanding the debate, why do so many say fifth first 5 is a lot worse than quarter first 4?

[horseplayer]

Really like Min today 10/3 seems more than fair, think the last day can be ignored and Walsh riding well again

had a small bet

[BigAdz]

Really like Min today 10/3 seems more than fair, think the last day can be ignored and Walsh riding well again

had a small bet

LOL..just LOL


Just to try and prove a point eh.

[doubleup]

^^^^^^


"....A quarter first 4 and a fifth first 5 are pretty much the same..."

So, unless I'm misunderstanding the debate, why do so many say fifth first 5 is a lot worse than quarter first 4?

they should probably consider if they would like to be offered 1/40 first 40 in the GN

[RobS]

I grabbed a sample of 20k flat turf runners - 1083 races all 16+ runner handicaps.  I thought that the amended terms would generally be worse for punters, but that isn't really the case.

First the actual place return if backing all 20k horses at SP

1/4 4 19336
1/5 5 20850
1/6 6 22479
1/7 7 24007

obviously this sample has some 16 runner races, so 1/7, 7 places in those cases is not really something that would be offered very often.....

The return of stake when a horse places is the main advantage - 1/3 odds 3 places only returns 17629!  When you consider though that the less places bet is actually getting "nearer" to a win bet with a huge book %*, it makes sense.

I theorised that more places meant that the edge moved from shorter priced horses to longer ones, but again that isn't the case

less than 10-1 shots 4334 runners place

1/4 4 etc
4373
4645
4792
4906

So once again the return improves even with short prices.

*The win return at SP is a horrific 12865 for 20k staked!  So the most important lesson from all this is, simply take the best early price you can get

Thanks for posting this, brilliant research.
Always been confident that 1/4 4 is not better than 1/5 5 in general.

Just goes to show that those that write with the most confidence or authority can actually be wrong sometimes.

[Doobs]

^^^^^^


"....A quarter first 4 and a fifth first 5 are pretty much the same..."

So, unless I'm misunderstanding the debate, why do so many say fifth first 5 is a lot worse than quarter first 4?

I don't know.   As I said I did some maths a few months ago and must have cocked up.  I can't speak for anyone else. 

Everyone makes mistakes, and I make more as I get older.  Nothing new there. 

[horseplayer]

We have the value here with Min anyway all we can do

[arbboy]

We have the value here with Min anyway all we can do

cheers John.  Different class as usual. 

[Chompy]

Great stuff, win or lose horsey, top bombing.

[arbboy]

https://twitter.com/racingblogger/status/1114172350923247617

blogger knew as well must have been where tthe money come from.  Not Horsey!

[arbboy]

fuck me john i could have ridden that home never mind a bad out of form Rubyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[Chompy]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

Given an absolute peach by a jockey at the top of his game. He is so good round here.

TWENTY lengths, hard on the snaff. Beautifully presented at every fence.

Top work JB.

[Doobs]

Great stuff John.