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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13329930 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #137715 on: April 09, 2021, 10:39:08 AM »

Anyone else get the 356 Grand National offer? Any each way fancies anyone for this year. I know nothing about racing.

What is the offer? They won't lay me a tenner each way (and that isn't just 356, it is all of them), never mind send me an offer.

Without knowing the offer I am a bit loathe to rec e/w horses.

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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
StuartHopkin
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« Reply #137716 on: April 09, 2021, 11:31:04 AM »

Anyone else get the 356 Grand National offer? Any each way fancies anyone for this year. I know nothing about racing.

What is the offer? They won't lay me a tenner each way (and that isn't just 356, it is all of them), never mind send me an offer.

Without knowing the offer I am a bit loathe to rec e/w horses.





Half your stake back on EW bets
Max refund 125
Refunded in withdrawable cash
Can be over multiple bets

Would assume its hard to have a bad bet when your getting it half price but would be interested in your thoughts also Doobs
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bergeroo
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« Reply #137717 on: April 09, 2021, 12:19:02 PM »

So just because I am an idiot and need to check. Bet 125 each way, 250 total and then get 125 back, right?

 
Anyone else get the 356 Grand National offer? Any each way fancies anyone for this year. I know nothing about racing.

What is the offer? They won't lay me a tenner each way (and that isn't just 356, it is all of them), never mind send me an offer.

Without knowing the offer I am a bit loathe to rec e/w horses.





Half your stake back on EW bets
Max refund 125
Refunded in withdrawable cash
Can be over multiple bets

Would assume its hard to have a bad bet when your getting it half price but would be interested in your thoughts also Doobs
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AndrewT
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« Reply #137718 on: April 09, 2021, 01:30:48 PM »

Yes, they literally just give you half your stake money back after you place the bets.
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Doobs
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« Reply #137719 on: April 09, 2021, 01:46:05 PM »

So just because I am an idiot and need to check. Bet 125 each way, 250 total and then get 125 back, right?

 
Anyone else get the 356 Grand National offer? Any each way fancies anyone for this year. I know nothing about racing.

What is the offer? They won't lay me a tenner each way (and that isn't just 356, it is all of them), never mind send me an offer.

Without knowing the offer I am a bit loathe to rec e/w horses.





Half your stake back on EW bets
Max refund 125
Refunded in withdrawable cash
Can be over multiple bets

Would assume its hard to have a bad bet when your getting it half price but would be interested in your thoughts also Doobs

I haven't got the wording, but assume you lose then you get half your stake back.

I wouldn't go crazy and back too many or the offer gets less valuable.  

I'd also be looking at bigger priced horses as the National is funny.  A lot of the favourites will fall, or not stay well, so the place terms aren't great.   So 5/2 the place on a 10/1 chance isn't value and it kind of negates the offer, ie there is no point backing 3 10/1 chances one getting a place and then getting the £125 back you would have done if you had gone for a banzai.  As an example, Burrows Saint is 10/1, in a normal big runner handicap you'd expect shorter than 5/2 the 4 places, here Betfair has him at 4/1.  He is a tiny bit shorter than 5/2 6 places, but 1/4 first 6 on a short one is nowhere near the value it normally is.

I backed Secret Reprieve at a big price, but just got my money back as it failed to get in.  The other I backed was Anibale Fly, which is the right sort of price (28/1), ran well in the National last time off 9lbs higher, and has a touch of class.  Here you get 7/1 6 places, Betfair says he should be 4/1.  I'd definitely take the price on this one, as he is getting shorter if anthing.

I can't back anything anymore, so haven't backed it, but Blacklion is probably way too old, but is carrying hardly any weight and has finshed in the places before.  There is zero chance he is 16/1 to place and you get half yourmoney back anyway, so you may as well punt.   Mister Malarky is another that is 33/1, the win price is fine and probably should be shorter than 8/1 with 6 places.  He hasn't gone this far bafore, but looks like he should get the trip.  I like Discorama a lot, but wouldn't take 16/1.  356 tend to match prices at 10am, so I'd hope to get 20/1 then if I was backing it.

You could back 2 or 3 of that lot, my preference would be to at least include Anibale Fly.  

  
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
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« Reply #137720 on: April 09, 2021, 01:52:14 PM »

Ha, just thought I'd check what pokerstars were offering on the National, as I don't think I am restricted as I think I have only ever had one bet with them. 

Anibale Fly 25/1, Mister Malarky 22/1, Blacklion 50/1. The each way terms are a fifth first 5.  Cry
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #137721 on: April 09, 2021, 02:03:21 PM »

So just because I am an idiot and need to check. Bet 125 each way, 250 total and then get 125 back, right?

 
Anyone else get the 356 Grand National offer? Any each way fancies anyone for this year. I know nothing about racing.

What is the offer? They won't lay me a tenner each way (and that isn't just 356, it is all of them), never mind send me an offer.

