Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

I've got a short list of games for this weekend.

Possibilities for me include :

Notts County at Rotherham in FA Cup at 7/4. Too big a price for me. Notts County have been very good away this season, and whilst Rotherham have improved, they can blow up at home (eg losing 3-2 to Wycombe recently).

Dag & Red at Torquay in L2 at 11/4. Torquay seem vunerable at home currently and D&R have seen much improved form.

Port Vale at Sheff Utd in FA Cup at 9/2. Utd want promotion and think FA Cup will be viewed as a distraction. Port Vale been very handy away from home and Micky Adams going back to Bramall Lane where he was sacked will be very motivated.

These are the type of bets I prefer generally.

Perhaps Tighty, Camel etc would give a view. Happy to take criticism on the chin!

                                
    

Not really sure about this one Rick. I think United are going to be too good for most teams at home this season, also think they will be up for a cup run, considering how bad the money situation is down there. If it was the whole "we want to go out the cup, as we want to go up" perhaps they should have exited away to Bristol Rovers in Round One? In a game where they actually was a goal down, so I can still see motivation for United wanting to go through.

A half decent 3rd round fixture is worth a fortune, so can't see them wanting to go out now.

It would be interesting however to see the Blades' teamsheet v Bristol Rovers.

[Tal]

My quote wasn't. He really said that.

[TheDazzler]

My quote wasn't. He really said that.

Well Pool only had 52% possession so it seems unlikely to me. Do you have a link to footage of him saying it? Not saying you're lying but it just seems too ridiculous a statement to be true

Edit, oh sorry, you meant the other quote. I think the 65% quote was a windup.

[The Camel]

Ha, your all it on it of course, I hope?!

That was from a spoof Lfc account

Read a couple pages.

Very good spoof account imo.

[Tal]

My quote wasn't. He really said that.

Well Pool only had 52% possession so it seems unlikely to me. Do you have a link to footage of him saying it? Not saying you're lying but it just seems too ridiculous a statement to be true

Edit, oh sorry, you meant the other quote. I think the 65% quote was a windup.

Having watched the match, neither side controlled the ball well enough.

The guy picked Downing and Henderson. Don't think we need any quotes.

[Marky147]

Liverpool site opta shows 65% possession too

http://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/latest-news/spurs-2-1-lfc-opta-match-stats


Just had a read of that Twitter 

[Doobs]

Interested in the views of the snooker statisticians regarding the 147 potential in the upcoming UK Champs. Decent range in the prices here with Skybet going 13/8 while BetFred are top with 11/5.

I know the standard has gone up massively in recent years and so 147's are nowhere like the rarity they used to be (much like 9 darters) but not sure how this correlates to the likelihood in any given event.  The fact is that this and the Worlds are the most likely though due to the length of the matches and the quality of the players taking part in those long matches.

There have already been two 147 breaks in qualifying for this tournament (making it 11 total for the year) and so my hypothesis to be confirmed/rejected is that the layers have not caught up with the increasing probability of these coming off.  Perhaps similar to the mispricing that famously occurred back in the day with hole in one markets.

Thus we should have a decent wager (say £50) on the 11/5 with Betfred - giving us a longterm sweat for the tournament on top of the hypothesised value.

The hole in one gane were getting a big price on a short price occurence, you seem to be suggesting taking a short price about a short price occurence.  This could be more akin to the drop goal coup that was organised here?  Surely we produce some stats to back up the hypothesis before punting, even if it is only £50?

As it is there have been only 5 147s in the main draw proper this year.  It seems like there are way more tournaments than they used to be.  If all these tournaments were equal it would be an easy swerve.  But they aren't, and the minor events are shorter and are likely to have lower quality fields?  

There have been 3 147s in the 9 big ranking tournaments this year, which gives a rough 2/1, but the world championship has more frames so will skew it and there aren't nearly enough statistics there to be sure.

In 2011, all bar one were in minor events or qualifying.  On a brief perusal it looks like the same story in 2010, and in 2009 there were only 2 in all tournaments.  2008 is promising, but by then I feel I am stretching it to try and find evidence to back the hypothesis.

In addition, Ronnie has 13% of all 147s, so expect his absence to cause a drop in the expected number.

There really isn't anything that would convince me that 11/5 looks too long, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer at that price.  

Cheers


 

[TheDazzler]

My quote wasn't. He really said that.

Well Pool only had 52% possession so it seems unlikely to me. Do you have a link to footage of him saying it? Not saying you're lying but it just seems too ridiculous a statement to be true

Edit, oh sorry, you meant the other quote. I think the 65% quote was a windup.

Having watched the match, neither side controlled the ball well enough.

The guy picked Downing and Henderson. Don't think we need any quotes.

I think the spoof twitter account is probably making fun of the fact that Rogers always tries to accentuate the positives, even in poor performances. I don't mind managers doing that, I think its generally a better ploy to motivate players than putting them on blast.
As for picking Downing and Henderson, yeah I was surprised at the team selection (would have preferred Wisdom at RB and Johnson at LB, dropping Downing) but looking at their bench and squad in general, its not that bad. Neither of those two have performed but his options are very limited with either average or young inexperienced players.

