Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 I was under in the Seattle Chicago game (TD in ot not very nice 17-17 in reg and under 37.5). Just imagine being the guy who had that, plus Detroit, plus San Fran -7.5, plus Dallas -10.5.

 Such a ridiculous game.

 Anyone have thoughts tonight? I lean Skins but so far I have middled for small money a few times. Am under 51 as it was going down but no massive opinion.

[bobby1]

Very interesting night on the NFL, it´s really changed the shape of things in the NFC. I think I´ve found a bit of value in a market that has significant implications for our San Francisco bet. I really think Seattle are worth a look for the NFC. They have a serious chance to win out now and if San Francisco don´t win at New England that gives them the division.

What do people think of Seattle @ 14/1 for the NFC? If they win out it´s a massive price, if they win 3 out of 4 then it´s possibly a little on the skinny side/about right but that makes it a bet in my book. Don´t want to place it without comments from the usual suspects as my experience is much more in handicap/points betting and the others will have a much better idea of if this is truly value or not.

Spent a bit more time researching this and talked myself in to having a decent bet. How would people price up the SF @ Seattle game at the moment? Surely SF aren´t better than 2.5 point favs there?

The difference between their home advantage and their away record would be pivotal in that bet. Tho the away record features a lot of very tight losses so I might be over simplifying that a bit. They have 3 home games left and a trip to Buffalo, my gut feeling is that the price seems tightish given that they are bang on the line of the play off places as it stands and fighting off teams behind them that could go past and less likely to go past the teams above them in the current standings. I think the price they are to make the play offs coupled with the price they will be to win the conference if they do get in is probably bigger than 14/1 as they will then be medium sized outsiders in almost all the away games they are likely to have. So to make the price shorter they will have to win the Division and get some home advantage, maybe the best way to get with them is to bet them to win the Div and then parlay that up for the Conference or lay San Fran for the Div and have that on for Conference afterwards.( you might be able to lay 1.2 to 1.25 )

There are some related games that deffo help Seattle in the Conference standings tho, Chicago play Green Bay and Washington play the Giants and Dallas in the next few weeks so those teams around them can't all win out and splitting results that favour them is more likely.

[aaron1867]

Arsenal have travelled to Greece without 9 of the 11 who started on Satruday for the dead rubber with Olympiakos tomorrow night

Olympiakos can be backed at 2-1

In games like this, and with so many "dead" games this week in the final round of matches, what should a punter's strategy be on such games

Assume that the side qualified/resting players are to be opposed? Or regard that as a bit of a "gamblers fallacy"?

Are the greek side still in with a chance of Europe?

[TightEnd]

I was under in the Seattle Chicago game (TD in ot not very nice 17-17 in reg and under 37.5). Just imagine being the guy who had that, plus Detroit, plus San Fran -7.5, plus Dallas -10.5.

 Such a ridiculous game.

 Anyone have thoughts tonight? I lean Skins but so far I have middled for small money a few times. Am under 51 as it was going down but no massive opinion.

Have resolved not to oppose RG3 ever in the next decade, a sa strategy call :-)

Skins at home, need a win to have a chance of winning a pretty weak division

Top notch running game with Alfred Morris makes the RG3 play action work

On the Skins at home +3

[bobby1]

I thought the Philly bet on the handicap was the most outstanding NFL bet I have seen all season

I bottled it on here though, wasn't strident enough, should have just insisted (or harped on about it) on the maximum in repeated posts

A slightly more confident team would have scooped at 9/2 on the outright too

It was another amazing example of the fine lines of NFL betting I guess, you would have been short odds to win all game and then sickened by the fumble return for a td to make it an 11 point game. The set of plays to set up the kick return to make it a 5 point game where a huge price tho when you add up a minus 11 yard run x not being able to kick the ball to the end zone x returning the ball 98 yards for a td to cover.

I was cheering it on Rich when he set off down the line even tho I didn't play the game in the end, I hoped you had a good bet yourself.

