Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I was looking for the quote for Kaep rushing yards this weekend. He got 180 last weekend and this weekend is on a faster track. No quotes yet

So I investigated another market that had been fermenting in my mind since the weekend. Field Goals

The Atlanta Kicker is Matt Bryant. the man who kicked a 49yd fg to get Atlanta through at the gasp on Sunday

This season he is 87% successful on 38 FGs. Over 11 seasons in the league he is an 84% kicker, witha  long of 62

The 49ers kicker is David Akers. Akers has had a down year, and indeed before the last game kickers were brought in to try out against him

This season he is 69% successful on 42FGs. Over 12 seasons he is an 81% kicker with a 63 yd long

If push comes to shove, the stats for this season indicate that Akers is slightly more likely to miss than Bryant

Conditions in a dome are irrelevant, so its technique and any confidence issues that will be crucial

---

Add to this

I think it is a strong possibility that Atlanta will attempt more FGs than the 49ers

- Atlanta are up against a top 3 49er defense that is more likely to stop Atlanta than the Atlanta defence is likely to stop the 49ers offense

- This, in essence, is why the board favours the 49ers to win on Sunday


So, put together the probability that Atlanta will have to kick field goals more with the slightly questionable form of the 49er kicker and you have, in my view, a likelihood that a field goal bet - who will kick the longest - will be the Falcons

Paddy Power price Atlanta as Evens, underdogs, in this market

For the factors above I think Atlanta should be favourites, something like 4/6

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-atlanta-falcons/to-score-longest-field-goal

Lots of good NFL minds on here - feel free to pick holes in this - but I think Evens is a really decent punt in this amrket

[tikay]

Big Bash, the cricket equivalent of CBB.

They are not even wearing spikes. Playing cricket in plimsolls ffs.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[kinboshi]

Leeds at 3.3 tonight?

Only thing I could remotely find.

 

Any chance you could change your avatar to Basil Rathbone, Camel? The definitive Sherlock Holmes (surely no comeback on that? No closet Jeremy Brett or Christopher Lee fans, right?)

Sorry, only just seen this -- couldn't let it pass.  Jeremy Brett was a brilliant Holmes, and the closest to Doyle's character (imo).

[tikay]

At first sight (not that I would know) I really love that recommend Rich.

However.....

Before Compliance Officer Doobs arrives, or GrammaticTal, did you just write.....


with a long of 62

A long of 62?

They teach you that at Nottingham Uni?

[The Camel]

I was looking for the quote for Kaep rushing yards this weekend. He got 180 last weekend and this weekend is on a faster track. No quotes yet

So I investigated another market that had been fermenting in my mind since the weekend. Field Goals

The Atlanta Kicker is Matt Bryant. the man who kicked a 49yd fg to get Atlanta through at the gasp on Sunday

This season he is 87% successful on 38 FGs. Over 11 seasons in the league he is an 84% kicker, witha  long of 62

The 49ers kicker is David Akers. Akers has had a down year, and indeed before the last game kickers were brought in to try out against him

This season he is 69% successful on 42FGs. Over 12 seasons he is an 81% kicker with a 63 yd long

If push comes to shove, the stats for this season indicate that Akers is slightly more likely to miss than Bryant

Conditions in a dome are irrelevant, so its technique and any confidence issues that will be crucial

---

Add to this

I think it is a strong possibility that Atlanta will attempt more FGs than the 49ers

- Atlanta are up against a top 3 49er defense that is more likely to stop Atlanta than the Atlanta defence is likely to stop the 49ers offense

- This, in essence, is why the board favours the 49ers to win on Sunday


So, put together the probability that Atlanta will have to kick field goals more with the slightly questionable form of the 49er kicker and you have, in my view, a likelihood that a field goal bet - who will kick the longest - will be the Falcons

Paddy Power price Atlanta as Evens, underdogs, in this market

For the factors above I think Atlanta should be favourites, something like 4/6

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-atlanta-falcons/to-score-longest-field-goal

Lots of good NFL minds on here - feel free to pick holes in this - but I think Evens is a really decent punt in this amrket

Absolutely agree.

I would go as far as to say this is a rick.

SF has been turning down the chance to take long FGs in recent weeks because is Harbaugh is wary of trusting Akers.

This is a very good bet imo.

As for the other thing, what is your opinion of Kaep rushing yards?

My gut feeling is Atlanta will do everything to stop the run and dare Kaep to throw at them.

How did that strategy work against Seattle?

Wilson threw for nearly 400 yards despite his team not turning up for the first half.

[tikay]

recency

a long

[TightEnd]

Kaep rushing yards

I wanted a quote of less than the 180 he got against Green Bay and I wanted the overs

Structurally, he'll rush for more on a carpet than cut up turf

No defense, yet, has shown any signs of stopping the read-option. That will come, but probably not in a week since the last play off game

If Atlanta "spy" Kaep and commit a lot of resources to stop him, Frank Gore will crush them

The SF OL is fantastic, best in football. Atlanta have to pick their running poison

Kaep should have a monster day, running

[tikay]

I was looking for the quote for Kaep rushing yards this weekend. He got 180 last weekend and this weekend is on a faster track. No quotes yet

So I investigated another market that had been fermenting in my mind since the weekend. Field Goals

The Atlanta Kicker is Matt Bryant. the man who kicked a 49yd fg to get Atlanta through at the gasp on Sunday

