Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Alison Riske with a very tough draw at Wimbledon. Quarter one is one of the toughest I have ever seen in a Grand Slam. She plays big hitting Julia Goerges tomorrow - Goerges certainly has a very good chance of a deep run too.

I meant she is playing Vekic. Very good grasscourter!

[dino1980]

Without Zaha winning Palace penalties I can only see Palace struggling. Sorry Ant. Not sure Wilfy gets the recognition he deserves and craves so badly yet.

Where we think he's going though? Arsenal surely can't afford him and Spuds seem to have other targets. Germany?

That aside, my gut feeling is I couldn't back a non penalty taker for the golden boot next season given the changes.

Hey Chompy,

There’s fairly strong evidence that VAR doesn’t increase the number of penalties awarded and that the World Cup was just an anomaly over a small sample size.
https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/05/25/var-impact-on-fpl-may-not-be-straight-forward/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/06/25/var-increases-refereeing-accuracy-but-not-the-total-penalty-count

[Tal]

Le Tour de France

Cycling isn't my field of expertise. I only follow the big tours, so keeping this modest as a recommendation.

Points Classification is the "maillot vert" for the sprinters.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

Sagan is dominant but 4/9.

This year's tour is absolutely brutal: the first half is flat, with a time trial and some bunch sprints, but to win the green jersey you have to finish the whole tour.

The second half is utterly rotten, including three hideous days in the alps (stages 18, 19 and 20) where the riders will spend much of it over 2,000 feet above sea level and will visit the Col de l'Iserian, which isn't often on the schedule.

https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jul/01/tour-de-france-2019-stage-by-stage-guide

Basically, the schedulers this year are trying to kill the pure sprinters. Some will be finishing their Tour at halfway and heading home. All riders have to finish within a time period of the winner and that usually kills sprinters off in tough mountain years. This is despite recent efforts to relax the time requirement.

Sagan sadly can climb but injuries happen and i can't touch 4/9. Ewan is a flat sprinter and he and Groenewegen can't be odds on to finish the tour.

I expect a lot of sprinters to exit around stage 12, either by their own decision or in the latter stages through the stopwatch. This makes the race shape juicy, if we can find the right guy, because there are effectively DNFs in the market.

The schedulers are trying to get a climber who happens to have a good kick in a finish to have a chance of toppling Sagan. Now there just happens to be one who just so happens to be (checks notes) French. None of this is a secret, but last year's King of the Mountains will relish the intermediate sprints in the latter stages. If he can pick up a stage win in the first half, he will be a serious contender. Barring injury, he will be competing for a place in something in the later stages. As a points collector (rather than pure race winner), he is the sort of guy we want onside.

And we get 6.25/1 he gets a place in the points, with a shot at 25/1 he's wearing green on the Champs Elysées.

Julian Alaphillipe, s'il vous plaît.



£20 each way with Billy Mountains, Betwhey or Beteveryday.

Allez!

[4KSuited]

Alison Riske with a very tough draw at Wimbledon. Quarter one is one of the toughest I have ever seen in a Grand Slam. She plays big hitting Julia Goerges tomorrow - Goerges certainly has a very good chance of a deep run too.

I meant she is playing Vekic. Very good grasscourter!

Very good comeback from 0-3 down in the 3rd puts her into Round 2

[bergeroo]

Alaphilippe is favourite to defend the KOM jersey he won last year. Are we thinking he will abandon the quest for that because of the big climbs? However I think he will go for it again, so surely he can't go for green and polka dot?

If indeed you think he goes for Green then surely you must bet someone in the Polka Dot market. If you think he doesn't suit the big mountains then perhaps you want to take him on anyway?

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains

Le Tour de France

Cycling isn't my field of expertise. I only follow the big tours, so keeping this modest as a recommendation.

Points Classification is the "maillot vert" for the sprinters.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

Sagan is dominant but 4/9.

This year's tour is absolutely brutal: the first half is flat, with a time trial and some bunch sprints, but to win the green jersey you have to finish the whole tour.

The second half is utterly rotten, including three hideous days in the alps (stages 18, 19 and 20) where the riders will spend much of it over 2,000 feet above sea level and will visit the Col de l'Iserian, which isn't often on the schedule.

https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jul/01/tour-de-france-2019-stage-by-stage-guide

Basically, the schedulers this year are trying to kill the pure sprinters. Some will be finishing their Tour at halfway and heading home. All riders have to finish within a time period of the winner and that usually kills sprinters off in tough mountain years. This is despite recent efforts to relax the time requirement.

