Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Everton into 9/2 best price for top 4. does look good now

The match fixing really is a joke. How do the players not realise?

if you watch a lot of the clips with this ref and others the "group" have organised the players reactions do tell you they sense something is not quite right

[rfgqqabc]

Everton into 9/2 best price for top 4. does look good now

The match fixing really is a joke. How do the players not realise?

if you watch a lot of the clips with this ref and others the "group" have organised the players reactions do tell you they sense something is not quite right

Hmmmm, i watched it again and I can kind of see what you mean, but ultimately they just didn't say anything? Always hard to know in this situation i guess.

[horseplayer]

Everton into 9/2 best price for top 4. does look good now

The match fixing really is a joke. How do the players not realise?

if you watch a lot of the clips with this ref and others the "group" have organised the players reactions do tell you they sense something is not quite right

Hmmmm, i watched it again and I can kind of see what you mean, but ultimately they just didn't say anything? Always hard to know in this situation i guess.

well the south African players are hardly going to say anything and the opposition complained after the game but it was rejected

in the infamous argentina game there players hassled the ref throughout

[BigAdz]

All makes perfect sense Tikay.

I flagged it bacause I could see things were encouraging a lay bet on Everton based on value, but I would have thought the value was probably the other way round as Ba was probably factored in to play, yet didnt, and based on recent form to the lay punter on football(me) it screamed away win.

The other two results were also strangely predictable of sorts. We have made plenty laying Liverpool at home, yet surely to God were going to give someone a shooing soon enough, so caution was wise.

Similarly the Chelsea game, inevitabley this on paper was a 1-10 shot but invariably they are the coupon busters, wether the players adopt that mind set and the favs drop their guard and the underdogs battle harder, I know not, but too often its not the mid table matches that cause upsets for the top teams its the ones they have viewed as certain 3 pointers.

To me it just underlines why Prem games should be avoided, but wholeheartedly agree the smaller markets still throw up great opportunities.

[BigAdz]

Re match fixing. Didnt the article say 14% said they knew of it/witnessed it. This sort of number would suggest either the whole of one team, or individuals in other teams. How does the later work, surely its all in it together or it just doesnt work, unless that one person is the keeper each time?

[tikay]

All makes perfect sense Tikay.

I flagged it bacause I could see things were encouraging a lay bet on Everton based on value, but I would have thought the value was probably the other way round as Ba was probably factored in to play, yet didnt, and based on recent form to the lay punter on football(me) it screamed away win.

The other two results were also strangely predictable of sorts. We have made plenty laying Liverpool at home, yet surely to God were going to give someone a shooing soon enough, so caution was wise.

Similarly the Chelsea game, inevitabley this on paper was a 1-10 shot but invariably they are the coupon busters, wether the players adopt that mind set and the favs drop their guard and the underdogs battle harder, I know not, but too often its not the mid table matches that cause upsets for the top teams its the ones they have viewed as certain 3 pointers.

To me it just underlines why Prem games should be avoided, but wholeheartedly agree the smaller markets still throw up great opportunities.

Thanks Adz.

It was a great question, & in truth, the reply was aimed at everyone, not just you.

It is really quite awkward for me to keep turning down (potential) bets on Premier League Games, but once I got the lie of the land, I pretty much made that the default setting.

We will still spot the very rare value opportunity, & bet it, but I would think such examples are 4 or 5 a season at most. I really have no idea how those who only bet on Premier League games (around 80% + of all punters, though I'm talking industry, not Fred) manage, to be honest. Every week, every night almost, there is a coupon-buster.

[tikay]

Just a bit more on that. Some of our bigger wins have come from CL games, & I'm not sure how or why that is, but there seems to be more value there from time to time.

[edgascoigne]

Just a bit more on that. Some of our bigger wins have come from CL games, & I'm not sure how or why that is, but there seems to be more value there from time to time.

I would be surprised if it's not merely a question of sample size. Whilst I'm not saying it's impossible to find value in these markets, it will be rare that one beats the 'true' price by much, therefore if Fred is securing anything greater than a single figure % ROI in these markets I would suggest it is currently running well above EV.

On a slightly separate note I would suggest the markets where you can really secure chunks of equity at once (in the wholly theoretical situation where you are able to get on, and as opposed to other sports/markets where it is certainly possible to beat the price/line but not by much) will often be 'Specials' or Racing (specifically poor grade stuff and antepost).

[tikay]

Just a bit more on that. Some of our bigger wins have come from CL games, & I'm not sure how or why that is, but there seems to be more value there from time to time.

