Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

QPR only just survived last season, yet have a third of the points after 11 games this season (4) that they had last season (12).

Today is a big day, Southampton at home

I suggested this a few weeks ago.

QPR still odds against to be relegated, same price as Norwich

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Won't be odds against for long if they don't win today.....

That's just ridiculous Rich.

For now, just £50, but am open to persuasion as to having more.

QPR to be relegated, £50 @ 8/5, Stan James.

ON

Barclays Premier League Relegation 2012/2013 : Relegation QPR 8/5
Total stake £50.00
Estimated return £130.00

[TightEnd]

On the Rugby, I was extremely tempted by Australia +8 on the handicaps at Evens (BetVictor)

Australia coming off a heavy defeat, need a win badly to secure a top 4 World Cup seed and how often do you see a Southern Hemisphere team an 8 point dog to an England team? Not often

It looks value, but I am just very wary of backing a side that won't play forits coach and might mail it in again. I'd like to know that they care!

Some concerning off the field stuff eg

Ravaged by injury, out of form and seemingly low on morale, the Wallabies need to win at Twickenham. If they lose, and France beat Argentina, the Wallabies would drop out of the top four to fifth, equalling their lowest position since the rankings were introduced in October 2003.

Pressure has been mounting on Australia head coach Robbie Deans. Over the summer, fly-half Quade Cooper described the Australian camp as "a toxic environment" and Wallabies legend David Campese is the latest to weigh in to the debate, saying "Deans has destroyed Australian rugby and I want him to go. We've got a team at the moment that can't catch and can't pass."

Despite ending New Zealand's hopes of a record-equalling 17th consecutive victory with a draw against the All Blacks last month, Australia have been below-par this year.

They have scored just 12 tries in their 12 Tests (in 2010, the year of their last visit to Twickenham, they touched down 49 times in 15 Tests), failing to score any in their last two games.

[Bazzaboy]

This has been troubling me. I should be happy that people are prepared to green up. It is about 100x harder to win on Betfair these days than it was 5 years ago but at least I know that there are people who enjoy giving total strangers who they'll never meet what they know to be a fair bet just because they don't really handle the swings of gambling very well.

 I'd like to bring the subject around to the excellent Van Gerwin tip though (well done all concerned). To those that took the 80/1,66/1 and 50/1 who know anything about darts and are capable of giving an opinion on the relative merits of the players I ask -"how much value was it?" "what should it have been?" and "what needed to happen for it to go to 16/1?"

 For those that greened out at 16/1 or 20/1...I think I remember one guy - not sure who, sort of posting that he had greened out and sort of saying: "job done". "We spotted the value and now we have locked it up". I meant to post at the time to ask wjhat had to happen for it to get from 80/1 to 20/1 and what were the chances of that happening? I also want to ask people that greened at that level why they suddenly didn't fancy this guy who two weeks earlier was the 2nd coming of the tungsten? I would guess that 80/1 was tremendous value as it was a price left up by some lazy odds-comilers, for whom the event was months away, and they hadn't been following recent events carefully. The 20/1 was a price more heavily scrutinised as he'd just won something a bit higher profile. It was possible that there had been an overeaction in going 20/1 and that it was a great lay but can I ask those that greened out if they would have layed 20/1 Van Gerwin if they were coming in fresh to this as a new event with no bet on.

 I'd also like to ask them (as I really can't appreciate the whole mindset of the greenout guys, if they even think of the lay at 16/1 or 20/1 as a lay - a bet against this guy they had been thinking of as the best ever player (potentially)?

Seeing as I put up the original bet I'll offer my tuppence worth.  MVG caught by eye with a couple of 100+ averages at the World Matchplay.  He then followed that up with some very good results on the Pro Tour (non televised floor events).  He has been in the PDC for 5 years and in that time had been a big underachiever never really looking like he was going to be the big star everyone thought he as going to be at 17.  However it looked to me that something had "clicked", he was hitting 100+ averages for fun on the floor and his floor form had always been pretty much correlated with his TV form (ie he hadn't been smashing them on the floor but choking on TV).  

