Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/houston-rockets-at-oklahoma-city-thunder/total-points

Two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA square off in Oklahoma tonight. Rockets avg over 102 points a game and OKC 104.

James Harden going back to Oklahoma for the first time since his trade will fire him up and I expect him to have a monster game tonight.

If you look at the oddschecker link O207.5 on pinnacle is still a favourite over the under. Therefore I suggest betting O205 on PP just simply on the fact that we have 2-2.5 point edge on the market right now.

Is it 'Great Value?' No. Is it a '+EV bet' Yes, imo.

This ended 120-98, chalking up another TL900 winner.

The guy is HOT

Congrats Tom.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 10am, Thursday November 29th

PROFIT on Month = £833.00

Unsettled Bets  - £828.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[redsimon]

Port Vale at Sheff Utd in FA Cup at 9/2. Utd want promotion and think FA Cup will be viewed as a distraction. Port Vale been very handy away from home and Micky Adams going back to Bramall Lane where he was sacked will be very motivated.

You need to factor in that Vale are second in League Two and "want" promotion too. Both sides might put weker teams out. Definitely one to wait until squads announced?

[Bad Beat]

 I just wanted to say,(in case anyone got me wrong yesterday). Please, please, please nobody think they shouldn't post in case I think they aren't thinking about bets the way I or anyone else would like.

 I love the thread and I have learned a lot from some of the really clever pro punters but I also have learned loads about events where I can see there must be a betting edge, but I just don't really know enough about the sport, or I'd like someone to agree before I stick the money down.

 I love Hector's sense of fun and he's put me on a couple of rugby league winners for sure. I haven't followed him blindly on every bet and I've had plenty on rugby union lately, but it has definitely helped. I always like to watch the cycling and I worked with guys who were massively into betting on the tour but I always felt I knew less than the compilers. Tonji definitely knows his stuff and I would follow him blindly if I could get on in those markets. I've enjoyed cheering for you and the thread there though.

 I think Bazza follows darts more than can be healthy for a young man, but I'm certain I would back him blindly on anything I could get on (it's so hard for me in these smaller things were it is an opinion against one compiler and one firm. I have to pay commission so the price has to be really wrong and even then the bet will be a fifth the size of my average bet so it's hard to funk as hard).

 I loved to read about the Booker Taz. I have made a market on that several times and had a few bets. I didn't get involved this time but I read everything you wrote and loved it. I like the chess stuff too. I'm sure the Ladbrokes guy loves chess and reads everything but I'm certain we can beat him.

 I think it was Andrew on the US election. I owe you a beer mate. I love politics betting and often have stayed up 72 hours during an election. The florida 29 and the bands with Ladbrokes was something that the Betfair market never grasped all night. I probably would have figured it when it was 3/1 and should have been 6/4 but you helped an old man get there much earlier. Thank you.

 It's hard to always comment on every thing and to share bets I'm having as I obviously want to get on 1st and they make it harder and harder. That is why I really appreciate the guys who do share.

 Cheers all and keep doing what you are doing.

[aaron1867]

Port Vale at Sheff Utd in FA Cup at 9/2. Utd want promotion and think FA Cup will be viewed as a distraction. Port Vale been very handy away from home and Micky Adams going back to Bramall Lane where he was sacked will be very motivated.

You need to factor in that Vale are second in League Two and "want" promotion too. Both sides might put weker teams out. Definitely one to wait until squads announced?

Definitely not one for me either.

Like I mentioned earlier, if United wanted out of this cup earlier they would so at round one against Bristol rovers, in a game they was actually 1-0 down at one point. They are not going to give up on the FA Cup when Round 3 is next.

[Bad Beat]

 Couple of things before I have to go out...

 Red...thanks for the basketball thoughts. I was going to say that if we see a total that is 1.5 off Pinny or a side 1 off then we should be on without having to discuss. Good spots there Tom. Also I'm really looking forward to Lefty Rosenthal stuff.

 Tikay...on the golf each-way. You are right, less runners and a short-price favourite definitely mean there will probably be value at 1/5th 1234. I saw Steve Palmer getting wildly excited about betting ew in a 64-runner golf event the other day.

 Now I understand that people like their sport and he doesn't get that shot too often, but I wonder if there is almost never a case for having an ew bet on a golf event. When you think there are around 50 races a year where we have 16-20 runners in a handicap at 1/4 1234 not to mention the 22-30 runner ones where one bright spark goes 12345 or sometimes 6, don't we have to have a bet on EVERY SINGLE one of those before we start using energy on golf.

