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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16440823 times)
TheDazzler
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« Reply #2655 on: April 02, 2012, 07:28:00 PM »

the cricket bet is now 8-11 so we have beaten the price

unfourtantley in recent weeks i am very good at beating the price in nearly everything i back but not the winners!

Correct, I was just looking at that.

The Blackburn DNB has also firmed to 11/2 best, 5/1 generally, too. (We are on @ 6/1).

If I have absorbed the sermons correctly, if we beat the market, we have value. Mostly, sort of. 

You have beaten the price cos now YOU are the market. Bloom is so 2011. The Asian hordes are quaking as they see the ticker tape of WIN coming off this thread. The Chinese are thinking of renaming the Year of the Dragon to Year of The Tikay.

I'd love it if Adnmdv and Redarmi could price up the Pool vs Villa this weekend.
I stated before the Newcastle game that Pool were a great lay in this game. That price has now been slashed but is still very attractive imo. I think they were 1/4 and are now best priced 11/25. If the recent market backing of Pool happens again we might have an even better price come KO. Villa were best priced 9/1 in dnb market and are now best priced 7/1 (Stan James). Hopefully that drifts further.
Pool home form W5 D 8 L2. Won 33%
Villa away form W3 D 8 L4. Lost 27%

Pool are now in a full blown crisis. Serious question are being asked of Daglish. Pool have only won a third of their home games. The fans will be on their backs early if they don't get off to a flyer. They are displaying relegation form and have been for 3 months now. There is no way they should be shorter than 1/2 to win this game.

Villa are very poor and have injuries but they are very adept at avoiding defeat away from home. They have the 'serious injury' motivation with Petrov although I'm not sure how much benefit this really is. Petrov is their captain and a big loss to their first 11 and is the sort of player who would be a big factor if they were to get a result 'against the odds' in a match of this sort.

Anyway, one to keep an eye on regarding team news and market moves during the week. If the market moves heavy for Pool, I would suggest laying them as the main bet and maybe a small Villa dnb.
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« Reply #2656 on: April 02, 2012, 07:29:24 PM »

i wouldn't back watson at augusta in a million years, he'll cave if he does get near the top on sunday anyway. Augusta lacks the bail out areas of other courses so when he gets in trouble it will be be big trouble.

Garrigus has a lot going for him, i wouldn't put you off him. His putting is not up to the job though, you might be left pissed off about too many 3 putts and 10 footers missed.
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« Reply #2657 on: April 02, 2012, 07:32:19 PM »

Think i said this before elsewhere i would be amazed if rory or tiger don't win this. What price to back them both? Surely we get better than evens on one or the other?! Lump on!!!

around 2.4-1 mate. Fancy it myself gl
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« Reply #2658 on: April 02, 2012, 07:32:58 PM »

bobby i have been backing ogilivy for a while now at around 100-1 + he seems to really have a short schedule these days but all the stats are good for him as well

does he have a shot? (this was originally a steer from a friend)

thanks

i wouldn't back him anymore, i have won good money backing him in the past but his game has gone really mediocre, he used to big off the tee and hit a solid consistent draw but he's all over the place now. He has decent weeks but is nowhere near what he was 3/4 years ago.
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« Reply #2659 on: April 02, 2012, 07:34:38 PM »

the cricket bet is now 8-11 so we have beaten the price

unfourtantley in recent weeks i am very good at beating the price in nearly everything i back but not the winners!

Correct, I was just looking at that.

The Blackburn DNB has also firmed to 11/2 best, 5/1 generally, too. (We are on @ 6/1).

If I have absorbed the sermons correctly, if we beat the market, we have value. Mostly, sort of. 

You have beaten the price cos now YOU are the market. Bloom is so 2011. The Asian hordes are quaking as they see the ticker tape of WIN coming off this thread. The Chinese are thinking of renaming the Year of the Dragon to Year of The Tikay.