Without knowing the offer I am a bit loathe to rec e/w horses.





Half your stake back on EW bets
Max refund 125
Refunded in withdrawable cash
Can be over multiple bets

Would assume its hard to have a bad bet when your getting it half price but would be interested in your thoughts also Doobs

I haven't got the wording, but assume you lose then you get half your stake back.

I wouldn't go crazy and back too many or the offer gets less valuable.  

I'd also be looking at bigger priced horses as the National is funny.  A lot of the favourites will fall, or not stay well, so the place terms aren't great.   So 5/2 the place on a 10/1 chance isn't value and it kind of negates the offer, ie there is no point backing 3 10/1 chances one getting a place and then getting the £125 back you would have done if you had gone for a banzai.  As an example, Burrows Saint is 10/1, in a normal big runner handicap you'd expect shorter than 5/2 the 4 places, here Betfair has him at 4/1.  He is a tiny bit shorter than 5/2 6 places, but 1/4 first 6 on a short one is nowhere near the value it normally is.

I backed Secret Reprieve at a big price, but just got my money back as it failed to get in.  The other I backed was Anibale Fly, which is the right sort of price (28/1), ran well in the National last time off 9lbs higher, and has a touch of class.  Here you get 7/1 6 places, Betfair says he should be 4/1.  I'd definitely take the price on this one, as he is getting shorter if anthing.

I can't back anything anymore, so haven't backed it, but Blacklion is probably way too old, but is carrying hardly any weight and has finshed in the places before.  There is zero chance he is 16/1 to place and you get half yourmoney back anyway, so you may as well punt.   Mister Malarky is another that is 33/1, the win price is fine and probably should be shorter than 8/1 with 6 places.  He hasn't gone this far bafore, but looks like he should get the trip.  I like Discorama a lot, but wouldn't take 16/1.  356 tend to match prices at 10am, so I'd hope to get 20/1 then if I was backing it.

You could back 2 or 3 of that lot, my preference would be to at least include Anibale Fly.  

  

Half stake back instantly when you place the bet you don't have to wait for it to be settled so you get it win or lose
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Doobs
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« Reply #137722 on: April 09, 2021, 02:11:53 PM »

So just because I am an idiot and need to check. Bet 125 each way, 250 total and then get 125 back, right?

 
Anyone else get the 356 Grand National offer? Any each way fancies anyone for this year. I know nothing about racing.

What is the offer? They won't lay me a tenner each way (and that isn't just 356, it is all of them), never mind send me an offer.

Without knowing the offer I am a bit loathe to rec e/w horses.





Half your stake back on EW bets
Max refund 125
Refunded in withdrawable cash
Can be over multiple bets

Would assume its hard to have a bad bet when your getting it half price but would be interested in your thoughts also Doobs

I haven't got the wording, but assume you lose then you get half your stake back.

I wouldn't go crazy and back too many or the offer gets less valuable.  

I'd also be looking at bigger priced horses as the National is funny.  A lot of the favourites will fall, or not stay well, so the place terms aren't great.   So 5/2 the place on a 10/1 chance isn't value and it kind of negates the offer, ie there is no point backing 3 10/1 chances one getting a place and then getting the £125 back you would have done if you had gone for a banzai.  As an example, Burrows Saint is 10/1, in a normal big runner handicap you'd expect shorter than 5/2 the 4 places, here Betfair has him at 4/1.  He is a tiny bit shorter than 5/2 6 places, but 1/4 first 6 on a short one is nowhere near the value it normally is.

I backed Secret Reprieve at a big price, but just got my money back as it failed to get in.  The other I backed was Anibale Fly, which is the right sort of price (28/1), ran well in the National last time off 9lbs higher, and has a touch of class.  Here you get 7/1 6 places, Betfair says he should be 4/1.  I'd definitely take the price on this one, as he is getting shorter if anthing.

I can't back anything anymore, so haven't backed it, but Blacklion is probably way too old, but is carrying hardly any weight and has finshed in the places before.  There is zero chance he is 16/1 to place and you get half yourmoney back anyway, so you may as well punt.   Mister Malarky is another that is 33/1, the win price is fine and probably should be shorter than 8/1 with 6 places.  He hasn't gone this far bafore, but looks like he should get the trip.  I like Discorama a lot, but wouldn't take 16/1.  356 tend to match prices at 10am, so I'd hope to get 20/1 then if I was backing it.

You could back 2 or 3 of that lot, my preference would be to at least include Anibale Fly.  

  

Half stake back instantly when you place the bet you don't have to wait for it to be settled so you get it win or lose

Ah, so it looks like you get it regardless of any winnings, and it doesn't effect your winnings.  I don't think they used to do it that way.

