Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

We deffo need to determine the difference between betting teams in the Prem( and in general) and laying them too. Most bets put up are for teams to win games and at prices that are pretty uniform which is always going to be hard to beat the higher up the ladder. Laying teams like last night's bet is simply saying this price is now overbet/too short allowing too much for xxx, so the price is determining why you are having the bet, not simply that you fancy it. If it was 13/10 then it might not have been seen as a lay but at 2.1odd it was. So the first 'bet' is taking a position in a solid market and having to select the winner, the lay bet was laying a price that had contracted too far and having 2 of the 3 results going for you. You don't have to pick a winner.

The difference there tho is 90% of punters would look at the game and bet Everton at a much shorter price than was available before the Ba news changed the game, even tho the price (2.14 ish) now took that news into account.  That's the most important bit really, if you haven't got on before the Ba news changed the market then the market now takes into account the Ba news, so where is the edge at 2.14 on a team that were 2.4 earlier in the week? In that spot laying them isn't saying they won't win but that you are happy to have the home win and the draw at the price instead.

As an example in reverse, the bet put up for West Ham to beat Liverpool at 5/2 str8 after Suarez got a yellow that gave him a suspension for that game is when you have to bet. You are not saying that West Ham would win the game but that their chance has just got much better. If you backed them at 2/1 on the morning of the game coz Suarez was out and West Ham's chance had got much better that info was now in the price.

[DungBeetle]

Suggestion:

Wolves are 11/10 to beat non league Luton on Saturday.  Wolves have been pretty wretched but the key here is Solbakken knows if they don't win he is likely out of a job which I think is key in making sure he fields a strong side.  There is a huge gap between a Championship team with a big budget andan upper mid table conference side and I fully expect this to be shown at Kenilworth Road.  Wolves should be odds on.

Suggest a chunky bet based on the "must pick my best team to save my ass" theory.

[MANTIS01]

I like the Villa shout at evens and have backed. I think Lambert's absolute priority is getting the team into a winning habit and putting a run together, and what an apportunity to do this. I don't buy this concentrate on the league business for clubs flirting with relegation. A win brings a struggling club an array of positives which aren't worth risking so some players are a bit fresher. Villa are a big club playing at home vs a lower league side who got spanked last time out and losing would be bad. If you're chasing promotion, stone last or don't think the game is winable I can see why a manager may field a weakened side but here Lambert will be totally committed to a win. A similar game is Fulham vs Blackpool and the prem side is 4/6.

[DungBeetle]

For anyone on Watford, they have re-signed Chalobah till end of season from Chelsea.  Very important to the team that.  Now need to dodge points deductions.  Oh, and losing at home to Charlton type teams.  The game at Boro feels like a big one.  If we can get something out of that the remaining 3 fixtures in January are very winnable.

[DungBeetle]

Echoing what Mantis says, the game at Crawley seems a good chance for Reading to build a bit of confident after their improved league form.  Crawley have been a bit ropey for the last couple of months and 6/4 seems more than fair on them winning at the first time of asking.

So my two up for consideration at the weekend are Wolves and Reading, both on the road.

[bobby1]

Echoing what Mantis says, the game at Crawley seems a good chance for Reading to build a bit of confident after their improved league form.  Crawley have been a bit ropey for the last couple of months and 6/4 seems more than fair on them winning at the first time of asking.

So my two up for consideration at the weekend are Wolves and Reading, both on the road.

I liked Reading in that game too, Norwich too if they field ok teams. The trick now tho as I see it is getting on if the team news looks good and rethinking it if it looks like being bad.

Locality is a big help here, maybe Longy could post up if he sees or hears anything or someone wuth their finger on Reading on how strong the team is likely to be. the good part of betting away teams is that they might list the squads so if we get to know this then we can guess roughly what the team might look like from the squad that has trevelled. But I would rather take 11/8 Reading knowing that the team is good than take 6/4 now when I am guessing a bit because we know that the prices on a lot of these cup matches are intermediate prices that are guesstimating how strong teams will be.

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-new-york/total-points

Im in for the max 5 units on O206.5 with william hill. Slow at moving the line so will have to be quick. Have a 2pt edge roughly on the market. Both offences very good. Will need Knicks to shoot well but for a big game like this I expect them to be up for it.

[redarmi]

I don't really understand this  issue with betting on the premiership either to be honest.  I regularly have two or three bets on a Premiership card and have had one losing premiership season in the last five I think.  I think there are a few important points to make though.  Firstly, they will almost always be thin value in that in the long run you are never going to win more than 4-5% on your money betting on premiership football.  There are isolated spots early in the week where you might exceed that but generally speaking they they are close.  

