Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

Erick Ochieng v Max Maxwell

Ochieng >>>>>>>>>>>> Maxwell and that is reflected in the price.  The MOV market is wrong though.  Ochieng by stoppage is 4/6 and on points is 2/1 (2/1 is with Sky but 7/4 with Boyles is still good).  It should be the other way around.  Maxwell has been stopped twice but both came in the first round when caught cold.  He is very limited but very game and went the full 12 rounds against Rose for the British title (Fred backed Rose points at 6/4), and he only has to see out 10 tonight.  Ochieng is not as good as Rose and not a big puncher (4 stoppages in 11 wins).  Providing he doesn't get caught cold Maxwell should hear the final bell pretty comfortably and be a bit more competitive than he was against Rose. This is Max territory.

How did this get on? Can't find anythng about it online, I see the bout started supposedly just after 7pm.

[Bazzaboy]

Erick Ochieng v Max Maxwell

Ochieng >>>>>>>>>>>> Maxwell and that is reflected in the price.  The MOV market is wrong though.  Ochieng by stoppage is 4/6 and on points is 2/1 (2/1 is with Sky but 7/4 with Boyles is still good).  It should be the other way around.  Maxwell has been stopped twice but both came in the first round when caught cold.  He is very limited but very game and went the full 12 rounds against Rose for the British title (Fred backed Rose points at 6/4), and he only has to see out 10 tonight.  Ochieng is not as good as Rose and not a big puncher (4 stoppages in 11 wins).  Providing he doesn't get caught cold Maxwell should hear the final bell pretty comfortably and be a bit more competitive than he was against Rose. This is Max territory.

Ochieng wins by UD.  If only it was always that easy.

[Bazzaboy]

I quite fancy backing the draw in the Marquez v Pacman fight tonight.

The last 3 times these two have fought have been controversial decisions.

They have had 1 draw, 1 split decision and the latest was a majority decision for pacman but it was a very controversial decision as many thought that Marquez actually won the fight.

I think there is value at 22/1 on BF for the fight to be a draw.

This is my first bet that I have posted on here so feel free to ignore but I do feel that there is a strong chance this fight will be a stalemate!!

Was thinking similar about this fight. Def think the 22-1 with tote/fred is a small bit of value. Betfair is actually a worse price after comish.

Have had a throwaway tenner on this. Won't chuck away the 230 notes should they appear in my account tmrw tho.

There are worse 22/1 shots out there. Bwin went 8/1 a split decision earlier in the week which I liked a lot (now 7/2).

[scotty2hatty]

Click to see full-size image.

I have a recommendation for the main event of this evening's UFC on FOX 5 event where Benson Henderson's lightweight title is on the line against Nate Diaz.

Henderson is the champion and a worthy favourite, he's a big guy for the weight class, a natural athlete and a multi-skilled fighter. I think he'll be too good for Diaz who specialises in boxing and BJJ. On the feet it'll be a battle of Diaz's accurate punches versus Bendo's powerful leg kicks and punches. Whilst it might be even on the feet, Henderson's more powerful strikes will be the bigger point scorers. The difference will be Henderson's wrestling and takedowns, he'll be able to take Diaz down if and when he wants. On the ground, Diaz's dangerous BJJ will keep him in the fight with Bendo laying down some strikes and avoiding submission attempts.

Henderson is 17-2 with 7 decision wins and 8 submission victories. He has won 5 in a row inside the UFC cage, all by decision. The majority of his submission victories have came at the start of the career when it is likely he was advantageously matched up. Diaz has 7 career losses, with 6 of those by decision. I think we can rule out the KO victory for Bendo. All roads point to this lasting the full 5 rounds with Henderson's hand being raised.

Suggest £40 Benson Henderson to win on points @ 5/4 with WillHill.

Fight likely to start at about 2am-ish.

[TheDazzler]

I don't think there is a recommend up yet for the free £50 Bet365 offer?
I know Fred is restricted on Bet365 but I'm pretty sure you won't be for this promo bet.

If we accept that the market prices are correct for this match then our best option is to find what markets B365 are best priced about. I can see 3 of these.

1. Nitty option:
£50 Man United to score 1st @ 6/5, then as soon as it kicks off have another £50 on the same bet.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/team-to-score-first

2. Degen option:
£50 'Highest scoring half' to be a draw @ 11/4, then same again when it kicks off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/highest-scoring-half

3. Super Degen option:
£50 Ashley Young 1st goalscorer @ 16/1, same bet again at kick off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/first-goalscorer

I'll give a 4th option, which is the nittiest of all. Even though it isn't best priced, it's very close and obviously has the highest chance of actually winning.

