Tips for Tikay

[JaffaCake]

Billy Whitehurst on Talksport, some tales!

Never saw him, anybody here did?

Saw him play for Newcastle, played like most of the supporters would given half the chance, just looking to fight everyone. Around the same time we had another huge striker, once of Watford, called George Reilly. His nickname, a la Coronation Street, was Mavis. Musta scared the centre halves witless

[JaffaCake]

lines i like tonight :

Mavericks +2.5 @ Pacers. Pacers very out of form with injury problems, 1 win in their last 6, have lost to some very bad teams too. Mavs too strong here imo. Money line is probably good value too.

Knicks +6 @ Memphis. As i said above these two are the two in-form teams in the NBA clashing tonight. Grizz coming off the back of wins @ OKC and vs Miami will be buzzing but the Knicks 6-0 and coming off the back of a huge win in SAS will also be brimming. Knicks did play last night so that's why the line is kinda high but I think 6 points is tooooooo big and I expect this to be a pretty close game and I wouldn't want to pick a winner tbh. Were gona be relying on grizz not making an absurd amount of 3 pointers like they did vs MIA but it's pretty hard to shoot as well as they did that game.

O198 Rockets @ Trail Blazers. Both teams have good offences and pretty poor defences. Blazers are allowing 101 points a game while Rockets 96 on average. Both these teams have very good offences though and I expect this to be very high scoring with alot of open looks to both sides. Another thing to note is both benches are pretty poor (especially blazers) meaning they will just leak very easy points. Niether team is very big either I expect to see alot of pick and rolls from Harden and Batum with a high success rate.

Thoughts on these Jaffacake or anyone? Im on all these, gl if you are too.

edit : I know I said to back anyone thats playing orlando as Jaffacake did, but they are playing the Pistons tonight and I have no idea who is going to win the battle of 2 of the 3 worst teams in the NBA tbh so im staying clear tonight.

If I was gonna bet on these last two I'd defo go your way, tho I prefer the Knicks bet to backing Houston, who are defo a better than Portland, whose bench may be the worst in history, but they're pretty up n down themselves. Harden is 10 times the player Batum is which might be the diff.

I've watched a lot of Memphis, mainly coz Mike Conley and Rudy Gay are two of my fantasy team, and really thought they'd underperformed this season, still pretty sure they have more to give. they hve a lovely blend with really good players in 4 of the 5 starting spots but as u say the bench is a bit poor.

I watched Detroit beat Philly the other day and having nearly beaten OKC the game before when they fell to 0-8 I think they may have a turned a little it of a corner. Agree Indy have been shocking, but Dallas are hopeless to so leaving that alone.

The two I picked up and bet were Utah +1 at Philly, on the basis Philly were abs shocking in their last game, losing at home to 0-8 Detroit, while Utah have been playing pretty well, an overtime win in Toronto and a narrow loss to Boston when they were always in it. Philly looked horrendous the other night, couldn't buy a bucket, be v surprised if they could turn that around in two days practice. However, the market has strengthened the Philly side of that game so interested in opinions?

New Orleans +6 against OKC is my other pick. This ticks all the boxes of the bets Channing likes, home underdogs, enfashionable team against one all the mug punters love (so the line is further in our favour) and we can add in that the Hornets are still somewhat under rated, having been laughably poor last year, they're improving, having the number one draft pick (Anthony Davis), anothe good rookie (name escapes me), a decent point guard on fire this year (vasquez) and a good outside threat (Anderson). I don't think the market has picked up this improvement. Add to that OKC traded away Harden, their third best player, and that means Durrant and Westbrook are playing loads more mins, I like this bet. Obv backing bad teams against good ones, which is what u have to do to back a home dog, brings an element of risk, but this is value with a capital pie

[Bad Beat]

 Iread an expression I like in terms of betting ugly teams getting a big start in US sports recently:

 "The easiest bets to make are the hardest ones to collect" (ie if you back the fashionable and obvious...)

[Bad Beat]

 I have a friend called Stuart who I've known for years. He is now quite often on Black Belt and he plays and posts on the site.

 At the start of the NFL season he posted a new thread to say his mate, who apparently has done well in the past, had told him to back Washington for the Superbowl as a "trading opportunity". He bet them at 100s and some 150 with bits in between and in game 1 they played New Orleans and they won 40-32 as a big underdog. He was quite excited and he told us he was now going to "green out" at 60/1.

 I told him I thought greening out was a bad thing and gave him all the reasons why. I suggested to him that if he just thought they would win the first game it would have been better to back them at 4/1.

 I asked him if he thought they were value now at 60/1 and if he hadn't yet had a bet would he be looking and thinking 60/1 was a good lay bet to do.

 Nobody really said very much...

[Bad Beat]

 Washington are now 550-990 on the Superlative Bowl market and it is now the perfect time for people who feel so obliged to come on and tell Stuart that he'd have been better off not listening to me and he should have greened out. (how we laughed).

 One guy came aand posted. His argument went along the lines of saying that he tried to just win a set amount and once he'd reached his "target" he was satisfied and that not greening out when this number had been reached was just "greedy". I felt there was a slight undertone of him saying "it's all very well you not greening out, you can afford it, but I need to win so I must".

