Tips for Tikay

[Simon Galloway]

I used to have a cricket coach who would frequently remark "crap shot son, but if it keeps going for 4, keep playing it"  (and the inverse, "lovely looking shot, but you keep getting out playing it, maybe leave it in the bag until August")

I don't know who the 9 horsey-types are, and how many of them are getting the best of it long term.  I don' think there are tons of value opportunities unless you take advantage of promotions for enhanced odds, pick up the odd snoozing bookie that hasn't updated and arb it, or you can consistently price up races better than the odds-compilers do.

 

[tikay]

I used to have a cricket coach who would frequently remark "crap shot son, but if it keeps going for 4, keep playing it"  (and the inverse, "lovely looking shot, but you keep getting out playing it, maybe leave it in the bag until August")

I don't know who the 9 horsey-types are, and how many of them are getting the best of it long term.  I don' think there are tons of value opportunities unless you take advantage of promotions for enhanced odds, pick up the odd snoozing bookie that hasn't updated and arb it, or you can consistently price up races better than the odds-compilers do. 

Thanks Simon.

We almost always get on at a better price than SP, though I'm not sure that has helped us much. There's not much solace in saying "I had 5/1 about a 3/1 loser".....

PS - I am NOT anti Horse race betting, unlike Basketball, where we lost too much. Horses was where I started betting, & I love the sport. I also back a good few myself, off-thread.

[millidonk]

Ditch the nags! Losing money = lose it

[Simon Galloway]

If you are consistently beating SP at a fair lick, I'd say it is time for BF Tutorial #2.  However, it takes time to execute well, time you may not have, or feel like putting in.  That way, you can capture the value of backing 5/1 shots that go off 5/2 and reduce variance.  OR, you can run it and embrace the variance, in theory it should come good if you keep beating the price.

[tikay]

If you are consistently beating SP at a fair lick, I'd say it is time for BF Tutorial #2.  However, it takes time to execute well, time you may not have, or feel like putting in.  That way, you can capture the value of backing 5/1 shots that go off 5/2 and reduce variance.  OR, you can run it and embrace the variance, in theory it should come good if you keep beating the price.

That WOULD work, we almost always get ahead of the price. But whilst I have a job, I just can't devote enough time to this, or know for sure I will be "available" to trade when needed.

Chompy, for example, always gives us prices that fall the next day, but I never know for sure when I'll be around. When I retire, or get the tin tack, of course, that will change, unless bad light stops play first.

[edgascoigne]

I don't think there are tons of value opportunities unless you take advantage of promotions for enhanced odds, pick up the odd snoozing bookie that hasn't updated and arb it, or you can consistently price up races better than the odds-compilers do. 

Thanks Simon.

We almost always get on at a better price than SP, though I'm not sure that has helped us much. There's not much solace in saying "I had 5/1 about a 3/1 loser".....

PS - I am NOT anti Horse race betting, unlike Basketball, where we lost too much. Horses was where I started betting, & I love the sport. I also back a good few myself, off-thread.

Hi Tikay,

Though the bolded is understandable, in order to make money longterm in punting this has to be exactly what you are looking to achieve. Not the loser bit, but the beating of the price.

The key however is not necessarily to analyse the price you got Vs the Industry Starting Price (ISP), but rather the Betfair Starting Price (BSP). Can't disclose too much but I have done a lot of work in the past around the latter and it is a very, very strong indicator of any given horse's true probability of winning. It's not bomb-proof, it's not exact, but in the long run it is a damn good indicator.

If I may backtrack a bit, the Betfair Starting Price is compiled through the reconciliation of a number of "At the start of the race" back and lay orders placed on the Exchange. The exchange market itself should, in theory, at the off be as perfect an indicator of a horse's chances as is available, as all information, and the confidence in said information, has now been declared in the market. The small guys have played, the big boys have played, the one that's been plotted up has been gambled. In theory the market reaches a perfect 100% and all 'slack' that was there is gone.

If you back a horse at 4/1, which goes off at 3/1, you may well feel very chuffed. You have indeed beaten the price, though this is no guaranteed augur of profit for two reasons. (a) The obvious one, it still has to win to realise a profit and (b) (less obvious) 3/1 is likely well inside the 'true' price, of which the best indicator is the BSP.

In this instance if the BSP <5.0, you have a +ve expectation on your bet, if the BSP > 5.0 you have a -ve expectation in spite of beating the ISP.