I'd love it if Adnmdv and Redarmi could price up the Pool vs Villa this weekend.
I stated before the Newcastle game that Pool were a great lay in this game. That price has now been slashed but is still very attractive imo. I think they were 1/4 and are now best priced 11/25. If the recent market backing of Pool happens again we might have an even better price come KO. Villa were best priced 9/1 in dnb market and are now best priced 7/1 (Stan James). Hopefully that drifts further.
Pool home form W5 D 8 L2. Won 33%
Villa away form W3 D 8 L4. Lost 27%

Pool are now in a full blown crisis. Serious question are being asked of Daglish. Pool have only won a third of their home games. The fans will be on their backs early if they don't get off to a flyer. They are displaying relegation form and have been for 3 months now. There is no way they should be shorter than 1/2 to win this game.

Villa are very poor and have injuries but they are very adept at avoiding defeat away from home. They have the 'serious injury' motivation with Petrov although I'm not sure how much benefit this really is. Petrov is their captain and a big loss to their first 11 and is the sort of player who would be a big factor if they were to get a result 'against the odds' in a match of this sort.

Anyway, one to keep an eye on regarding team news and market moves during the week. If the market moves heavy for Pool, I would suggest laying them as the main bet and maybe a small Villa dnb.

Liverpool are in crisis.

But Villa are the filling for Red Dog's horse shit sandwich.
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« Reply #2660 on: April 02, 2012, 07:37:28 PM »

bobby i have been backing ogilivy for a while now at around 100-1 + he seems to really have a short schedule these days but all the stats are good for him as well

does he have a shot? (this was originally a steer from a friend)

thanks

I hate putting people off anything really mate, I think he had some strange stat that he had only beaten 70 once around here untilthe last few years but he did run 4th last year, the prob then was he missed the cut in the other three majors and the last time he was in contention in Australia in the winter he played poorly/ and putted poorly to fall away.

I think he has struggled with the putter so far this year but did putt much better on his last start. . Maybe its the memory of him taking a 9 or 11 on one of the par 5's here when I was on him years ago and he had a chance that has scarred me but I don't fancy him much this week.

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« Reply #2661 on: April 02, 2012, 07:39:41 PM »

surely if you are doing anybody other than tiger the best place to do so is paddy power?

top 6 for each way and refund on win part if Tiger wins it; might take a shade off some of the prices but with the tiger promo combined with top 6 is a no brainer?
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« Reply #2662 on: April 02, 2012, 07:43:07 PM »

i wouldn't back watson at augusta in a million years, he'll cave if he does get near the top on sunday anyway. Augusta lacks the bail out areas of other courses so when he gets in trouble it will be be big trouble.

Garrigus has a lot going for him, i wouldn't put you off him. His putting is not up to the job though, you might be left pissed off about too many 3 putts and 10 footers missed.

Its an interesting angle Ace, but the guy has won 3 events in the last 2 seasons, it is very hard to win events even when you are leading and he did fall away the other week when he had a good lead, he is deffo hot headed and wild at times but its a harsh on him imo given 3 wins in two years, not out of the top 20 all season and putting up very good stats too.
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« Reply #2663 on: April 02, 2012, 07:48:04 PM »


Here is the Keith Elliott card if anyone is interested.


THE US MASTERS - starts Thursday 
 
The Tournament - This is the first Major of the year, and is the only one always held at the same course. The winner receives a green jacket presented to him by the previous year’s winner in the Augusta log cabin.
 
 The Course - Augusta is now a 7,455 yard par 72 course that keeps evolving and in the last decade a second cut of rough has been added, fairways narrowed, and 450 yards added to its length. The Greens are lightning fast and provide a serious putting test.
 
 Qualities required - Keeping out of trouble here is vital and course experience is important. The par are the key to a good score - the Big hitters can take a risk and go for the greens in two while the shorter hitters can play safe, lay up with their second shot and give themselves a birdie chance with good wedge play.
 
