Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Champions league.

The 1st two teams in the betting are Barca (13/5) and Real (7/2), the next 2 are German, Bayern (8/1), Dortmund (9/1). Then we get the English, French, Italian, Portugese, Ukrainian teams.
Keep going down and we arrive at the 3rd German team, Shalke 04, who can be backed @ 66/1.

If we look at the German league, Bayern are cruising and look the dominant team.
Then comes Leverkusen, then Dortmund and Schalke in 3rd and 4th separated by 2 points.

So we have 2 German teams, both of whom have qualified for last 16 and likely to top their groups (albeit Dortmunds was much tougher), looking like they are similarly matched in their national league and yet one is 9/1 4th favs for the Champs league and the other is 66/1 12th favs.
And Schalke didn't play Champs league last year but 2 years ago were beaten by Man United in the semi finals.
We all know the Germans are coming (in a couple of years they may be the dominant league in Europe?) but is there value here on Schalke, or conversely, are Dortmund too short?

The only league I know anything about is the Premier league and I don't even watch Champs League, let alone the Bundseliga so perhaps the prices are correct but would welcome other views.

Think some regular posts on here are on a german team to win the CL pre comp at 10-1 which is looking sweet

Have seen Dortmund a few times on the tv, mighty impressive team. Think they might go shorter

My knowledge of Schalke is far less, but the price does look to be anomalous

[Tal]

Seem to remember the Turner prize rarely gets awarded to the favourite. I'd bet Luke Fowler, the outsider, he's from Scotland, most recent winners have come from Glasgow.

Not sure of the panel but the critics are generally content that Fowler is deserved outsider. The divisions are largely elsewhere.

Traditional media don't tend to do well in the Turner Prize so we now have two good reasons to lay the fav. Everyone likes it and if ever there were are a reason Noble can't win the Turner Prize, it is that.

I would be looking at Elizabeth Price strongly. Not only is she a hugely respected artist, this seems to be a giant stride forward from her previous work, with her combination of words and images in devastating tandem. It took over a year to make, which is a feature of her pieces.

Having spent the evening going through the opinions, that's the one I'd plump for.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-20581283



D'oh!

[Tonji]

http://m.thehindu.com/sport/cricket/atherton-boycott-barred-from-inspecting-pitch/article4161286.ece/?maneref=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F1Ig4ct0z


Its rare I disagree with Hector, but I can't be having an England seamer in the top bowler market for this

Going to be a slow turner, to neutralise Monty and favour their spinners

So pitch report will be morning of the test?

Interesting, looking forward to get some breakfast cricket.

[Tonji]

Seem to remember the Turner prize rarely gets awarded to the favourite. I'd bet Luke Fowler, the outsider, he's from Scotland, most recent winners have come from Glasgow.

Not sure of the panel but the critics are generally content that Fowler is deserved outsider. The divisions are largely elsewhere.

Traditional media don't tend to do well in the Turner Prize so we now have two good reasons to lay the fav. Everyone likes it and if ever there were are a reason Noble can't win the Turner Prize, it is that.

I would be looking at Elizabeth Price strongly. Not only is she a hugely respected artist, this seems to be a giant stride forward from her previous work, with her combination of words and images in devastating tandem. It took over a year to make, which is a feature of her pieces.

Having spent the evening going through the opinions, that's the one I'd plump for.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-20581283



D'oh!

Did you get on this Tal?

[Tal]

A little bit, Tonji, but no more than a nudge.

Had forgotten it was tonight but saw it in the TV listings by chance. Sadly, Fred got on Will Self on my recommendation and lost, but didn't go for Dr Price and she won.

Variance, though. I spend most of the day talking nonsense. And that's a good day.   

[Dubai]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

[Tal]

Latest chess update for those interested, bored, sleep deprived or curious:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1676911#new

Latest prices are here:

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/chess-c210000170

In my report, I've suggested a fancy for McShane causing an upset against Aronian and there are plenty of reasons to advocate backing him. One of those isn't the market, based on the morning's discussion, mind, as there seems on my calculations to be a big house edge. Nevertheless, 7/2 isn't unattractive in a situation where the opponent in Aronian is under pressure and McShane has benefited from a rest day, while his opponent has played for around 14 hours in the past three days.

Their games are suited to creating chances: this is going to be an intense game with both sides making moves on instinct and feel. Nothing I have said would be beyond an odds compiler doing minimal research, but I am interested in whether there is something to be had in backing a dangerous player against someone who is not going to play a quiet, solid game very often in defence.