The margin/runner varies dependent on numerous factors (field size, make up of the race etc.) but in general the ISP will feature an average margin of about 1.5%/runner (used to be more before the advent of the exchange, punters here have never had it so good).

I don't know who the 9 horsey-types are, and how many of them are getting the best of it long term.  I don' think there are tons of value opportunities unless you take advantage of promotions for enhanced odds, pick up the odd snoozing bookie that hasn't updated and arb it, or you can consistently price up races better than the odds-compilers do. 

Would respectfully disagree Simon. Online horse racing punters remain the largest scourge of fixed-odds online offerings. Bookies have to price up tens, neigh (wahey), hundreds of runners, about which they often know very little. I would go as far as to suggest that it's the sport that is the most beatable with the least market knowledge.

Teeks - grab me at DTD if there this weekend and I'll chat through a few things.

Cheers, Ed

[tikay]

Really appreciated Ed, thank you.

I know I should feel good about getting 5/1 about a 3/1 loser, but I'm impatient, nitty, & pragmatic, & I just want to self-examine, to see if we are doing it right, or can do it better.

As to detail, the odds compliers cannot possibly price up every horse, in every race, at every meeting, correctly, so I assume it must be exploitable. But we have not exploited it yet. (Yes yes, sample size & all that).

I can't help  this process, I do it with everything.

believe in better

[Doobs]

Horse Racing.

I think I need some help with this.

Ranked by number of bets placed, it is our third busiest sport.

Only Football (193 bets, ROI +10%) & Golf (83 bets, negative ROI 4.5%) have more bets. I’m not fussed by the Golf number, because by it’s nature, we do 3 or 4 “darts” at a time, & the variance in 50/1 & 100/1 shots means we only want one to big bink to be profitable. They are good fun & value, too, giving us frequent 4 day sweats, & for that, I think a £116 loss is quite acceptable - one winner will drown that loss. 

In Horse Racing, we have placed 55 bets, & have a negative ROI of 11.78%, being a £272 loss. Those 55 bets have come from around 9 different people, so this is NOT a dig at any individual.

If we ignore horseracing bets designed as lay opportunities (where we have done OK I think, especially considering my ignorance of trading), our last Horse Racing winner was on Danedream,  no less than 6 weeks ago, which came in at a lovely 10/1.  Since then we have punted 7 losers on the bounce. I don't know the average price, but I'd guess 3/1 or 4/1.

Is this just normal variance? If so, should we continue, & wait for variance to turn in our favour? You know, of course, that I don’t know enough about the game these days to make reasoned judgements on horse tips, I need to rely on thread comment & feedback.

Is the answer to make MORE bets, less bets, or just carry on as we are?

And in case anyone wants to get defensive, don’t. It’s good practice, imo, in gambling, as in business, where I did this all the time, to concentrate on what is losing money, & leave profitable stuff to look after itself. 

Any thoughts?

If you had done this two weeks ago, I am fairly sure the answer would have been cricket.  Just takes a well placed max bet to change things.  That max football bet you put on a few months ago probably skewed that one for a while too.

Variance is clearly a problem, even with 55 bets, the difference between -11% and break even is a couple of 5/1 chances coming in.  

[tikay]

Horse Racing.

I think I need some help with this.

Ranked by number of bets placed, it is our third busiest sport.

Only Football (193 bets, ROI +10%) & Golf (83 bets, negative ROI 4.5%) have more bets. I’m not fussed by the Golf number, because by it’s nature, we do 3 or 4 “darts” at a time, & the variance in 50/1 & 100/1 shots means we only want one to big bink to be profitable. They are good fun & value, too, giving us frequent 4 day sweats, & for that, I think a £116 loss is quite acceptable - one winner will drown that loss. 

In Horse Racing, we have placed 55 bets, & have a negative ROI of 11.78%, being a £272 loss. Those 55 bets have come from around 9 different people, so this is NOT a dig at any individual.

If we ignore horseracing bets designed as lay opportunities (where we have done OK I think, especially considering my ignorance of trading), our last Horse Racing winner was on Danedream,  no less than 6 weeks ago, which came in at a lovely 10/1.  Since then we have punted 7 losers on the bounce. I don't know the average price, but I'd guess 3/1 or 4/1.

Is this just normal variance? If so, should we continue, & wait for variance to turn in our favour? You know, of course, that I don’t know enough about the game these days to make reasoned judgements on horse tips, I need to rely on thread comment & feedback.

Is the answer to make MORE bets, less bets, or just carry on as we are?