 It's a bit like people in poker telling you they can't afford to play aggressively at the time of the bubble because the min-cash is a lot of money to them and they are broke. I usually ask those people if playing badly, (folding AK or JJ because you will start your gambling after the bubble), is a good thing to do generally and if they really need to win do they think that it might be a good time to try and start playing "correctly".

 I made an example to this fella of the flick of a normal coin. I suggested that I am the only bookmaker in the world and I am offering 5/1 on each of 500 spins for heads. He has to bet £1 on each spin and obviously I assume he'll say yes. I then said I'll be offering 1/2 on tails on each spin and asked him if he'd be taking that.

 He chose not to reply and decided to focus on telling me that he did very well out of gambling and he understood what I was saying about giving away, (I chose not to say pissing away), equity, but he didn't mind giving people a fair bet if he'd made the amount he wanted.

[Bad Beat]

 This has been troubling me. I should be happy that people are prepared to green up. It is about 100x harder to win on Betfair these days than it was 5 years ago but at least I know that there are people who enjoy giving total strangers who they'll never meet what they know to be a fair bet just because they don't really handle the swings of gambling very well.

 I'd like to bring the subject around to the excellent Van Gerwin tip though (well done all concerned). To those that took the 80/1,66/1 and 50/1 who know anything about darts and are capable of giving an opinion on the relative merits of the players I ask -"how much value was it?" "what should it have been?" and "what needed to happen for it to go to 16/1?"

 For those that greened out at 16/1 or 20/1...I think I remember one guy - not sure who, sort of posting that he had greened out and sort of saying: "job done". "We spotted the value and now we have locked it up". I meant to post at the time to ask wjhat had to happen for it to get from 80/1 to 20/1 and what were the chances of that happening? I also want to ask people that greened at that level why they suddenly didn't fancy this guy who two weeks earlier was the 2nd coming of the tungsten? I would guess that 80/1 was tremendous value as it was a price left up by some lazy odds-comilers, for whom the event was months away, and they hadn't been following recent events carefully. The 20/1 was a price more heavily scrutinised as he'd just won something a bit higher profile. It was possible that there had been an overeaction in going 20/1 and that it was a great lay but can I ask those that greened out if they would have layed 20/1 Van Gerwin if they were coming in fresh to this as a new event with no bet on.

 I'd also like to ask them (as I really can't appreciate the whole mindset of the greenout guys, if they even think of the lay at 16/1 or 20/1 as a lay - a bet against this guy they had been thinking of as the best ever player (potentially)?

[Bad Beat]

 As a last point I'd like to ask anyone who has a bet on Van Gerwin if they think he is a lay at 6/1 now and if they don't think that that is something they would do if they didn't have a bet on already if they are considering greening out anyway?

 I'd like to ask those that greened at 20/1 if they are thinking this is the lay of all time at 6/1 as they obviously thought it was a good lay at 20/1?

 I'd like to ask those that haven't had a bet whether it's a bet or lay at 6/1?

 I'm not having a go at anyone, I'm just interested in the way people think about betting. It upset me to think that this guy who posted on our site had so little ambition that all he wanted to do was win a little and he would still give away value to green out even if a picture of Tony Bloom's smiling face came up as you pressed the button to do so.

[Karabiner]

Here's a little titbit to whet the appetite for tomorrow's North London derby.

www.arsenal.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=514968

[nirvana]

Here's a little titbit to whet the appetite for tomorrow's North London derby.

www.arsenal.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=514968

Good find, I enjoyed that

[Tal]

It begins...

(Tikay, you saw he started it, right?)

[Doobs]

There are two teams playing in the premier league tomorrow that are a point apart, yet the home team are 1.53 to lay on Betfair.  Surprised nobody had mentioned it, but thread must be laying Liverpool at 1.53 on the perfect market that is Betfair?  Opponents are Wigan if we care.  We should be looking to green out at 2.0, so set up the back at that price*







* only joking here Neil.

[tikay]

Neil - don't stop now, I was just gretting into that little ranty thing!

More please.

Morrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[tikay]

Jeez, I wish I had not gone to bed this afternoon. And I wish I had not got up. I think I have the potential to be super-tetchy.

We have 2 bets tonight, so far, & excluding the Cricket.

Part v Dolan (first game up) - Dolan Most 180's. This is a Value Bet.*

Barney v Harms - Harms. This is a Value Bet.**

* - I missed the Price.

** - I misssed the Price.

An even 20 that Lord Channing is writing articles about me soon.

There was this old duffer I once knew.......

[redarmi]

Just on TL's post if you intend to bet Houston over don't do it yet as that line will come down and you might be able to bet over 197 or even 196.5.  Just call me Mystic Red ;-)

[tikay]

Just on TL's post if you intend to bet Houston over don't do it yet as that line will come down and you might be able to bet over 197 or even 196.5.  Just call me Mystic Red ;-)

Hi Mystic.

Noted.

And would you do that bet?

I've not absorbed Jaffa Cake's Post properly yet, ( he responded) as I need the post-nap fog to clear first.