Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

Theo!!

Glad you copped.

[tikay]

I can't take credit for the Motherwell bet, as much as I would like to.  I have yet to have a winning bet backed by fred.

But another poster stuck it up, I spoke up in favour as I watch quite a good bit of Scottish football and find its the market were I have my biggest edge.  Especially the lower league games. 

Couldn't have gone any worse.  And to make matters worse my sky went down during the game.  I need one more goal in one of the cup games for a break even night, and it might feel like a win.  

Unlucky fella, hope that other goal goes in for you.

[Laxie]

Not sure if anyone else has mentioned it, but I posted in another thread and said I'd post it here too...

A version of Google poking fun at the NFL's current ref problems  http://www.replacementgoogle.com/

[MajorMajor]

Theo!!

[Rubbish2407]

Arsenal: Martinez, Miquel, Djourou, Angha, Yennaris, Santos, Coquelin, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott, Arshavin, Giroud

Looks a pretty attacking team for Arsenal and over 2.5 goals is 3/10 on Boyles (only place I've looked so far). So I was quite surprised that Arsenal -2 is 11/10? Any thoughts Gentlemen?

Pretty sure one of those odds was way out of line to the other and seeing as the score was 6-1, I guess it was the handicap one? Is my thinking flawed on this?

[AceHighSuited]

I can't take credit for the Motherwell bet, as much as I would like to.  I have yet to have a winning bet backed by fred.

But another poster stuck it up, I spoke up in favour as I watch quite a good bit of Scottish football and find its the market were I have my biggest edge.  Especially the lower league games. 

Couldn't have gone any worse.  And to make matters worse my sky went down during the game.  I need one more goal in one of the cup games for a break even night, and it might feel like a win.  

Unlucky fella, hope that other goal goes in for you.

WBA getting that would have been slightly better, but when begging one can't be too picky.  Thanks Gambling gods. 

[Tal]

Liverpool score a nice goal, if you abhor defending.

 No upsets tonight, as it stands, unless you count QPR

[kukushkin88]

I´ve been working on first touchdown scorer for the Thursday night match:

I started looking on the premise that the excellent Ray Rice is too short at 3/1. Baltimore occassionally take him out in goal line situations and imo they may be looking to look after him a bit in a short week after a 20 carry game vs the Pats. Although Baltimore like to pass it a little too much imo we probably should be looking at the back up RB and the FB. That leaves us with Bernard Pierce (33/1 with Ladbrokes which is too big) as the obvious choice. The other one I like is Vonta Leach, he´s already come in for Rice on the goal line and gone over for the TD once this year. Flacco also seems to like throwing it to him in unconventional spots where he might not get pciked up in goal line situations. He´s 33/1 as well, I´m not so sure on Leach I´d like to hear Bobby and others views.

I´d put a fiver on Pierce with Ladbrokes at 33/1 as this is simply too big and we´ll and see what the others think of Leach.

[tikay]

I´ve been working on first touchdown scorer for the Thursday night match:

I started looking on the premise that the excellent Ray Rice is too short at 3/1. Baltimore occassionally take him out in goal line situations and imo they may be looking to look after him a bit in a short week after a 20 carry game vs the Pats. Although Baltimore like to pass it a little too much imo we probably should be looking at the back up RB and the FB. That leaves us with Bernard Pierce (33/1 with Ladbrokes which is too big) as the obvious choice. The other one I like is Vonta Leach, he´s already come in for Rice on the goal line and gone over for the TD once this year. Flacco also seems to like throwing it to him in unconventional spots where he might not get pciked up in goal line situations. He´s 33/1 as well, I´m not so sure on Leach I´d like to hear Bobby and others views.

I´d put a fiver on Pierce with Ladbrokes at 33/1 as this is simply too big and we´ll and see what the others think of Leach.

Thank you Kuku.

As quality Banzais go, that looks proper good. We'll await comment on Leach, but we have £5 @ 33/1 with Ladbrokes on Bernard Pierce, First TD, Cleveland @ Baltimore.

ON


Selection33/1 - Bernard Pierce

EventCleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens NFL

MarketFirst TD scorer
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Bernard Pierce
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential Return: £170.00
Time: 26/09/12 22:17
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000143

[Horneris]

I quite like Vonta Leach but I think i'd rather back Pierce for last td at the 25s.

[bobby1]

Captivated by Lord Channing's wittering, just like in real life. Thanks for taking the time to put all this into words.

Can I ask, how do u know 88% of the tickets were for 49ers while the line was still going down? And where do Cantor and Hills say that a 49ers win would be terrible while the market seems to be moving the oppo way? Presumably these form part of your market reading....

hi Jeff,

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

[kukushkin88]

I quite like Vonta Leach but I think i'd rather back Pierce for last td at the 25s.

I´ll back it as well anyway because I rate your judgement but I´d like to understand if you don´t mind explaining why last is better in this spot?

Cheers

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0740, Thursday September 27th

PROFIT on Month £179.09

Unsettled Bets  - £569.70




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=12

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0800, Thursday September 27th

We lost £40 yesterday.

Two new bets placed, of which one completed, being a £40 loss on West Brom to beat Liverpool. We caught Liverpool on the wrong night, as simple as that.

Our Forward Bets now total just over £600, which is 20% of our bankroll. I think that's fine - in the early days the % was often far greater. Our discipline remains good (maybe a shade too nitty), & we have not had a MAX in an age. Quite right too, they should be reserved for gilt-edged value situations.

We had a £5 Banzai on a First TD in tonight's NFL game, being Pierce.

We missed a winning tip or two yesterday, but we dodged a bullet or two, too.

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

Did anyone listen to Talksport this morning? I tuned in just as a bookie was announcing that between 12 and 2 this afternoon, they are offering Europe at 2-1.

If only I'd heard the start where they mentioned the company...

Keep an eye or ear out this morning.

This half-information will lose its remaining relevance in six hours.