And in case anyone wants to get defensive, don’t. It’s good practice, imo, in gambling, as in business, where I did this all the time, to concentrate on what is losing money, & leave profitable stuff to look after itself. 

Any thoughts?

If you had done this two weeks ago, I am fairly sure the answer would have been cricket.  Just takes a well placed max bet to change things.  That max football bet you put on a few months ago probably skewed that one for a while too.

Variance is clearly a problem, even with 55 bets, the difference between -11% and break even is a couple of 5/1 chances coming in. 

You are absolutely correct as to cricket.

Equally, if Danedream had not got home, horseracing would be twice as bad......

There may not be a problem, almost certainly is not, but I have a need to question things.

In poker, the kids all think along the same lines, not because they really believe, but quite often because of peer pressure, & the "herd" mentality, which is perfectly usual, & normal, in young men. I just want to get the thinking right for myself, but need help to get there.

It (Horseracing & Fred) is probably just fine. I just wanted to air some views & thoughts, be re-assured if you like, though I won't necessarily accept everything I'm told.

Stubborn, see?

[edgascoigne]

Really appreciated Ed, thank you.

I know I should feel good about getting 5/1 about a 3/1 loser, but I'm impatient, nitty, & pragmatic, & I just want to self-examine, to see if we are doing it right, or can do it better.

As to detail, the odds compliers cannot possibly price up every horse, in every race, at every meeting, correctly, so I assume it must be exploitable. But we have not exploited it yet. (Yes yes, sample size & all that).

I can't help  this process, I do it with everything.

believe in better

It's completely understandable, and a perfectly normal emotion. In a way I worry more for those of us who are more excited by beating the price than finding a winner!

If you have the list of nags (ideally in a spreadsheet?) you have backed and associated prices, win/ew, date it ran and if at all possible the time of the bet placement (though this is not too important) pop it over and I will give you something that will blow your mind*.


* Disclaimer: unlikely to blow your mind though may prove vaguely useful.

[millidonk]

I'm always sceptacle about posting tips itt as I seem to be cursed, but...

Lille v FC Copenhagen 5/1 DNB everywhere or 8/1 outright on betvictor has to be value??

Unless someone can tell me what I am missing?

Copenhagen massively in form haven't been beaten in their last 10 matches, Lille have come off the boil and are W2 L2 DR2 for their last 6. First leg Copenhagen beat Lille 1-0!!

Lille have lost Eden Hazard and Joe Cole which has had a massive impact. This is an important game for Lille, but just because they have to win doesn't mean they will.

DNB worth £20 in my eyes. Would be interseted to see what the shrewdies say.

[TightEnd]

Would be interested to know if the Horse racing problems are in handicaps, or not

Probably impossible to go back and calculate it

[FUN4FRASER]

As expected....Newcastle price shortening all over the place

4-6 has now gone everywhere with the fixed odds bookies...the only place left is Betfair where you can request to place your bet at 1.66 (which is still okay in my opinion)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-aston-villa/winner

[horseplayer]

re horse racing

I said this before but 55 bets is still completely irrelevant as a sample

I no that all of my selections for this thread have started below the price suggested apart from two. This tells me i have spotted value as the market at the off of a horse race is a lot more accurate these days.

Infact three of them have traded at 1.20 or shorter (1-5 on) in running without winning.

I am getting confused again i thought the purpose of the thread was to provide tips on sporting events for tikay not how to arb, how to trade or how to squeeze a few quid through promotions.

[tikay]

re horse racing

I said this before but 55 bets is still completely irrelevant as a sample

I no that all of my selections for this thread have started below the price suggested apart from two. This tells me i have spotted value as the market at the off of a horse race is a lot more accurate these days.

Infact three of them have traded at 1.20 or shorter (1-5 on) in running without winning.

I am getting confused again i thought the purpose of the thread was to provide tips on sporting events for tikay not how to arb, how to trade or how to squeeze a few quid through promotions.

Yes, 100% on board as to sample size.

I think I'm sailing my own little ship here, but I think it is good practice to self examine, & do so repeatedly. That's all I'm doing.

Your tips always start at a lower price then when recommended. We just need that variance thing to kick in, I think.

As to your last para, I think a large part of the thread is about helping recreational punters (= mugs like me) understand the whole process better.  I punted for over 30 years beforing taking my sabbatical, & doubt I ever turned a profit in a single year. I will this year though, fo sho

And that is because we have all contributed with help, theories, ideas, da de da.