[TheDazzler]

Liverpool site opta shows 65% possession too

http://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/latest-news/spurs-2-1-lfc-opta-match-stats


Just had a read of that Twitter 

BBC has it 52%/48% to Pool
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20422502

[tikay]

I've got a short list of games for this weekend.

Possibilities for me include :

Notts County at Rotherham in FA Cup at 7/4. Too big a price for me. Notts County have been very good away this season, and whilst Rotherham have improved, they can blow up at home (eg losing 3-2 to Wycombe recently).

Dag & Red at Torquay in L2 at 11/4. Torquay seem vunerable at home currently and D&R have seen much improved form.

Port Vale at Sheff Utd in FA Cup at 9/2. Utd want promotion and think FA Cup will be viewed as a distraction. Port Vale been very handy away from home and Micky Adams going back to Bramall Lane where he was sacked will be very motivated.

These are the type of bets I prefer generally.

Perhaps Tighty, Camel etc would give a view. Happy to take criticism on the chin!

                                 
   

Thanks Rick.

Yes, let us see what view others have.

I do think we are likely to do more lower-league betting in the coming months, but it needs guys like you to post suggestions. Keep them coming please.

[tikay]

Interested in the views of the snooker statisticians regarding the 147 potential in the upcoming UK Champs. Decent range in the prices here with Skybet going 13/8 while BetFred are top with 11/5.

I know the standard has gone up massively in recent years and so 147's are nowhere like the rarity they used to be (much like 9 darters) but not sure how this correlates to the likelihood in any given event.  The fact is that this and the Worlds are the most likely though due to the length of the matches and the quality of the players taking part in those long matches.

There have already been two 147 breaks in qualifying for this tournament (making it 11 total for the year) and so my hypothesis to be confirmed/rejected is that the layers have not caught up with the increasing probability of these coming off.  Perhaps similar to the mispricing that famously occurred back in the day with hole in one markets.

Thus we should have a decent wager (say £50) on the 11/5 with Betfred - giving us a longterm sweat for the tournament on top of the hypothesised value.

Good morning, & thanks.

Personally, I would not go anywhere near that market until we know what the tables are like, they can very so much, pockets tight etc.

bobby has quite a good handle on snooker events too, & he may well disagree with me (listen to him, not me!) but personally, I'd want to know how the tables were running & playing first. Venue "atmosphere" (in the real sense, not the crowd!) & humidity also affects scores, too.

Of course, if we sussed after Day One or Two that the Tables were playing favourably, it is likely that the value will have disappeared from the market.

[tikay]

Golf from America returns to Sky Sports tonight, in a rather odd event, effectively a Tiger Woods hosted jobbie.

The short field is limited to just 18 runners.

They go, generally, 11/4 Tiger, 12/1 bar, with the likes of Graham McDowell (a past winner of this) & a few other very decent players out with the washing at 20/1 & 25/1.

The EW terms are one fifth, top four. 

There must surely be some value EW spots there?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/world-challenge/world-challenge/winner

It includes two other quite odd markets - "Top UK & Ireland" player, being a match between Poults & McDowell, with Poults 8/13, & McDowell 5/4.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/world-challenge/world-challenge/top-gb-and-ireland

"Top Rest of the World" is equally limited - just three players, being Poults (5/4), McDowell (5/2), & Jason Day (5/2).


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/world-challenge/world-challenge/top-rest-of-the-world

Those two markets seem very mis-aligned (relative to each other) to me, & if I were betting, I'd be betting the Rest of the World market.

No doubt an expert will tell me (correctly) that I should go bark at a different tree.

[TheChipPrince]

The spoof account is a spoof account full stop.

There not gonna mock Anzhi or others, the Rodgers quotes are made up obv.

[bobby1]

I've got a short list of games for this weekend.

Possibilities for me include :

Notts County at Rotherham in FA Cup at 7/4. Too big a price for me. Notts County have been very good away this season, and whilst Rotherham have improved, they can blow up at home (eg losing 3-2 to Wycombe recently).

Dag & Red at Torquay in L2 at 11/4. Torquay seem vunerable at home currently and D&R have seen much improved form.

Port Vale at Sheff Utd in FA Cup at 9/2. Utd want promotion and think FA Cup will be viewed as a distraction. Port Vale been very handy away from home and Micky Adams going back to Bramall Lane where he was sacked will be very motivated.

These are the type of bets I prefer generally.

Perhaps Tighty, Camel etc would give a view. Happy to take criticism on the chin!

                                
    

That Sheff Utd game is one I have my eye on, will be interesting to see what the squads are.

[kukushkin88]

Some obvious questions about value.

Following tonights result do Swansea look backable at Arsenal at the weekend, also Stoke at WB?

I think the value is likely to be if WBA drift in any significant way as a result of last nights results. I thought WBA were a bit of a value last night and probably just about already are again vs Stoke, if they drift significantly then they´ll be a decent bet imo.

Swansea/Arsenal prices seem about right.