[TightEnd]

Arsenal have travelled to Greece without 9 of the 11 who started on Satruday for the dead rubber with Olympiakos tomorrow night

Olympiakos can be backed at 2-1

In games like this, and with so many "dead" games this week in the final round of matches, what should a punter's strategy be on such games

Assume that the side qualified/resting players are to be opposed? Or regard that as a bit of a "gamblers fallacy"?

Are the greek side still in with a chance of Europe?

Yes, need 3rd for Europa league are currently 1 point above the bottom side

[bobby1]

I was under in the Seattle Chicago game (TD in ot not very nice 17-17 in reg and under 37.5). Just imagine being the guy who had that, plus Detroit, plus San Fran -7.5, plus Dallas -10.5.

 Such a ridiculous game.

 Anyone have thoughts tonight? I lean Skins but so far I have middled for small money a few times. Am under 51 as it was going down but no massive opinion.

Man alive mate, how many times can you get it in good in one day and not win any of them?

[kukushkin88]

Very interesting night on the NFL, it´s really changed the shape of things in the NFC. I think I´ve found a bit of value in a market that has significant implications for our San Francisco bet. I really think Seattle are worth a look for the NFC. They have a serious chance to win out now and if San Francisco don´t win at New England that gives them the division.

What do people think of Seattle @ 14/1 for the NFC? If they win out it´s a massive price, if they win 3 out of 4 then it´s possibly a little on the skinny side/about right but that makes it a bet in my book. Don´t want to place it without comments from the usual suspects as my experience is much more in handicap/points betting and the others will have a much better idea of if this is truly value or not.

Spent a bit more time researching this and talked myself in to having a decent bet. How would people price up the SF @ Seattle game at the moment? Surely SF aren´t better than 2.5 point favs there?

The difference between their home advantage and their away record would be pivotal in that bet. Tho the away record features a lot of very tight losses so I might be over simplifying that a bit. They have 3 home games left and a trip to Buffalo, my gut feeling is that the price seems tightish given that they are bang on the line of the play off places as it stands and fighting off teams behind them that could go past and less likely to go past the teams above them in the current standings. I think the price they are to make the play offs coupled with the price they will be to win the conference if they do get in is probably bigger than 14/1 as they will then be medium sized outsiders in almost all the away games they are likely to have. So to make the price shorter they will have to win the Division and get some home advantage, maybe the best way to get with them is to bet them to win the Div and then parlay that up for the Conference or lay San Fran for the Div and have that on for Conference afterwards.( you might be able to lay 1.2 to 1.25 )

There are some related games that deffo help Seattle in the Conference standings tho, Chicago play Green Bay and Washington play the Giants and Dallas in the next few weeks so those teams around them can't all win out and splitting results that favour them is more likely.

Hi Bobby thanks very much for the input. The thing is it really does look like if they win the division there is an excellent chance they will have the number 2 seed. They are 100% at home, with St Louis and Zona to come where they really should win, so San Fran at home with the most fired up 12th man in years and an inexperienced QB in opposition and Buffalo away for a great shot at the number 2 seed. I must have got a bit carried as two good judges on forum and the only good judge I know off forum aren´t that keen but I really do like this one :-).

[BigAdz]

Arsenal have travelled to Greece without 9 of the 11 who started on Satruday for the dead rubber with Olympiakos tomorrow night

Olympiakos can be backed at 2-1

In games like this, and with so many "dead" games this week in the final round of matches, what should a punter's strategy be on such games

Assume that the side qualified/resting players are to be opposed? Or regard that as a bit of a "gamblers fallacy"?

I would suggest that 2/1 Olypiakos is max-bet material as we have a shocking record against them even fielding full-strength teams.

Rumour has it that Squillaci plays too which makes it even more of a max in my eyes.

With our strongest team playing like amatuers at the moment, I fancy a few fringe players will be going all out to impress. They will be playing to win the group and Olym are already out, so have nothing to play for.

Even having backed Swansea vs us on Saturday, I fancy a max bet on Olym is still folly.......FWIW of c

[Bad Beat]

 I didn't have all of those Phil (I was on Rams +7.5, followed Tighty with Philly +10.5, swore a lot and then unswore on that one, and the under really big).