The other interesting game is Anand v Kramnik, where the bookies are desperate for us not to back the draw, so have moved it almost to 1/3. Anand doesn't play Kramnik all that often; at least not in the past couple of years, as Anand has been in a World Championship cycle. Two very solid players but Anand played well today; better than he has for a while. He also defended better than I expected on Sunday against McShane. Kramnik is looking like he is getting on form as well and part of me thinks both of them fancy a win tomorrow. I can see it being a long game, which gives a bettor a chance of anything happening. Anand is 4/1 and Kramnik is 5/1, having the disadvantage of the Black pieces. If Carlsen wins quickly, there will be a lot of pressure on Kramnik to press for a win at what will be the halfway stage for both Carlsen and Kramnik. A Black win (when his remaining Black games are World number 2 Aronian and the seemingly in-form Adams) could be huge for him.

Anand drew quite a lot of criticism for the lack of flair in the World Championship match and just as much for drawing every game in the Tal Memorial this summer. He has drawn both his games so far and, although there are better games to pick out a win, I can see him having a go tomorrow.

Would there ever be a situation where betting both Anand and Kramnik to win would be +EV? How short would the draw have to be?

At the very least, Kramnik at 5/1 seems enticing.

I'm torn between Luke at 7/2 and Kramnik at 5/1 as to which if either to recommend. Head says one and heart says the other. Will sleep on it

[Tal]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

Gives you something to break the ice in 2070 when you pick up your knighthood, eh?!

[aaron1867]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

you forgot to mention that boys are generally faster swimmers too

[The Camel]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

you forgot to mention that boys are generally faster swimmers too

You reckon Michael Phelps is the father?

[tikay]

Not a bet suggestion but I found this interesting. Looking at total points in the Toronto basketball match that TL900 put a suggestion for. All the British bookies are going for 201 points bar Stan James are 202.5. Pinnacle on the other hand are 199.5. There is a good bet there somewhere but I have no idea what it is.

True, but all the 201 Is 10/11, whereas the Pinnacle 199.5 is 5/6.

I don't know how to equate or compare those two prices, but they must be near identical.

bonjour, its kinda scary that the market has come down again, I still believe the over is the far superior side maybe £44 @ O200.5?

One day we will get the right side of this NBA stuff.

Tom seems to have it cracked, why did I not just get on?

Over 200?

Raptors 110

Nuggets 113

Yup, that's almost certainly over 200.

Shoot me now.

[Tal]

Morning, all.

I've slept - if only a little - on it and have the prices as being about the same in terms of value (Kramnik has less chance of winning than McShane but that is reflected in the price).

The deciding factor us that Kramnik is our main rival in the overall market. If we have £5 on him to win today:

- if he wins, we win £25 but we have a horse very much in contention at the half way point
- if he draws or loses, we lose £5 but Carlsen has likely made ground on him.

Difference between this and the bet I proposed the other day is that Kramnik isn't playing Carlsen, so Carlsen can win/lose/draw independently.

Kramnik at 5/1 seems generous to me. I think we might have an "in". The reason for this is I think the odds-setter has seen these two solid, strong defenders and decided to press the draw. I can see Kramnik creating imbalances in the position and looking to get a different result. This is one you look at and say Draw but they haven't played as often in the last couple of years as people might think, and I suspect Kramnik has been looking in his preparations at ways to open Anand up.

Herein, a recommend: Kramnik £5 @ 5/1 with Ladbrokes

[typhoon13]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

Any e/w markets for this one!!!!

[TightEnd]

Kukushin: The case for Seattle and the wild card http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000103712/State-Your-Case-No-6-NFC-playoff-seed

Meanwhile Washington 17, Giants 16. Skins cover as a home dog.

[kukushkin88]

Kukushin: The case for Seattle and the wild card http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000103712/State-Your-Case-No-6-NFC-playoff-seed

Meanwhile Washington 17, Giants 16. Skins cover as a home dog.

Good Morning Tighty,

I´m going to sound a bit like a broken record :-) but.............. my case is that Seattle might very well get the 2nd seed. That´s a good result for Seattle last night, NY are one of the dangers. I don´t like the team much but they have a huge chance, it´s all on SF at home and Buffalo away if they win those they really can get the 2nd seed.