 Third quick point...I am going to a lunch today and I think I'm sitting next to Tanya Stevenson. I have never met her before. Anyone got a good question? (please...keep it clean).

[BigAdz]

Ask if she can possibly be a winning punter when she so patently a sentimental punter.

If she says she is. Call her a liar and talk to whoever is sat the other side of you!

Have fun.

[doubleup]

Golf from America returns to Sky Sports tonight, in a rather odd event, effectively a Tiger Woods hosted jobbie.

The short field is limited to just 18 runners.

They go, generally, 11/4 Tiger, 12/1 bar, with the likes of Graham McDowell (a past winner of this) & a few other very decent players out with the washing at 20/1 & 25/1.

The EW terms are one fifth, top four. 

There must surely be some value EW spots there?

Would have thought so as this is effectively 4 places on a non-handicap, but looking at the Betfair top 4 prices there isn't actually much value.

[tikay]

Golf from America returns to Sky Sports tonight, in a rather odd event, effectively a Tiger Woods hosted jobbie.

The short field is limited to just 18 runners.

They go, generally, 11/4 Tiger, 12/1 bar, with the likes of Graham McDowell (a past winner of this) & a few other very decent players out with the washing at 20/1 & 25/1.

The EW terms are one fifth, top four. 

There must surely be some value EW spots there?

Would have thought so as this is effectively 4 places on a non-handicap, but looking at the Betfair top 4 prices there isn't actually much value.

Thanks.

Ah well, at least I spotted the opportunity. Which did not exist.......

[RickBFA]

Port Vale at Sheff Utd in FA Cup at 9/2. Utd want promotion and think FA Cup will be viewed as a distraction. Port Vale been very handy away from home and Micky Adams going back to Bramall Lane where he was sacked will be very motivated.

You need to factor in that Vale are second in League Two and "want" promotion too. Both sides might put weker teams out. Definitely one to wait until squads announced?

Don't disagree about seeing more about squad/team news - I said the game was one for my shortlist.

I do think its more likely that a)  Utd are more likely to play a slightly weakened side b) it will be a "cup final" type game for Port Vale, I think they will be more motivated personally, especially with the Adams factor c) Port Vale have had more success away than at home this season with 6 wins (I appreciate in L2).

I would add that it's clear when backing football at longer odds I will get more wrong than right, but typically I only need 30-35% to come in and I am in profit.

I appreciate the view that Sheff Utd are overwhelming favorites but I avoid odds on football bets unless its an exception situation.

[Tal]

Comprehensive and charming post, BadBeat. Cheers.

The question for a lunchtime natter has to be:

Day 1. You meet John McCririck. Discuss.

Have fun.

[Chompy]

Ask if she can possibly be a winning punter when she so patently a sentimental punter.

If she says she is. Call her a liar and talk to whoever is sat the other side of you!

Have fun.

 

Push for her genuine thoughts on Big Mac imo (^^ Tal beat me to it)

[Bad Beat]

 My read is that it was always disdain and "when will this fat fool retire so I can take over?". As he's grown older I think there is warmth and affection there. Will ask though.

 She is a big NFL anorak so will be getting 49er thoughts.

[TL900]

Only 2 games in the NBA tonight but I like sides on both the totals.

Spurs @ Heat
http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-miami-heat/total-points

Two of the best teams in the NBA going at it tonight, but I think the game will be the opposite of 'going at it' The Spurs are one the cleverest teams in the NBA with a great coach who plays great tactics and adapts his team/line up to adjust to his opponents. Tonight will be no different, Spurs know they can't compete with Miami in a pure shootout and they are experienced enough to know that isn't how you beat them. I expect them to clamp down on D and take their time every possession to wait for good looks against a good Heat defence.

Im in for 2units on this game @ U205.5 with william hill.

The other game tonight is Nuggets @ Warriors
http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/denver-nuggets-at-golden-state-warriors/total-points

Im not too ecstatic about this line but before I opened up to look at the line i did expect it to be >200, so I have had a little tickle on O198.5, both teams play good offence, and when the nuggets are in a game every game is a 'shootout' They don't play much defence at all and play at a very fast pace. For the Warriors their best defender (Andrew Bogut) is injured so this can only help the over for us.

Im in for 1unit on this game @ O198.5

Cliffs:

Suggest U205.5 Spurs @ Heat, if anyone is really enthusiastic about O198.5 in Nuggets game then go for that too, otherwise probably just leave it/have a small little tickle

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at 11.40am, Thursday 29th November

Yesterday was all talk, & no walk. Good talk though.

That’s it for today, short & sweet.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.