Why was he 80/1?  Pretty much the reason you suggest.  His price had been there for months and his improved form had gone under the radar.  There were question marks over those at the top of the market. We had a player who appeared to be exposed but was starting to show that he was a very different animal to previous years.  At the time I'd have had him a 33/1 shot (there are not many players out there who have multiple 100+ averages).  I got as much as I could on at 80/1 and then a lot more at 66/1 and I've backed him at prices all the way down to 16/1 as given the new information (World Grand Prix win and continued dominance on the Pro Tour) we had he was still value at that price.  Have I greened out? No.  Have I considered it? No.  I think he will go shorter. If he was to get too short then I'd give it some thought.... And then probably let it ride.

[Karabiner]

QPR only just survived last season, yet have a third of the points after 11 games this season (4) that they had last season (12).

Today is a big day, Southampton at home

I suggested this a few weeks ago.

QPR still odds against to be relegated, same price as Norwich

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Won't be odds against for long if they don't win today.....

That's just ridiculous Rich.

For now, just £50, but am open to persuasion as to having more.

QPR to be relegated, £50 @ 8/5, Stan James.

ON

Barclays Premier League Relegation 2012/2013 : Relegation QPR 8/5
Total stake £50.00
Estimated return £130.00

I saw somewhere that today's QPR v Southampton match was dubbed "El Sackico".

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 10.50am, Saturday November 18th


We lost a nice (?) round £100 yesterday.

100% efficiency yesterday – 4 bets, 4 losers.

What strange things betting does to our minds – I really did not want to do the 2 NBA Bets, but I had a brain fart, & did them anyway, knowing that it was probably a bad idea, but hoping we might bink. Greed overcame discipline.

‘Nuff said.

Not much else to report really. Not a good day at the office, but at least we have some good bets in-running – The Test Match & Series (Tighty will report after close of play), MVG, Walsall, Dai Greene to win SPOTY. (What?!)

Click to see full-size image.

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[Karabiner]

Filetti not polpo!

www.cirio1856.co.uk/index.php?section=prodotti&cat=1-tomatoes&page=14-tomato-fillets

[TightEnd]

Jekyll and Hyde

England were bowled out for 191 from 69-5 and India went 1/7 at that point with England following on 330 behind.

Lowlight of that innings was a first ball dismissal for Bell at deep mid off trying to smash a spinner out of the ground. Horrible.

Generally though, Prior apart, the India spinners taking 8-125 in 50 overs was not just the pitch and the Indian bowling but an indictment of the very nervous approach by the batsmen and technical failings

Second time round, gone were the nervous prods and in came a more assertive batting approach which is encouraging for England for the rest of the series

A bit of the luck too, as Cook was so plumb lbw to one ball he could have made a crumble out of it. He was saved (karma for the BCCI refusing to use DRS), and went on to make England's first fifty of the match


Bets wise

India 11/8 for the first test is still well placed. England have to bat all tomorrow for starters to have a chance of saving it. The better batting second innings though has pushed India out to 2/5. Which is another press for those inclined, as once England lose one, it will be tougher for anyone coming in and partnerships down the line will be scarcer

Pujara top India Bat at 7-1 now 4/7!

India 4-0 is now 9-2 from 16-1. 3-0 is 3-1 favourite

Of those in trouble

Anderson at 4-1 top English bowler now 5-1 with Swann odds on and 4-1 ahead on the wicket count

and Bell top England bat, cough, at 8-1. He's now a bigger cough with a missed test to come for Mumbai.



Cricket nerd Joke

What is the Indian Alphabet?

a,b,c,e,f,g,h,i, j,k,l,m,n,o,p,q,t,u,v,w,x,y,z.

[Dubai]

When a market isn't liquid on bf there's no point quoting prices- ie The Wall 2 is probably 6/4-7/4 not 4/7

Love the reports bar the use of bf prices tho

[Waz1892]

Anyone better equipped in lower-league explain to me why Rochdale are 6/5 at home against Bristol rovers?

One of the best defences at home, with only 5 goals shipped.  They've scored only 7 at home, but 18 away, so clearly they can score, just need to adjust to the home scene.  I know crowds are low due to this fact, but 6/5 against a Rover side that lay in 20th place, with only 1 from 7 away and scoring only 6 themselves.

rochdale unbeaten in 4 aswell, and a woeful performance mid-week, given them the reason to bounce back -surely?