 The three keys here are Accuracy, good course management and solid putting on these ultra fast greens.
 
The Field - A small field of 92 including the top 50 world ranked players, the specially invited Japanese teenager Ryo Ishikawa [to boost the TV audience], Amateur champions and past winners. The field includes 14 first timers.
 
 The market - Tiger heads the market from Mcilroy, Mickelson and World No 1 Luke Donald.
 
 Bookies - All are fully priced up and three make special offers.
 
* PP pay out on the first six places and win money back if Tiger wins.
* BO also pay out on the first six places.
* BS refund stakes if your selection finishes within 2 shots of the winner.
 
 
 ANTE POST BET
 
10th FEB - RORY McILROY - FIVE POINTS WIN - 8/1 BF/TO, LA, .
 
Rory has been our sole Ante Post bet.
 
Today 11 pts on 4 players at 13/2, 12/1, 18/1 + 33/1 and a half pt EW bet on an 80/1 outsider. Total 13 points.
 
 
  NO 1 PICK - RORY McILROY - THREE POINTS WIN - 6/1 BS, B365, LA, WH, SKY 11/2 PP, BF/TO, 5/1 CO, SPBET, LA, WH - only 9/21 88BET.
 
1. This year Rory is a more mature man with a new girlfriend and a new management company, he was briefly World No 1 Player and after a break he arrives at Augusta in top form.
 
 2. Last year here he played superbly for 3 rounds to lead by 3 shots before he imploded on Sunday with 80 in R4. However, he proved that he had learned from that experience when he went onto win the US Open unchallenged.
 
 3. This year he is a much improved player. In USA in three starts he was 2nd in the World Matchplay, he won the Honda Classic, and was 3rd in the WGC/Cadillac,
 
 4. His 2012 stats show the huge improvement in his short game as he is 3rd for Sand Saves, 1st for birdie conversion, and also 1st for scrambling, and he is still a player with a superb swing who has the extra length, the high ball flight, and the ability to draw [R-L] the ball that are all ideal for Augusta.
 
 IN SUM - Tiger’s revival has taken the spotlight off Rory who I expect to win this week, and at PP’s 11/2 with 6 places, and money back if Tiger wins he looks a rock solid EW bet.
 
 
  NO 2 PICK - LUKE DONALD - TWO POINTS EACH WAY - 18/1 BF, Tote; 16/1 PP, BS, LA, WH, B365, 14/1 GENERAL only 12/1 BS, CO.
 
1. Luke is in brilliant form. In his last two US starts he was 6th in the WGC/Cadillac and then won the Transitions knowing that if he did he’d become World No 1. His stroke average in those two events was 68.75
 
 2. He has a superb short game - he’s 2nd for scrambling, 1st strokes gained putting, and he’s got an accurate long game although he’s not a huge hitter he still finished with rounds of 68-69-69 last year when T4th. Not a long hitter but he is such a good wedge player and brilliant putter [1st for putts per GIR last year] that he can handle the par here well - indeed last year he had an eagle and was 9 under on the par .
 
 3. T3rd on his debut in 2005 he was T10th in 2007and T4th last year and he’s now built up a large bank of valuable Augusta experience.
 
 4. After a brilliant 2011 when he was top of the Money lists on both sides of the Atlantic, and after 5 wins in the last 15 months he’s clearly in the form of his life.
 
 IN SUM - Luke is consistency on stilts, he has all the tools to do the job and at 16/1 with 6 places he looks a crackin’ EW bet.
 
 
 

  NO 3 PICK - PHIL MICKELSON - TWO POINTS WIN - 12/1 BS, BV, LA, WH, SKY - only 9/1 BF/TO.
 
1. Phil in the last 11 years has had 8 top including 3 wins [2004, 2006 + 2010] he knows where he can put the ball, he can play amazing recovery shots, he has the length off the tee,and essentially when he ‘fails’ here it’s due to his putting.
 
