Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Test match prices India Evs  England 5's   Draw 7/4. What's your plan Mr T ?

No idea!

My heart says India, but 5/1 England will look huge if they win the toss.

Guess I'll gauge all the views from everyone, then make a decision.

[tikay]

Hope this isn't too late, however I have waited for the team news tonight and the fact Matt Jarvis is out makes this a bet for me.

West Ham v Stoke - under 11 corners, 11/10 Bet 365 £25

From a stats basis, although sample size is small this year, Stoke, as you would expect are bottom of the scoring charts, averaging 3,64 total and 2.67 away. They are woefully uncreative as we know - Etherington is having spoor season which impacts the corner stat more v 2011/12

West Ham are better, averaging just over 6 - although a couple of positive points, they are less successful at home - maybe skewed by some tough fixtures and having seen them play a couple of times Jarvis creates a lot of problems down the left.

I'm not a big fan of fixed odds corner betting, personally I have sold.  Not massive value, I have looked at under options like 28.5 multis at 5/6 which gets 7x4 and 8x3 on your side, however keeping it simple with £25 recommendation.

Like to break a duck....

I like that Shaun, but we don't bet with 365.

BetVictor, according to Oddschecker, have the same price & line, but they are not offering that - they go 9/20 under 13.

Hopefully, a few Freddies will get on though, I think it is a great shout.

[claypole]

Lol @ me and this thread...5 mins, two WH corners

[tikay]

Lol @ me and this thread...5 mins, two WH corners

!

[claypole]

Lucky to make with 5, 5 after 24 mins....still confident

[tikay]

You are not in terrible shape at half time Shaun, 5 so far.

Good luck bud.

[Ant040689]

If Fred is interested as I had 200 on totesports trying to get on that darts bet last night with no luck I forced the situation today and lumped it all on West Ham to win. Bloody terrible.

[Ant040689]

Oh hello 1-1.

[claypole]

Just lol - delighted you swerved, I'm having a bad day at the office lololol

[claypole]

7 in 18 mins, absolute joke - I am in wrong side of variance here ffs - car crash spread betting

[tikay]

7 in 18 mins, absolute joke - I am in wrong side of variance here ffs - car crash spread betting

Unlucky Shaun.

Fred got lucky yet again, too.

[Marky147]

Hughes out, being announced tonight

Redknapp has had the phone call.....

Doesn't 'Business as usual' usually mean 'We're working out your compo package and the new boy's contract'

Nice game at the weekend too.....

[redarmi]

I am sure Tikay isn't up but think that the 49ers second half line will represent a lot of value when it comes up.  Firms base their second half line on the closing line and then adjust for the score.  The closing line is obviously based on what we know about the teams so far this season.  There is rarely a big adjustment for what happens in the first half on the basis that  the previous 30-40 halves are more valuable info and have less variance but here we went into the game with a big question mark in that we didn't know how the two qb's backups and in particular the SF backup would perform.  So far he has been lights out and I would argue that info, arguably the most important piece of info in this game, won't be adjusted enough.  I would expect the books to make Chicago like a 1/2 point favourite and SF will be a great bet getting any points.

[tikay]

I am sure Tikay isn't up but think that the 49ers second half line will represent a lot of value when it comes up.  Firms base their second half line on the closing line and then adjust for the score.  The closing line is obviously based on what we know about the teams so far this season.  There is rarely a big adjustment for what happens in the first half on the basis that  the previous 30-40 halves are more valuable info and have less variance but here we went into the game with a big question mark in that we didn't know how the two qb's backups and in particular the SF backup would perform.  So far he has been lights out and I would argue that info, arguably the most important piece of info in this game, won't be adjusted enough.  I would expect the books to make Chicago like a 1/2 point favourite and SF will be a great bet getting any points.

Thanks red, but as you correctly surmised, I was long in bed by then.

[tikay]

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