Sagan sadly can climb but injuries happen and i can't touch 4/9. Ewan is a flat sprinter and he and Groenewegen can't be odds on to finish the tour.

I expect a lot of sprinters to exit around stage 12, either by their own decision or in the latter stages through the stopwatch. This makes the race shape juicy, if we can find the right guy, because there are effectively DNFs in the market.

The schedulers are trying to get a climber who happens to have a good kick in a finish to have a chance of toppling Sagan. Now there just happens to be one who just so happens to be (checks notes) French. None of this is a secret, but last year's King of the Mountains will relish the intermediate sprints in the latter stages. If he can pick up a stage win in the first half, he will be a serious contender. Barring injury, he will be competing for a place in something in the later stages. As a points collector (rather than pure race winner), he is the sort of guy we want onside.

And we get 6.25/1 he gets a place in the points, with a shot at 25/1 he's wearing green on the Champs Elysées.

Julian Alaphillipe, s'il vous plaît.



£20 each way with Billy Mountains, Betwhey or Beteveryday.

Allez!

[Tal]

Alaphilippe is favourite to defend the KOM jersey he won last year. Are we thinking he will abandon the quest for that because of the big climbs? However I think he will go for it again, so surely he can't go for green and polka dot?

If indeed you think he goes for Green then surely you must bet someone in the Polka Dot market. If you think he doesn't suit the big mountains then perhaps you want to take him on anyway?

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains

Le Tour de France

Cycling isn't my field of expertise. I only follow the big tours, so keeping this modest as a recommendation.

Points Classification is the "maillot vert" for the sprinters.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

Sagan is dominant but 4/9.

This year's tour is absolutely brutal: the first half is flat, with a time trial and some bunch sprints, but to win the green jersey you have to finish the whole tour.

The second half is utterly rotten, including three hideous days in the alps (stages 18, 19 and 20) where the riders will spend much of it over 2,000 feet above sea level and will visit the Col de l'Iserian, which isn't often on the schedule.

https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jul/01/tour-de-france-2019-stage-by-stage-guide

Basically, the schedulers this year are trying to kill the pure sprinters. Some will be finishing their Tour at halfway and heading home. All riders have to finish within a time period of the winner and that usually kills sprinters off in tough mountain years. This is despite recent efforts to relax the time requirement.

Sagan sadly can climb but injuries happen and i can't touch 4/9. Ewan is a flat sprinter and he and Groenewegen can't be odds on to finish the tour.

I expect a lot of sprinters to exit around stage 12, either by their own decision or in the latter stages through the stopwatch. This makes the race shape juicy, if we can find the right guy, because there are effectively DNFs in the market.

The schedulers are trying to get a climber who happens to have a good kick in a finish to have a chance of toppling Sagan. Now there just happens to be one who just so happens to be (checks notes) French. None of this is a secret, but last year's King of the Mountains will relish the intermediate sprints in the latter stages. If he can pick up a stage win in the first half, he will be a serious contender. Barring injury, he will be competing for a place in something in the later stages. As a points collector (rather than pure race winner), he is the sort of guy we want onside.

And we get 6.25/1 he gets a place in the points, with a shot at 25/1 he's wearing green on the Champs Elysées.

Julian Alaphillipe, s'il vous plaît.



£20 each way with Billy Mountains, Betwhey or Beteveryday.

Allez!

I don't have a strong view on KOM. There's a few guys with chances in that and Alaphillipe being fav to defend makes sense. Winning both would obviously be outrageous. I wonder whether Quickstep might give Mas a go at KOM, because the schedule might be a bit much for someone who isn't a pure climber.

Lazy thing to do is pick a Columbian.

I prefer Alaphillipe at 25/1 for Green for EW value to any of the KOM prices.

[TightEnd]

Hills £6 ew limited

Julian Alaphilippe Points Classification @ 25/1
Tour De France
Wed Jul 03 2019 10:28:29
Receipt ID:
O/0457483/0002429/F
Bet Type:
Single Bet
Total Stake
12.00
Estimated Returns
199.50
3 places at 1/4

betfred limited to £10 ew at 20

Single E/W
Alaphilippe, Julian @ 20/1
Tour De France 2019 Outrights

Points Classification

Bet Ref.
1433/1924
Stake
£20.00
Est. Returns
£270.00
Summary
Total Stake
£20.00
Total Estimated Returns
£270.00

[arbboy]

Anyone watching Love Island think the current short priced jollies are way too short?  Struggling to find any serious punters to bounce my ideas off!