 I was just thinking you have to be positive and trying to imagine that poor guy (he must be out there somewhere.

[bobby1]

Very interesting night on the NFL, it´s really changed the shape of things in the NFC. I think I´ve found a bit of value in a market that has significant implications for our San Francisco bet. I really think Seattle are worth a look for the NFC. They have a serious chance to win out now and if San Francisco don´t win at New England that gives them the division.

What do people think of Seattle @ 14/1 for the NFC? If they win out it´s a massive price, if they win 3 out of 4 then it´s possibly a little on the skinny side/about right but that makes it a bet in my book. Don´t want to place it without comments from the usual suspects as my experience is much more in handicap/points betting and the others will have a much better idea of if this is truly value or not.

Spent a bit more time researching this and talked myself in to having a decent bet. How would people price up the SF @ Seattle game at the moment? Surely SF aren´t better than 2.5 point favs there?

The difference between their home advantage and their away record would be pivotal in that bet. Tho the away record features a lot of very tight losses so I might be over simplifying that a bit. They have 3 home games left and a trip to Buffalo, my gut feeling is that the price seems tightish given that they are bang on the line of the play off places as it stands and fighting off teams behind them that could go past and less likely to go past the teams above them in the current standings. I think the price they are to make the play offs coupled with the price they will be to win the conference if they do get in is probably bigger than 14/1 as they will then be medium sized outsiders in almost all the away games they are likely to have. So to make the price shorter they will have to win the Division and get some home advantage, maybe the best way to get with them is to bet them to win the Div and then parlay that up for the Conference or lay San Fran for the Div and have that on for Conference afterwards.( you might be able to lay 1.2 to 1.25 )

There are some related games that deffo help Seattle in the Conference standings tho, Chicago play Green Bay and Washington play the Giants and Dallas in the next few weeks so those teams around them can't all win out and splitting results that favour them is more likely.

Hi Bobby thanks very much for the input. The thing is it really does look like if they win the division there is an excellent chance they will have the number 2 seed. They are 100% at home, with St Louis and Zona to come where they really should win, so San Fran at home with the most fired up 12th man in years and an inexperienced QB in opposition and Buffalo away for a great shot at the number 2 seed. I must have got a bit carried as two good judges on forum and the only good judge I know off forum aren´t that keen but I really do like this one :-).

they deffo could win the Div, my reservation is that game against San Fran is so important in their chances of winning the Conference that the difference in prices it would make them at the Conference stage is big. In short I think they can do what you want them to do, I am just not sure the price they are is big enough to bet that they do all of that and then win the Conference too. Getting with them to win the Div( or against San Fran) first might be a little better.

[bobby1]

I didn't have all of those Phil (I was on Rams +7.5, followed Tighty with Philly +10.5, swore a lot and then unswore on that one, and the under really big).

 I was just thinking you have to be positive and trying to imagine that poor guy (he must be out there somewhere.

ahh I see. Sorry,I misread your post

[Matt.NFFC.]

If it hasn't been spotted already.......

Lincoln v Woking on Tuesday night.  Over 2.5 goals @ 1.62

Lincoln's last 6 matches have had 6, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3 in them.

Woking's last 6 matches have had 7, 7, 3, 6, 4, 3 in them.

Surely must be a goal fest this one.  Not the best price but on those stats there has to be goals I think.

Suggest a few bob on this Mr Tikay, my mate is a Lincoln fan and he says they can't defend to save their lives!

[Chompy]

Rather than backing Seattle @ 14-1 for the NFC, wouldn't you be better off backing them at 33-1 outright? Or 33-1 each-way 1/2 1-2?

[bobby1]

I didn't have all of those Phil (I was on Rams +7.5, followed Tighty with Philly +10.5, swore a lot and then unswore on that one, and the under really big).

 I was just thinking you have to be positive and trying to imagine that poor guy (he must be out there somewhere.

yes, there must be someone somewhere that cannot believe how he ran yesterday. I suppose the counterbalance of that is Tikay who has ten pound notes stuffed into his underpants today after his own personal betting weekend ended up with him picking a 28/1 winner that won hard held.

Post more Tony ;-)