 2. This season, despite not putting too well last week at Houston, he has putted really well shown by being 2nd for strokes gained through putting, and he’s 7th for birdie conversion.
 
 3. This season he won the AT+T and lost in a play off in the Nthn Trust Open and last week he was T4th.
 
 IN SUM - Inspired by Tiger’s revival, in form, a course specialist with improved putting this year he must be a very serious contender.
 
 
 
  JUSTIN ROSE - ONE POINT EACH WAY - 33/1 BO, BV, B365, CO, LA - only 25/1 SKY
 
1. Justin has won 4 times in USA since the start of 2010 incl the WGC/Cadillac last month since when he’s posted two top 15s.
 
 2. He’s 7th on the All Round stats, his scoring av. if 69.26, he’s 16th GIR, and his off season work on his short game has worked as he’s improved 60 places in the scrambling rankings, and his shots gained through putting is up 26 places.
 
 3. He clearly likes Augusta where in 6 starts he’s led 3 times after R1, once after R2, and he finished T5th in 2007. However, he’d never had the ‘bottle’ to really contend but after 4 wins in 27 months in the States, he’s proved he’s got greater mental strength.
 
 4. Being ’Under the radar’ with all the attention on Luke, Rory, Lee, Phil +Tiger will suit Justin.
 
 IN SUM - At 33/1 he looks a sound EW bet esp at BO.
 
 
  BRANDT SNEDEKER - HALF POINT EACH WAY - 80/ 1PP, BO, , SKY, BF/TO, SPBET - 66/1 CO, LA, BV.
 
1. Sneds has played at Augusta three times with 15th last year with 3 of his 4 round sunder par. and a 3rd on his 2008 debut when he was 2nd after R3 before shooting 77 in R4.
 
 2. He has won 3 times on the USPGA Tour with two wins in the last 12 months - last year in the Heritage,a nd this year in the Farmers Insurance Open when we backed him.
 
 IN SUM - He is a very good putter, a proven winner, he has solid Augusta form so at 80/1 he looks a sound EW bet.
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« Reply #2664 on: April 02, 2012, 07:50:36 PM »

Good luck on Blackburn

Man U have not conceded a goal on Monday night football for 764 minutes

time for that to change

Man U clean sheet at 11/8
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« Reply #2665 on: April 02, 2012, 08:17:24 PM »

Think i said this before elsewhere i would be amazed if rory or tiger don't win this. What price to back them both? Surely we get better than evens on one or the other?! Lump on!!!

around 2.4-1 mate. Fancy it myself gl

Specific market anywhere or just need to back both for same stake at best price?
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« Reply #2666 on: April 02, 2012, 08:33:23 PM »

Think i said this before elsewhere i would be amazed if rory or tiger don't win this. What price to back them both? Surely we get better than evens on one or the other?! Lump on!!!

around 2.4-1 mate. Fancy it myself gl

Specific market anywhere or just need to back both for same stake at best price?

Don't think it's a specific market just the Dutch price.
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« Reply #2667 on: April 02, 2012, 08:50:28 PM »

Sheesh, the first half of Blackburn - Man U was scary, real backs to the wall. Blackburn completely dominated the 46th minute, though.
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« Reply #2668 on: April 02, 2012, 08:53:31 PM »

Sheesh, the first half of Blackburn - Man U was scary, real backs to the wall. Blackburn completely dominated the 46th minute, though.

thankfully the scoreboard has no pictures.
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« Reply #2669 on: April 02, 2012, 09:56:03 PM »

Sheesh, the first half of Blackburn - Man U was scary, real backs to the wall. Blackburn completely dominated the 46th minute, though.

thankfully the scoreboard has no pictures.

It says 0-2 now!

Fair result, no complaints, could have gone the other way with a bit of run, think the bet was reasonable value.

UL Fraser.
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