[scotty2hatty]

Anyone watching Love Island think the current short priced jollies are way too short?  Struggling to find any serious punters to bounce my ideas off!

I hadn't looked at prices and after reading this I had a look on Oddschecker and they were the exact price I expected, although I could have been swayed by your post.

The problem is that a chunk of the remainder are so dislikeable, whilst some of the others just can't be warmed to.

Anton plus partner would be an alternative, although they're not priced up. Maura is another who I think people may like but I feel like she chose a poor partner last night. Jordan is another who is decent but partnerless.

Can't see Amber, Anna, Lucie, Danny doing anything. Curtis and Amy clearly not right so would take some turnaround for them to win it. Michael needs to come across well this week to give him and his partner a 3 week shot at it.

You've got to consider the random elements too, Love Island throwing in random binnings etc. Although there's not too long to go and I'm sure the last week or so is a cruise.

But to answer your question, I definitely wouldn't be backing them at 1/3-1/4, just not sure of the best course of action to take them on.

[arbboy]

Anyone watching Love Island think the current short priced jollies are way too short?  Struggling to find any serious punters to bounce my ideas off!

I hadn't looked at prices and after reading this I had a look on Oddschecker and they were the exact price I expected, although I could have been swayed by your post.

The problem is that a chunk of the remainder are so dislikeable, whilst some of the others just can't be warmed to.

Anton plus partner would be an alternative, although they're not priced up. Maura is another who I think people may like but I feel like she chose a poor partner last night. Jordan is another who is decent but partnerless.

Can't see Amber, Anna, Lucie, Danny doing anything. Curtis and Amy clearly not right so would take some turnaround for them to win it. Michael needs to come across well this week to give him and his partner a 3 week shot at it.

You've got to consider the random elements too, Love Island throwing in random binnings etc. Although there's not too long to go and I'm sure the last week or so is a cruise.

But to answer your question, I definitely wouldn't be backing them at 1/3-1/4, just not sure of the best course of action to take them on.

That's pretty much my view.   The surfer chick looked like she has had a boob job in the week out of the villa.  She looked amazing last night when she walked back in and i think Tommy is still thinking 'fuck me she is more my type naturally than fake molly'   Just think there are plenty more fireworks ahead for Tommy.   Only Amber is more needy and immature than Molly. 

[scotty2hatty]

Anyone watching Love Island think the current short priced jollies are way too short?  Struggling to find any serious punters to bounce my ideas off!

I hadn't looked at prices and after reading this I had a look on Oddschecker and they were the exact price I expected, although I could have been swayed by your post.

The problem is that a chunk of the remainder are so dislikeable, whilst some of the others just can't be warmed to.

Anton plus partner would be an alternative, although they're not priced up. Maura is another who I think people may like but I feel like she chose a poor partner last night. Jordan is another who is decent but partnerless.

Can't see Amber, Anna, Lucie, Danny doing anything. Curtis and Amy clearly not right so would take some turnaround for them to win it. Michael needs to come across well this week to give him and his partner a 3 week shot at it.

You've got to consider the random elements too, Love Island throwing in random binnings etc. Although there's not too long to go and I'm sure the last week or so is a cruise.

But to answer your question, I definitely wouldn't be backing them at 1/3-1/4, just not sure of the best course of action to take them on.

That's pretty much my view.   The surfer chick looked like she has had a boob job in the week out of the villa.  She looked amazing last night when she walked back in and i think Tommy is still thinking 'fuck me she is more my type naturally than fake molly'   Just think there are plenty more fireworks ahead for Tommy.   Only Amber is more needy and immature than Molly. 

You've not been looking close enough Arb, I spotted them bad boys a few weeks ago.

[StuartHopkin]

Lucie is way more fake than Molly-Mae!

I can't see anyone coming close to Tommy and Molly now unless the producers throw a spanner in the works.

[Juperjiper]

Tommy and molly were 4/5 before last nights ep which was nuts when you knew what was going to happen

[StuartHopkin]

Tommy and molly were 4/5 before last nights ep which was nuts when you knew what was going to happen

Everyone knew how it was going to play out, but I didn't realise I was going to shed a tear

[arbboy]

Tommy and molly were 4/5 before last nights ep which was nuts when you knew what was going to happen

Everyone knew how it was going to play out, but I didn't realise I was going to shed a tear

I was expecting Amy to get blown out but she didn't so it didn't exactly work out as planned.