Tips for Tikay

[millidonk]

Bingo!

Quality fishing Milli, respect to you.

tyty. Although i could have shot myself in the foot as I believe the N!T thread was firmly established as second most popular thread on the punting board.

[bobby1]

I must echo the sentiments of Horneris (albeit as a hobbyist rather than a budding punter) – compelling and insightful contributions as ever by those in the know.

It has made me reflect, as I am wont to do, on my posts on this thread. I probably discuss sports and possible bets as much as most and do so on the whole without anything more than an interest in the field. I rarely come from a position of knowledge, at least of critical depth, and whilst I have a basic grasp of fractions, probability and stats, my interest in these surpasses my ability.

Occasionally, I will stumble across what I perceive to be a wonky price (the Zabaletta booking springs to mind) and have no intention of changing whether I bring that to the thread’s attention; after all, it seems to fit the criteria for bets being posted.

I would like to think that there is room in this thread for my occasional oddball bets like the Booker Prize but I wholeheartedly recognise that posting doesn’t mean they get either embraced or placed. That said, I am feeling a touch insecure – I suspect quite rightly – about putting up bets where I am far from the thread expert.

Reading the past few pages has left me with an image of the likes of bobby1, horseplayer, BadBeat et al rolling their eyes at the sight of a Tal post. “FFS he’s off again”. You’re all people with more experience of both the industry and blonde itself. If I’m wasting your and everyone else’s time, tell me (politely, ideally, but all feedback gratefully received, up to and included STFU; on thread or by PM). I’ve learned more from the last thousand pages than I have likely displayed but there’s a seemingly unparalleled smorgasbord of wisdom watching and posting on here and I would hate to taint it.  

Perhaps I have more knowledge of chess than most (despite the very rare betting opportunities – I assume the paucity of markets means the chances they’re out of line are virtually nil?), but that’s not going to warrant more than a handful of posts a year, perhaps mercifully...

One thing I do like to do is ask questions about betting, odds compilation and markets. If that’s for another thread, fine, but people who can answer the question tune into this one regularly. I only ask because I am genuinely interested.

As for the shape of what is posted on here in the future, if Fred knows what Fred wants, say so and I’m happy to abide by that.

Hi Tal,

It's really important that everyone posts what they want here because we are all reading about a variety of sports and events we might not come across without posts on here.

As for chess betting, you will deffo have miles more knowledge than most of the firms offering prices because they will have taken a tissue price from a supplier and put them on site. If you spot owt that looks out of line it is probably because it is out of line.

[class]

Is the £2k profit made by red a good, bad, or average month? Not looking for specific figures obviously but just curious. (I myself wish I had a roll of 2k, let alone a months profit!)

[redarmi]

It is okay and I am fairly happy with it.  October and November are almost always my busiest months as almost every sport i cover is in season so it is very much a time to make hay but there have obviously been months that have been much better than this and a fair few that have been much worse.  Just because of the volumes I have put in and sports I cover at this time of year my bets are a lot more skewed towards even money type propositions so there aren't many 10/1 winners in there so a really big month margin wise is fairly unlikely.

[typhoon13]

Red

How do the run bad months effect your judgement, reasoning, thoughts etc

[bobby1]

I personally think the hard part is not finding a decent enough bet but betting your money properly and remaining disciplined.

What fascinates me is the specifics of how the elders actually got started on the road to where they are now. The common theme seems to be worked in the industry then went it alone, but did they grind up a roll on the side while in employment, start with small roll and be uber aggressive, have one mega bink and take the plunge, remortgage the house etc?

I think the moment of clarity for me was I was playing 10/20 limit online until 3 in the morning and then getting the 09.20 taxi express into work. I sat down one day and worked out after tax and exes that basically I was working for about £60 quid a day when everything from deductions to taxis and coffee was taken out of my salary. So I told the Mrs there were a load of different ways to make more than 60 quid a day and I guess it became a kind of 'salary by portfolio' which included betting, laying and some pokering.

The thing you mentioned about being disciplined was evident in my poker play. I know I am at the bottom end of the skill level but I didn't care because I made myself have the right attitude. it was simply about trying to grind out cash in low volatility games without getting into any of the dick waving, these days its called exploitable and the good players would have a field day day at nlh but at limit there are usually right and wrong choices so I was very ABC. The scorebaord has no pictures kind of thing.

Its difficult to put a figure on turnover as I might field 20k worth of bets on a golf tourney both pre game and in running and be happy to nick 500 quid and some bets I will have 500 on an NFL game. Tho the stakes are usually lower than that, Iv'e probably averaged about £200 a bet on the NFL this season but fielded 47k worth of bets in my Betfair outright book.

I fielded about 100k of bets on the Prem outright last season to win about 900 quid and in the relegation market I fielded about 80k worth of bets to lose about 2400 quid on Betfair tho I had 400 at 4/1 on Blackburn to be relegated fixed odds pre season which softened the blow.

On the footy betting front I am not at home at the mo but I turned over summat like 52k on betting footy matches between August and November last year and won about 4% which equated to about 2200.

The problem with that was it took so much work and was then open to so many outside influences that I decided I wasn't happy putting in the amount of work I was any more. I still continued to lay outright books on BF and still lay matches on there in certain leagues, I am happier being a layer of teams and having two results going for me than betting one side and being open to all the peripheral ways a match can be decided, at least having 2 runners going for me I have twice the chance of getting them go my way.