Secondly, and we keep reiterating this in Fred in general, but knowing that x team is better than this team or are in form isn't going to beat the market but making judgements that x are overrated or underrated by the market may.  Liverpool (until recently??) seem to have been a good example of this but teams can be overrated or underrated for individual games or a handful of games too.  I still think Villa recently have been a good example of this and may be again on Saturday.  I think an important point here comes from the mentality of odds compilers.  Lets say we have a notional match between Man United and Swansea at Old trafford.  Man United are largely out of the title race but still in the CL and have a big game coming up midweek against Real Madrid.  Normally I would make this game 1/5 MU but realistically I know Fergie will rest Rooney, RvP and all his other stars.  Even the players that will be selected and play will have half an eye on not getting injured on the off chance they have to play a part on Tuesday night.  Now as a compiler I think the right price about MU here should be, say, 1/2.  I cannot possibly chalk up 1/2 MU at home to Swansea.  They will be on every other coupon and that doesn't change much whether they are 1/5 or 1/2 but if I go 1/2 and we get buried I might lose my job so I chalk up 2/7.  Thats wrong.  I know it is wrong but I am not pricing based on probabilities I am pricing based on likely money flow.  Those spots, and they come up more often than you would think, occur only in the big leagues.  Nobody ever makes Southend too short a price because they will know there will be money for them every week but it happens to teams with big followings a lot.  It is also a reason to almost never back a big team.

The final reason for betting in the Premier League is that it is where all the betting money is.  Bookies want Premiership punters so they lower their margins.  In Asia firms like SBO, Pinny etc  bet Prem football to 101.26% with a bit of shopping around and smart picking of spots you should be betting to zero margin at absolute worst.  If you can't make a couple of percentage points on turnover from those markets then you arent trying hard enough.

[Marky147]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-new-york/total-points

Im in for the max 5 units on O206.5 with william hill. Slow at moving the line so will have to be quick. Have a 2pt edge roughly on the market. Both offences very good. Will need Knicks to shoot well but for a big game like this I expect them to be up for it.

They caught on lively after your post, line already moved to 208.5...... PP go 207 along with Sky and Betfred

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-new-york/total-points

Im in for the max 5 units on O206.5 with william hill. Slow at moving the line so will have to be quick. Have a 2pt edge roughly on the market. Both offences very good. Will need Knicks to shoot well but for a big game like this I expect them to be up for it.

Ah! Caught me napping - the line has moved to 208.5, though two firms still go 207.

Smaller bet @ O 207 perhaps?

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-new-york/total-points

Im in for the max 5 units on O206.5 with william hill. Slow at moving the line so will have to be quick. Have a 2pt edge roughly on the market. Both offences very good. Will need Knicks to shoot well but for a big game like this I expect them to be up for it.

Ah! Caught me napping - the line has moved to 208.5, though two firms still go 207.

Smaller bet @ O 207 perhaps?

yup, sounds good. £44 on O207. 207 points is a push not a loss so its not the end of the world.

[Karabiner]

There seems to have been a fair bit of money on our Supreme novice's pick Jezki in the last couple of days. We are on @ 8/1 and it's actually layable on betty @ under 9/2.

I'm not advising laying it but with the race 9+weeks away and many a slip twixt cup and lip I wouldn't blame anyone for so doing and taking a ~3.5 point freeroll.

[tikay]

There seems to have been a fair bit of money on our Supreme novice's pick Jezki in the last couple of days. We are on @ 8/1 and it's actually layable on betty @ under 9/2.

I'm not advising laying it but with the race 9+weeks away and many a slip twixt cup and lip I wouldn't blame anyone for so doing and taking a ~3.5 point freeroll.

Nice one Ralph.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-new-york/total-points

Im in for the max 5 units on O206.5 with william hill. Slow at moving the line so will have to be quick. Have a 2pt edge roughly on the market. Both offences very good. Will need Knicks to shoot well but for a big game like this I expect them to be up for it.

Ah! Caught me napping - the line has moved to 208.5, though two firms still go 207.

Smaller bet @ O 207 perhaps?

yup, sounds good. £44 on O207. 207 points is a push not a loss so its not the end of the world.

Thanks Tom.

We got £44 @ 10/11, Paddy Power, OVER 207, San Antonio Spurs v New York Knicks

ON

NBA Matches San Antonio Spurs At New York Knicks
04-01-2013 00:40
Total Points Scored
Over (207.0) @ 10/11
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Over (207.0) @ 10/11
1 line at £44.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £44.00
Potential returns: £84.00
No: O/23146337/0000236

 
Total stake: £44.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £44.00

[Rubbish2407]

The general belief in sunny Cardiff is they will be resting their entire starting XI on Saturday. I drink in a Cardiff City pub and everyone has been saying how bad they are playing but they've got that winning mentality they might not have had before which is seeing them through. A totally different XI might not have the same fortune and there's not many fans who would be "bovvered" if Cardiff lost.

You can lay them at 1.6 ish on the exchanges should you wish to. I think it might get lower so worth keeping an eye out. If it gets below 1.5 I'll be having some money on it.

Anyone have any thoughts?