4. United to receive the first card @ 8/11, same bet again at kick off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/first-team-booking
Referee Martin Atkinson is the most card happy ref in the Prem with an average of 3.92 yellows/match so no cards shouldn't be a runner (but you could have a £1 saver on 'no cards' with Paddy Power @ 90/1 if you so wish).
City have received 16 yellows in total, United 23.
City have received 8 at home, United 13 away.
Going by the ridiculously tiny sample size of 8 matches each, the price is good

There ya go. It doesn't matter which one you pick but a free bet must be taken advantage of.

[The Camel]

I don't think there is a recommend up yet for the free £50 Bet365 offer?
I know Fred is restricted on Bet365 but I'm pretty sure you won't be for this promo bet.

If we accept that the market prices are correct for this match then our best option is to find what markets B365 are best priced about. I can see 3 of these.

1. Nitty option:
£50 Man United to score 1st @ 6/5, then as soon as it kicks off have another £50 on the same bet.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/team-to-score-first

2. Degen option:
£50 'Highest scoring half' to be a draw @ 11/4, then same again when it kicks off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/highest-scoring-half

3. Super Degen option:
£50 Ashley Young 1st goalscorer @ 16/1, same bet again at kick off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/first-goalscorer

I'll give a 4th option, which is the nittiest of all. Even though it isn't best priced, it's very close and obviously has the highest chance of actually winning.

4. United to receive the first card @ 8/11, same bet again at kick off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/first-team-booking
Referee Martin Atkinson is the most card happy ref in the Prem with an average of 3.92 yellows/match so no cards shouldn't be a runner (but you could have a £1 saver on 'no cards' with Paddy Power @ 90/1 if you so wish).
City have received 16 yellows in total, United 23.
City have received 8 at home, United 13 away.
Going by the ridiculously tiny sample size of 8 matches each, the price is good

There ya go. It doesn't matter which one you pick but a free bet must be taken advantage of.

Nice work.

However it is one of the improbable times when you just back whatever you fancy to happen, because you are getting value whatever it is.

For example, if you fancy Man City you are getting 12/5.

[Bazzaboy]

Click to see full-size image.

I have a recommendation for the main event of this evening's UFC on FOX 5 event where Benson Henderson's lightweight title is on the line against Nate Diaz.

Henderson is the champion and a worthy favourite, he's a big guy for the weight class, a natural athlete and a multi-skilled fighter. I think he'll be too good for Diaz who specialises in boxing and BJJ. On the feet it'll be a battle of Diaz's accurate punches versus Bendo's powerful leg kicks and punches. Whilst it might be even on the feet, Henderson's more powerful strikes will be the bigger point scorers. The difference will be Henderson's wrestling and takedowns, he'll be able to take Diaz down if and when he wants. On the ground, Diaz's dangerous BJJ will keep him in the fight with Bendo laying down some strikes and avoiding submission attempts.

Henderson is 17-2 with 7 decision wins and 8 submission victories. He has won 5 in a row inside the UFC cage, all by decision. The majority of his submission victories have came at the start of the career when it is likely he was advantageously matched up. Diaz has 7 career losses, with 6 of those by decision. I think we can rule out the KO victory for Bendo. All roads point to this lasting the full 5 rounds with Henderson's hand being raised.

Suggest £40 Benson Henderson to win on points @ 5/4 with WillHill.

Fight likely to start at about 2am-ish.

Nice call

[BorntoBubble]

Click to see full-size image.

I have a recommendation for the main event of this evening's UFC on FOX 5 event where Benson Henderson's lightweight title is on the line against Nate Diaz.

Henderson is the champion and a worthy favourite, he's a big guy for the weight class, a natural athlete and a multi-skilled fighter. I think he'll be too good for Diaz who specialises in boxing and BJJ. On the feet it'll be a battle of Diaz's accurate punches versus Bendo's powerful leg kicks and punches. Whilst it might be even on the feet, Henderson's more powerful strikes will be the bigger point scorers. The difference will be Henderson's wrestling and takedowns, he'll be able to take Diaz down if and when he wants. On the ground, Diaz's dangerous BJJ will keep him in the fight with Bendo laying down some strikes and avoiding submission attempts.

Henderson is 17-2 with 7 decision wins and 8 submission victories. He has won 5 in a row inside the UFC cage, all by decision. The majority of his submission victories have came at the start of the career when it is likely he was advantageously matched up. Diaz has 7 career losses, with 6 of those by decision. I think we can rule out the KO victory for Bendo. All roads point to this lasting the full 5 rounds with Henderson's hand being raised.

Suggest £40 Benson Henderson to win on points @ 5/4 with WillHill.

Fight likely to start at about 2am-ish.

Nice call

yeh thanks for this i got on at 2.5 on betfair so not to bad!

[superwomble]

I don't think there is a recommend up yet for the free £50 Bet365 offer?
I know Fred is restricted on Bet365 but I'm pretty sure you won't be for this promo bet.

If we accept that the market prices are correct for this match then our best option is to find what markets B365 are best priced about. I can see 3 of these.

