Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

Mmmmm....clockwise....

[Doobs]

Don't fancy Toady or Claire much tbh. Claire was apparently behind the break-up of Steps, or at least her and Haitch were. Boooo!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq7iQPbiq1Y

Toady is very Australian and seems to be a lot like his character in real life. He may grate.

At this stage Rylan is probably a worthy favourite. He was v.popular with other contestants on The X Factor and seems pretty sharp.

Betting on CBB pre-race is rarely the best idea though tbh. Except in the case of Julian Clary obv.

Surely breaking up Steps is something the whole world should be thankful for.  She has killed any potential popularity by getting back together mind.

Not to Chompy. He has "Steps" photos in his bedroom.

I expect the photos aren't nearly as painful

[BigAdz]

Although been a member of Blonde for almost seven yrs, only got involved recently.

The Clary coup that Chompy keeps harping on about sounds like a coup that needs explaining please.

NB, Sadly forced to watch X factor this year, and whilst Ms Clarke appeared to be less annoying than first thought by the editing, I am pretty sure he will be a right drama queen in the house. They dont win do they? Dont level heads and that win the day?

[tikay]

Although been a member of Blonde for almost seven yrs, only got involved recently.

The Clary coup that Chompy keeps harping on about sounds like a coup that needs explaining please.

NB, Sadly forced to watch X factor this year, and whilst Ms Clarke appeared to be less annoying than first thought by the editing, I am pretty sure he will be a right drama queen in the house. They dont win do they? Dont level heads and that win the day?

Groan again.

Chompy named 93 different winners of one series of CBB, & one of them, Julia someone, won it, & he has not stopped banging on about it since. Hence my challenge to him, which, I note, he has swerved.

[BigAdz]

LOL. Nuf said

[Chompy]

I put J.Clary up as a rec bet, and Camel and Tighty conquered.

However, it was to be another REBUFF! 4/1 was buying money we all sayed. Ignored we were.

Toady is a dick confirmed...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZaZWAeTK4E

[david3103]

That picture of Mr Edmonds...is Deal or No Deal really that old? 2006?

How much mileage can you get out of a random number game?

BTW I see Barry Hearn is trying to bring back ping-pong (note, not Table Tennis - I learned today that they are as different as Blackjack and Pontoon) and is organising a big tournament at Ally Pally.

Any whiff-whaffers on Fred?

When "Deal or No Deal" started in the UK, obviously the biggest heap of poo ever seen on TV pre BB & CBB, it was the subject of the busiest thread on blonde at the time. The Thread Starter, & most active contributor, was a famous & still much respected old-skool poker player, John Shipley. Who'd have thunk?

In related random trivia bollox, John Shipley, Camel, myself & others once hooked up for a meal at an eatery called "Mad O'Rourke's Pie Factory" in Tipton, West Midlands. Can't make this stuff up.







 

Ohhhhhh Mad O'Rourke's Pies nom nom nom

When we lived in the Midlands we used to make pilgrimages to the Black Country to seek out Real Ales. Tthis was back when CAMRA was a proper campaign and fighting the tide of brewery closures.
The Swan aka Ma Pardoe's was another regular stop as was The Vine/Bull & Bladder in Brierley Hill.

I appreciate that this interjection may have distracted from the serious business of making bets on a reality show, but the memories were too strong!

[tikay]

I hate to sound like a broken record, but didn't Fred agree that Premiership hold no edge for us? 

Hi Adz.

Good question.

The default is that we do NOT back Premier League football game “outrights”. I don’t believe it is possible for us to beat that market. The Bookies make their money on these games, because, as with poker players, everyone thinks they are pros. They are not.

Football has the highest number of Fred Bets by far – 358 - & the highest amount staked too, obv - over £12,500. The ROI is a very satisfactory (imo) + 4.35%.

If we had not bet any Premier League Games, that ROI would be far higher.

This Season, these are the “outright” bets on the Premier League. This EXCLUDES Sub-markets, Banzais & Priority Offers etc.

September 3 bets, 2 lost

October – 4 bets, 3 lost

November 2 bets, both lost

December – 4 bets, all lost.

Although sample size etc, there were three PL games last night, & recommends for all three were Posted. All would have lost.

So, although MORE suggestions are Posted by more people for PL games (outright), we have to swerve them all.