This season he is 87% successful on 38 FGs. Over 11 seasons in the league he is an 84% kicker, witha  long of 62

The 49ers kicker is David Akers. Akers has had a down year, and indeed before the last game kickers were brought in to try out against him

This season he is 69% successful on 42FGs. Over 12 seasons he is an 81% kicker with a 63 yd long

If push comes to shove, the stats for this season indicate that Akers is slightly more likely to miss than Bryant

Conditions in a dome are irrelevant, so its technique and any confidence issues that will be crucial

---

Add to this

I think it is a strong possibility that Atlanta will attempt more FGs than the 49ers

- Atlanta are up against a top 3 49er defense that is more likely to stop Atlanta than the Atlanta defence is likely to stop the 49ers offense

- This, in essence, is why the board favours the 49ers to win on Sunday


So, put together the probability that Atlanta will have to kick field goals more with the slightly questionable form of the 49er kicker and you have, in my view, a likelihood that a field goal bet - who will kick the longest - will be the Falcons

Paddy Power price Atlanta as Evens, underdogs, in this market

For the factors above I think Atlanta should be favourites, something like 4/6

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-atlanta-falcons/to-score-longest-field-goal

Lots of good NFL minds on here - feel free to pick holes in this - but I think Evens is a really decent punt in this amrket

Thanks Tighty, I decided to strike whilst the iron it hot.

Camel suggests a possible "rick", though comparing the other prices it is close enough not to be a palp, I think. I hope.

We have £50 @ Evens, Paddy Power, Altanta Falcons to have the longest Field Goal.

ON

NFL Matches San Francisco 49ers At Atlanta Falcons
20-01-2013 20:00
Team to have Longest Field Goal
Atlanta Falcons @ evens
 
Single: Atlanta Falcons @ evens
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
Potential returns: £100.00
No: O/23146337/0000242

 
Total stake: £50.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £50.00

[kinboshi]

At first sight (not that I would know) I really love that recommend Rich.

However.....

Before Compliance Officer Doobs arrives, or GrammaticTal, did you just write.....


with a long of 62

A long of 62?

They teach you that at Nottingham Uni?

Seems to be standard AF lingo:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q="a+long+of+63"

Similar to when people say they've 'finalled' two successive tournaments in poker parlance.

I'm still more upset with the term 'touchdown'.

[Graham C]

lol Big Bash being CBB

Was good fun though, those lighty up wickets are brilliant fun

[TightEnd]

At first sight (not that I would know) I really love that recommend Rich.

However.....

Before Compliance Officer Doobs arrives, or GrammaticTal, did you just write.....


with a long of 62

A long of 62?

They teach you that at Nottingham Uni?

Seems to be standard AF lingo:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q="a+long+of+63"

Similar to when people say they've 'finalled' two successive tournaments in poker parlance.

I'm still more upset with the term 'touchdown'.

yes

I can be a grammar bore to rival Tal, but generally keep such stuff hidden under my bushel, because once I start...

However "a long of" is standard American football terminology, and as we know grammar evolves around sustained usage.

[The Camel]

Kaep rushing yards

I wanted a quote of less than the 180 he got against Green Bay and I wanted the overs

Structurally, he'll rush for more on a carpet than cut up turf

No defense, yet, has shown any signs of stopping the read-option. That will come, but probably not in a week since the last play off game

If Atlanta "spy" Kaep and commit a lot of resources to stop him, Frank Gore will crush them

The SF OL is fantastic, best in football. Atlanta have to pick their running poison

Kaep should have a monster day, running

I was reading an interesting article.

Suggested the way to stop the read option was playing zone defense.

Linebackers let TEs and RBs have a free release from the line of scrimmage and stay close to the line of scrimmage.

In man coverage the LB turn their backs to the line of scrimmage and run with the TEs and RBs.

Green Bay were running an almost exclusive man coverage scheme and Kaepernick was running behind the backs of linebackers who never got their hands on him.

He had only 3 YAC!

Atlanta are one of only two teams who run zone as their base defense.

Wilson did have about 60 yards rushing, but 0 on read option plays. They were all traditional scrambles.

After seeing what Kaepernick did to Green Bay, I think the Falcons will absolutely do everything in their power to not let his legs beat them.

While I'm not saying he won't gain many yards, I think this + the fact bookmakers will be wary of another huge day (expecting punters to want to bet over) will mean the line will be high.

Off the top of my head, I would definitely play under if the line was about 80.

[TightEnd]

Interesting

note to check the Kaep passing yard quote!

[The Camel]

Interesting

note to check the Kaep passing yard quote!

Over 225 will be the play if available.

[Tal]

Leeds at 3.3 tonight?

Only thing I could remotely find.

 

Any chance you could change your avatar to Basil Rathbone, Camel? The definitive Sherlock Holmes (surely no comeback on that? No closet Jeremy Brett or Christopher Lee fans, right?)

Sorry, only just seen this -- couldn't let it pass.  Jeremy Brett was a brilliant Holmes, and the closest to Doyle's character (imo).

This is where I do my Derren Brown impression and reveal an envelope, within which there is a card. The card is shown to the camera and reads: Only Kinboshi will disagree



I bet you think George Lazenby was the best Bond as well.

You'll be be telling us next that you prefer Roast Beef Monster Munch.

Maybe Richard Orford is your favourite Sky Poker presenter?