I don't think it changes much, the each way bets are still better value on the bigger priced horses.  It does mean that you can bet a few more if you want to reduce variance.  I wouldn't go too far though, as a 356 account has so much value that I wouln't want to lose it by taking the piss.  The future as a Stars only fixed odds gambler is really grim.

EDIT

Ha FML, 356 are quarter first 5 not 6, so the place terms aren't as good as I thought.  Even more reason to avoid the short ones, and go for the longer priced ones.  The bets are all still good value because of the offer, so don't worry too much.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2021, 02:20:44 PM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #137723 on: April 09, 2021, 02:17:40 PM »

Why are place odds so out of line with what we'd usually expect? If something's fave, why is he suddenly unlikely to get 2nd-5th in this race vs say 3m4f?

It's a gigantic field but large field flat handicaps don't show the same discrepancies afaik. I'm sure I'm wrong but the C&D should be a red herring - it's still nags going round a field at the end of the day.

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« Reply #137724 on: April 09, 2021, 02:24:29 PM »

Why are place odds so out of line with what we'd usually expect? If something's fave, why is he suddenly unlikely to get 2nd-5th in this race vs say 3m4f?

It's a gigantic field but large field flat handicaps don't show the same discrepancies afaik. I'm sure I'm wrong but the C&D should be a red herring - it's still nags going round a field at the end of the day.



up to 75% of the field might not finish though because of the fences/others falling or bringing the better horses down to give themselves a chance to place.  Flat handicappers don't have that problem.
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Doobs
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« Reply #137725 on: April 09, 2021, 02:26:51 PM »

Why are place odds so out of line with what we'd usually expect? If something's fave, why is he suddenly unlikely to get 2nd-5th in this race vs say 3m4f?

It's a gigantic field but large field flat handicaps don't show the same discrepancies afaik. I'm sure I'm wrong but the C&D should be a red herring - it's still nags going round a field at the end of the day.



up to 75% of the field might not finish though because of the fences/others falling or bringing the better horses down to give themselves a chance to place.  Flat handicappers don't have that problem.

and betfair has a place market that is going to be pretty strong tomorrow where anybody can back their opinion. 
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« Reply #137726 on: April 09, 2021, 02:51:44 PM »

Oh yes I know I'm definitely wrong I'm just surprised how different it is. It's curious how 50/1 shots have that win price due to reasons but can sneak into the places more often than usual. The variance isn't as huge as it used to be I thought - ground/fence/course safety wise. Anyway, definitely not going to go steaming into Betfair prices on a whim!

Good luck all - and well done to everyone with access to the 365 offer still. I would love to lose the account having had £125 ew on something tasty!
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Doobs
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« Reply #137727 on: April 09, 2021, 03:14:26 PM »

Oh yes I know I'm definitely wrong I'm just surprised how different it is. It's curious how 50/1 shots have that win price due to reasons but can sneak into the places more often than usual. The variance isn't as huge as it used to be I thought - ground/fence/course safety wise. Anyway, definitely not going to go steaming into Betfair prices on a whim!

Good luck all - and well done to everyone with access to the 365 offer still. I would love to lose the account having had £125 ew on something tasty!

I think you are confusing too things.  The variance should be compared with a mile handicap and not the National 10 years ago.  With a mile handicap, you know the horses go the distance, you know that your horse is going to place if at the front and going well 90% of the way through.  Neither thing applies in the National; they can still fall and can still fail to stay.   I haven't checked the data, but suspect you'd see a lot more short priced horses in 3rd, 4th and 5th in big flat races than you would in the National.  

Edit.

Just had a check against the Lincoln (It was just the most recent big flat handicap).  I checked the results back to 2011, and there were only 4 horses in 3rd or 4th that were over 20/1 (2 were in 2011).  In the National you have to go back to 2012 to find a race where 3rd and 4th were both 20/1 or lower (ie every year bar one there was at least one horse in 3rd or 4th over 20/1, sometimes two).  I could do more, but I think you'd struggle to find a big flat handicap where there are so many big priced winners at those places (maybe ones at very long distances have similar results?).   It is quite astonishing when you realise that the bookies always shorten the horses too much on the day, so it is likely every National runner starts significantly too short.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2021, 03:28:58 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #137728 on: April 10, 2021, 07:23:40 AM »

I am in. Go go go my horsies!
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« Reply #137729 on: April 10, 2021, 08:52:07 AM »

Anyone wanting one bet on the masters that is bang on the bf win market price and miles under the place price is Justin Thomas 11/1 1/5 first 9 at hills is the pick of all the bets based on ev compared to the highly liquid exchange market.  Getting 11/5 to place and nine places probably makes him close to 6/4 to place and you give up nothing on the win market commission free.

Not sure if the boss is even still placing bets nowadays but worth £50 ew if we are.

Going along nicely as we head into the weekend.

1 over on Day 1, he hit 5 under on Day 2 to leave himself 4 under & just three shots off the lead. Have to say, he looked in fine fettle yesterday. 
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