Why did we go with Camel last night then?

We have a rule here – we back ALL “elders” & experts suggestions blind. Keith would not stick a bet up unless it was deemed good value.

The Thread consists of 90% “amateur” or “recreational” punters, & a handful of Elders & Experts in various specialised areas of betting, Darts, NFL, UFC, RU, RL, Cricket etc. To my mind, we would be daft to ignore the Elders & Experts suggestions. Sample Size means they are not all profitable, but we either have faith in them, or we don’t.

Note also that after Camel stuck the bet up, another Elder, redarmi, who does this for a living, both sides of the counter, analysed the logic & maths as follows….


Not sure if you remember but Fred had a decent lay of Everton in the reverse fixture at, iirc, 4/7.  We won it (the bet rather than game) with a very late goal and Newcastle looked all at sea that day but they also had a lot of injuries.  Effectively today Everton are shorter than they were that day although we have lot more games to go on now and it is possible we made an error on our assessment of the teams that day given both teams subsequent results but irrespective they do seem very short indeed today.  It is the equivalent of 1/2 at Goodison.  It would be nowhere near as strong for me as in the reverse fixture but I think they should probably be in the region of 5/4 today so a lay of Everton at 2.14ish seems fair for a small bet to me.

The fact it lost is irrelevant. I have to accept their word that it was “value”.

As Camel later stated, it is almost impossible to have an edge backing PL games, but nevertheless, occasionally, a situation arises where value is available. It is exceedingly rare.

This does NOT apply to Sub-Markets, where, imo, there is very frequently a bit of value to be found if we look hard enough.

Does all that make sense?

[horseplayer]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2013/jan/03/match-fixing-scandal-south-africa?CMP=twt_gu

more interesting developments on something i posted a few weeks back

[smashedagain]

That picture of Mr Edmonds...is Deal or No Deal really that old? 2006?

How much mileage can you get out of a random number game?

BTW I see Barry Hearn is trying to bring back ping-pong (note, not Table Tennis - I learned today that they are as different as Blackjack and Pontoon) and is organising a big tournament at Ally Pally.

Any whiff-whaffers on Fred?

all to do with the bats I think.

[tikay]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2013/jan/03/match-fixing-scandal-south-africa?CMP=twt_gu

more interesting developments on something i posted a few weeks back

Wow.....

At times bets were placed on matches that did not even happen, such as the notorious ghost game between the Under-21 sides of Turkmenistan and the Maldives when a local 'spotter' employed by bookmakers filed regular dispatches on an entirely fictional encounter.

And.....


vast amounts were placed on there being more than 2.5 goals in each game. Sure enough, Latvia beat Bolivia 2-1 and Estonia drew 2-2 with Bulgaria, all seven goals coming from penalties

[Tal]

What do our Elders think of Birmingham City's chances of relegation? At first sight, they seem to be OK, but there are a lot of financial problems (the chairman and sole owner is currently subject of a trial in Hong Kong, relating to his finances) and the court case has been put back to May, with, I believe, assets frozen in the interim.

A lot of worried fans round my way and the debts are reportedly racking up. They aren't pulling crowds in at St Andrew's.

If they slip into administration, that's an automatic 10 point deduction.

15/2 floating about for the drop.

[horseplayer]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2013/jan/03/match-fixing-scandal-south-africa?CMP=twt_gu

more interesting developments on something i posted a few weeks back

Wow.....

At times bets were placed on matches that did not even happen, such as the notorious ghost game between the Under-21 sides of Turkmenistan and the Maldives when a local 'spotter' employed by bookmakers filed regular dispatches on an entirely fictional encounter.

And.....


vast amounts were placed on there being more than 2.5 goals in each game. Sure enough, Latvia beat Bolivia 2-1 and Estonia drew 2-2 with Bulgaria, all seven goals coming from penalties

yes interesting

in all of the game involved it is not the teams under any suspicion but the referee

[horseplayer]

these "Penalties" are even more laughable than the Argentina game

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvpYogEGnF8#t=1m10s


it is almost laughable but for some of the smaller nations every draw even in a friendly is vital

[rfgqqabc]

Everton into 9/2 best price for top 4. does look good now

The match fixing really is a joke. How do the players not realise?