My tip for the weekend.

views?

[TightEnd]

When a market isn't liquid on bf there's no point quoting prices- ie The Wall 2 is probably 6/4-7/4 not 4/7

Love the reports bar the use of bf prices tho

I just take the best price off oddschecker, no more research than that....generally the trad bookmakers don't form their new markets til several hours later, and I want to get a quick write up out

[Dubai]

Yeah but I know bookies don't normally update them series bets mid tests so not much u can do

[tikay]

When a market isn't liquid on bf there's no point quoting prices- ie The Wall 2 is probably 6/4-7/4 not 4/7

Love the reports bar the use of bf prices tho

But you like my Bus photos best, right? Yes? You do, don't you?

[hector62]

The Mission.

Last to arrive at the Bet Cave was Bad Beat, but then he had had the furthest to travel. As those before him he was drawn to stare at Novice. Like everyone else he felt compelled to test the coma like state. At least Bad Beat did not violently kick him in the thigh, like the Essex contingent had, but there was no response from his gentle tapping of Novice's face.

" Yep. He's definitely a veg. "

The team consisted of Tighty, Dubai, Eso, Bad Beat, and millidonk. Tikay  started to brief them of the plan. He outlined the starting bank and the need to make £25k to get the required treatment. He realised that he needed to instill some confidence in everyone so Tikay told them they had been chosen out of the hundreds of Fred followers, and that they were the creme de la creme of bettors.

" Why isn't hector here then ?" asked Eso. " He has given us some great bets "

Tighty choked on his tea.

" That bloody Muppet . Since the end of the rugby league season he has been worse than useless. "

" That's a bit harsh " replied Bad Beat. " He did give us the Pujara tip and that has done OK "

Tighty could stand it no more and rose to his feet. " Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day. He is useless I tell you. I have been following cricket for 40 years and I can tell you this. If I had never heard of that guy before the first test you can be damned sure Hector hadn't. I would bet my entire bankroll that he had never even seen him play before".

Millidonk had to jump in as well.

" I am glad he is not here. He is always mocking my thread, calling us "pesky kids " and all that. Who does he think we are "The scooby doo gang ? "

" He is not here and he is not coming. Right let's get back on message here " said Tikay. "We need to cover all sports so who is going to cover what ? "

" D and D for me Mr T " said Dubai at once.

" What ? " asked Tikay

" D and D. Dogs and Darts that's what I do "

After a brief discussion the sports were allotted. D and D for Dubai, USA sports for Bad Beat, horse racing for Eso and Millidonk would look for football accas with lots of goals. Tighty meanwhile would be a minister without portfolio and could add input whereever necessary as well as covering cricket and rugby.

Whilst the tasks were being discussed Tikay had been busy cooking in the kitchen. Time for some food before the long night began.

The team moved into the dining room.   Whilst seated around the table Millidonk couldn't help but run his hands over the stained pine top. Cheap Ikea crap he thought to himself. He resisted the urge to get out a photo of his own recently delivered table but was happy that he could soon return to it's polished black loveliness.

Tikay placed a plate of chicken, tomatoes, and hard boiled eggs in front of each of them. A pale, insipid gloopy mess.

" Tuck in everyone "

The only sound was Tikay's knife on his plate. No one else had moved, they were just transfixed by what was in front of them.

Slowly a chair drew back and Tikay stopped eating. Rising from his chair Dubai lifted his plate and started walking to the bin. The only sound was that of expensive slippers on sticky carpet. Reaching the bin he slowly tipped the contents of his plate into it. He turned around and starred at Eso Kral. Eso could read his friends mind exactly and slowly nodded his head and muttered a single word .

" Nandos "

[Teacake]

I like Niall McGinn fgs 1/3 the odds ew at 9/1 for Aberdeen v Celtic.

A converted winger now playing through the middle scored 7 in last 7  games. Celtic continue to struggle before and after CL games and this will be an open affair in front of a sellout crowd. The 3/1 ags that we have with this is especially appealing.

It's with 365 but would only recommend a 10 er ew so should be fine.

KO is 12 noon.

[tikay]

Fantastic stuff Hector!