It was a funny spot really, what most people winning 4% would do is have more on which is fine if you are betting into the bigger match markets but try getting decent amounts on Scots Div 2/3 and it is a job on it's own and very time consuming and the BF markets on those games are tiny so it would all be thru the books.

cheers

[tikay]

For those following the WBA bandwagon, they are away to Swansea tonight, & around 23/10.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/swansea-v-west-brom/winner

[redarmi]

Red

How do the run bad months effect your judgement, reasoning, thoughts etc

The biggest change I have made is in bankroll management to the point that the bad days dont really bother me anymore now.  I don't have a big roll at all but I almost never have a bet that is more than 2% of my roll.  On any specific day i can have 20-30+% of my roll in play on a single day and I do have some very bad days.  I went 0-12 the other day but I know that is a bad day so I dont really think about it anymore.  The fact I have an outside income helps although the two are very closely related.  I take similar positions for firm i take for myself so if I lost my roll I could quite easily lose my job too!  One thing I am very aware of though is that if you stand still you die in this game so I spend a lot of time trying to come up with new angles and trying to diversify.  Similarly to what Phil says in his excellent post above I take a portfolio approach so whilst I come up with maybe 150-200 bets myself every month I also follow some people on here, I have a racing guy I trust that does 90% of my racing now, I follow a few people on other stuff that i respect and talk to and have a bunch of basic strategies that dont take much thinking about or work and all the time I am looking for other things I can do which will increase turnover, reduce variance and increase profits.  It is all about making your money squeal because you are working it so hard.

[Nico29]

For those following the WBA bandwagon, they are away to Swansea tonight, & around 23/10.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/swansea-v-west-brom/winner

Swansea at 13/10 seem very short in this match, i've laid them on betfair.

Also laid man city at 1/2 v wigan tonight-again i think the market is overrating one side.

Not tips for thread btw-just punts i fancy.

[millidonk]

Incred stuff Phil. I thought Red's figures were staggering but yikes that's another amazing insight. I imagine you had kids and a mortgage at the time as well? Love it when you hear of people biting the bullet and succeeding.

Next time we are on the same table again I will buy you a drink and fire a couple of hundred questions at you. I blame being around so many icecreams growing up for my punting tendencies up until now. Really trying to buck the trend. Might have to take up limit with an ABC style to improve my discipline.

[tikay]

I agree with dom, (Swansea & Man City) though I shan't be indulging.

[typhoon13]

Red

How do the run bad months effect your judgement, reasoning, thoughts etc

The biggest change I have made is in bankroll management to the point that the bad days dont really bother me anymore now.  I don't have a big roll at all but I almost never have a bet that is more than 2% of my roll.  On any specific day i can have 20-30+% of my roll in play on a single day and I do have some very bad days.  I went 0-12 the other day but I know that is a bad day so I dont really think about it anymore.  The fact I have an outside income helps although the two are very closely related.  I take similar positions for firm i take for myself so if I lost my roll I could quite easily lose my job too!  One thing I am very aware of though is that if you stand still you die in this game so I spend a lot of time trying to come up with new angles and trying to diversify.  Similarly to what Phil says in his excellent post above I take a portfolio approach so whilst I come up with maybe 150-200 bets myself every month I also follow some people on here, I have a racing guy I trust that does 90% of my racing now, I follow a few people on other stuff that i respect and talk to and have a bunch of basic strategies that dont take much thinking about or work and all the time I am looking for other things I can do which will increase turnover, reduce variance and increase profits.  It is all about making your money squeal because you are working it so hard.

Bankroll management, the two words that continually crop up.

If i have a bad position on my book it tends to shroud my judgement, as soon as i have realised the loss everything becomes clearer again from a trading perspective.

[tikay]

Fascinated by the numbers that reds & bobby mention.

We beat ourselves up on here a lot, or I do, sometimes with good reason, but to get our collective efforts into perspective, two stats from our spready are.....

Total Bets 885, amount wagered £33,499, Profit, £788, ROI 2.35%.

Football Bets 299, amount wagered £11,406, Profit £633, ROI 5.55%.

I know, sample size, da de da, but given my previous punting history - I'm a geeeezer - that exceeds my wildest dreams.

The collective learning has been extraordinary, imo, & that's why days like yesterday are good for us, or deffo me - I don't have any ego issues with making bad decisions, but I do like to learn from them.

Most of today's debate came aboiut because we missed two good bets - Watford, & TL900's NBA jobbie. So you might even say we won on those 2 bets.  
  

[Tal]

Hi Tal,

It's really important that everyone posts what they want here because we are all reading about a variety of sports and events we might not come across without posts on here.

As for chess betting, you will deffo have miles more knowledge than most of the firms offering prices because they will have taken a tissue price from a supplier and put them on site. If you spot owt that looks out of line it is probably because it is out of line.

Fair enough. Will do.

Just noticed that Ladbrokes are running markets on the individual games of the London Chess Classic.

My immediate thought is to keep a watching brief on the first game or two to see how they are playing. McShane is 7-1 to beat Carlsen with white which looks huge considering McShane is an unconventional player (think Frankenberger but comparatively better) and beat Carlsen a couple of years back in the first round of the 2010 tournament:



Last time, McShane chose a rare line of an out of favour opening and Carlsen ran into trouble trying to complicate the position. He's two years older and a much better player now. 7-1 for a game of chess with the White pieces for the World number 29 nevertheless looks inviting.

The fact that the players have had time to prepare for their opponents this year favours some over others, although I'd be reluctant to recommend much until I've seen the first game or two.

Watching brief advised.


Edit: Carlsen now Evs. Didn't Fred take 5/6?

[Ant040689]

Does the fact one is using Black or White make much difference to the players? You mentioned it twice, how so? Also any incidences in the past where it was a big factor in a match/occasion?