I would be surprised if it's not merely a question of sample size. Whilst I'm not saying it's impossible to find value in these markets, it will be rare that one beats the 'true' price by much, therefore if Fred is securing anything greater than a single figure % ROI in these markets I would suggest it is currently running well above EV.

On a slightly separate note I would suggest the markets where you can really secure chunks of equity at once (in the wholly theoretical situation where you are able to get on, and as opposed to other sports/markets where it is certainly possible to beat the price/line but not by much) will often be 'Specials' or Racing (specifically poor grade stuff and antepost).

Yes, I'm quite sure you are correct as to CL Sample Size. Chelsea won't beat a rampant Barca very often, especially when Chelsea have 10 men & Barca get a penalty which Messi missed & have 80% possession, but we were on when they did.

Timing is all....

[The Camel]

I think making a blanket rule such as "no bets on the PL" is a bit silly.

While I agree they are much more unlikely to yield value, there are always exceptions.

Usually this will be betting very early (often a week before the match) just after the bookmakers have priced the matches up, or in the minutes prior to a game when the market has over reacted to a piece of news or shifted too far one way of another.

After seeing Newcastle v QPR just before Christmas, I would argue pretty strongly that losing Ba was not much of a negative to the Toon's chances.

He gave little appreciable effort for the entire 90 minutes and Shola showed far more in 20 minutes.

Ba wanted out. And it affected his performance.

I find often when there is one or only a couple of matches for punters to get their teeth into, the market moves more than if there is a full card. Hence opposing the market moves can provide value.


BTW, I was very much mistaken when I said "draw betting doesn't represent value". It does occasionally. And just as PL betting shouldn't be discounted betting on the draw shouldn't either.

[Doobs]

There was definitely a case for laying Liverpool for a long time, though I have raised the opinion recently that the time may have gone.

I would also add that if we are going to put a blanket ban on premiership betting, we should also put a blanket ban on other strong markets.

A few markets where there is/was huge volume off the top of my head: NFL winners, US elections, test matches, champions league, NBA and Cheltenham.   

Edga is right, some of the sample sizes that are used for evidence here are really too small.  You can make some serious mistakes by looking at small sample sizes and assuming you are seeing something special.  There wasn't really much evidence at all that singhee was a much better tipster than Jeff Kimber, yet one is mentioned in glowing terms, the other has been raised a bit too often as a thread mistake. 

I can also assure you that long run, I run nowhere close to the 100% or so ROI I have managed from 20 or so accepted tips.

Despite all this, I think we often have the balance about right, and a lot of these premiership bets don't seem very compelling to me.

PS Anybody got a link to the betting on the draw at football is always bad evidence?   I suspect I could produce some for rugby matches.

[tikay]

There is not a "blanket ban" on Premiership betting, just a default setting that in most cases it is not going to be accepted, the exceptions being when those that undersatand maths or value support it.

Jeff Kimber has never been blamed for our NBA results, in fact he has not contributed many bets. No individual has ever been blamed for bad bets in fact, but as Jeff's name was mentoned, I must exonerate him.

I agree as to Sample Sizes. We have placed around 1,000 bets, & we will never place enough to overcome Sample Size issues. But we have to start somewhere. 1,000 is better than 100, just as 10,000 is better than 1,000.

There is also another dimension which is hard to explain, quantify or justify, which is that I have another motive for trying to make the thread successful, in that for the health of the Forum, the Thread, & blonde generally, I want it to be inclusive to EVERYONE, not just the Elders & Experts.

There is, from time to time, a cost to that, but it is what it is, I am determined that it be open to all, & strangers & newbies not be afraid to get involved. There is a balance to be maintained, between a thread for successful punters, & those who are trying to learn. As long as we can keep the overall number positive, AND keep the thread fun, that's the most important result. 

[tikay]

^^^^

I have just noticed I DID say......


So, although MORE suggestions are Posted by more people for PL games (outright), we have to swerve them all.

This was incorrect of course, but I corrected the position later in the same Post by saying....



As Camel later stated, it is almost impossible to have an edge backing PL games, but nevertheless, occasionally, a situation arises where value is available. It is exceedingly rare.

I also stated.....

We have a rule here – we back ALL “elders” & experts suggestions blind

So I needed to clarify that one line where I mis-stated the position.

Apologies for the poor explainage.

[ripple11]

Just watching the news about the up coming Falklands vote on British Sovereignty, and obviously to remain British is 1/500 on.

However, does anyone have a contact there lol.... because it only needs 21 "friends" out of 3000 ish........


http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british-politics/falklands-referendum-e216111422-m223787629#

[Tal]

From Celebrity Big Brother to challenging the Crown's sovereignty in a day.

Tips for Tikay: more than just a betting thread.