1. Nitty option:
£50 Man United to score 1st @ 6/5, then as soon as it kicks off have another £50 on the same bet.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/team-to-score-first

2. Degen option:
£50 'Highest scoring half' to be a draw @ 11/4, then same again when it kicks off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/highest-scoring-half

3. Super Degen option:
£50 Ashley Young 1st goalscorer @ 16/1, same bet again at kick off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/first-goalscorer

I'll give a 4th option, which is the nittiest of all. Even though it isn't best priced, it's very close and obviously has the highest chance of actually winning.

4. United to receive the first card @ 8/11, same bet again at kick off.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-man-utd/first-team-booking
Referee Martin Atkinson is the most card happy ref in the Prem with an average of 3.92 yellows/match so no cards shouldn't be a runner (but you could have a £1 saver on 'no cards' with Paddy Power @ 90/1 if you so wish).
City have received 16 yellows in total, United 23.
City have received 8 at home, United 13 away.
Going by the ridiculously tiny sample size of 8 matches each, the price is good

There ya go. It doesn't matter which one you pick but a free bet must be taken advantage of.

5. Proper nitty option - back something like ManUre or Man City pre, then the draw in-play, guarantee a profit.

[tikay]

Morning all.

I'm afraid I was AWOL from around Midday yesterday, & have not been online since.

Guess I missed a bunch of winners.........

I know Bazza got a bet home, great stuff, & Tighty gave two lovely winners.

Normal service returns today, when I'll be around to back a bunch of losers.

What a thing this punting is.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1055, Sunday December 9th   

LOSS on Month = £396.34

Unsettled Bets  - £998.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=15

[Tal]

Latest chess report is here:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1679677#msg1679677

Nothing grabs me in today's market. The table looks like this:

Click to see full-size image.

Remember it's three for a win, one for a draw and nothing for a defeat. If Adams and Kramnik both fail to win today, Carlsen will win the tournament with a round to spare. Adams is Black against Aronian, so he has a tough game. Kramnik is a huge favourite against Gawain Jones (Jones is 17/1) with the White pieces, but these two will draw a decent proportion of the time because of how good Jones is as a player (always easy to forget how good even the weaker players are in these things).

More likely, Carlsen will need in his game against Anand tomorrow to match Kramnik's result. We'll cross the bridge of sorting out permutations if we have to tomorrow. Kramnik and Adams each have to win both of their remaining games to stand a chance of lifting the trophy and they play each other tomorrow (and what a brilliant draw for the neutral that is!).



Kramnik helps with the commentary alongside someone you might recognise: former World Title Challenger Nigel Short.

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at 1130, Sunday 9th December

£30 went south yesterday.

Our last Test Series bet (3-1 India) lost, £10, & our Arsenal lay caught both teams at the point their good/bad runs ended for -£53.

A £5 insurance bet on Exeter (RL) to draw was no good, but hector once again found us a clever RU Bet, Exeter, which cashed for +£38.

Time we started getting a few winners, (or I started actually getting on the winners you kerep giving us) we are £400 in the hole 8 days into the month.

We are on West Ham to beat Liverpool today, at a good price.

There are two decent football games on TV, then it’s Sunday night NFL.

By tonight, we will be in the red this month by nearly £500, or we will have reduced our red numbers.

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[tikay]

Latest chess report is here:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1679677#msg1679677

Nothing grabs me in today's market. The table looks like this:

Click to see full-size image.

Remember it's three for a win, one for a draw and nothing for a defeat. If Adams and Kramnik both fail to win today, Carlsen will win the tournament with a round to spare. Adams is Black against Aronian, so he has a tough game. Kramnik is a huge favourite against Gawain Jones (Jones is 17/1) with the White pieces, but these two will draw a decent proportion of the time because of how good Jones is as a player (always easy to forget how good even the weaker players are in these things).

More likely, Carlsen will need in his game against Anand tomorrow to match Kramnik's result. We'll cross the bridge of sorting out permutations if we have to tomorrow. Kramnik and Adams each have to win both of their remaining games to stand a chance of lifting the trophy and they play each other tomorrow (and what a brilliant draw for the neutral that is!).



Kramnik helps with the commentary alongside someone you might recognise: former World Title Challenger Nigel Short.

Great stuff Advent Calendar man.

I have really enjoyed this chess sweat, & the daily reports, even though our bet is fairly modest.

Looks like we are nearly over the line, but I hope we can do another of these soon.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Clermont v Leinster today 4pm.

I am feeling incredibly nitty for some reason. Clermont haven't lost at home for over 2 years and it is hard to think that Leinster have the firepower to topple them but it will be close. It is a huge game as both sides are unbeaten in the Heineken cup so the pressure is on. I am very tempted to go for under 34 points at 15/8 but my nittiness is saying go safe. I think that the price for under 40.5 points is a 1-2 shot.

So £24 under 40.5 points @ 11/12 with Pinnacle.

P.S this is I believe only the 2nd ever odds on tip I have given.