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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 9525092 times)
tikay
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« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2012, 12:23:59 PM »

redarmi is advocating the efficacy of "dirty e/w" accumulators, rather than accumulators per se

Bookies would hate tips for tikay doing reasonably informed e/w lucky 15s with prices at 3-1, 7/2 etc

they'd love tips for tikay doing bus driver accumulators


there is a difference

Ooh, "dirty"?

So am I staging a sort of mini-betting coup, then?

How exciting, but ffs, don't tell Tom.
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The Camel
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« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2012, 12:25:04 PM »

You HAVE to take the price recommended.

That's the whole point about not being a mug punter!

It takes 2 minutes to open and fund a betting account, how difficult can it be?

+ if you haven't got all the accounts you will get some great opening bonuses which we can add to the fund!

bwin is only a tenner mind, but paddy power and bet365 is £200!
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« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2012, 12:26:23 PM »

redarmi is advocating the efficacy of "dirty e/w" accumulators, rather than accumulators per se

Bookies would hate tips for tikay doing reasonably informed e/w lucky 15s with prices at 3-1, 7/2 etc

they'd love tips for tikay doing bus driver accumulators


there is a difference

Red is right, so ditch the singles and make it a yankee...just my opinion for what its worth
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The Camel
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« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2012, 12:27:47 PM »

Lucky 15's are 1000 times better than yankees, the double odds about 1 winner is a great offer.

Redarmi's bet is great.

Get it on.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
tikay
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« Reply #34 on: January 26, 2012, 12:28:09 PM »

You HAVE to take the price recommended.

That's the whole point about not being a mug punter!

It takes 2 minutes to open and fund a betting account, how difficult can it be?

+ if you haven't got all the accounts you will get some great opening bonuses which we can add to the fund!

bwin is only a tenner mind, but paddy power and bet365 is £200!

Groan, in trouble already.

First things first, Keith - have you approved today's suggestion from redarmi?

If so, I'll get started.
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« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2012, 12:29:12 PM »

You HAVE to take the price recommended.

That's the whole point about not being a mug punter!

It takes 2 minutes to open and fund a betting account, how difficult can it be?

+ if you haven't got all the accounts you will get some great opening bonuses which we can add to the fund!

bwin is only a tenner mind, but paddy power and bet365 is £200!

He's hardly going to be starring in a thread that advocates betting on other bookies when he works for Skybet, is he?
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tikay
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« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2012, 12:29:13 PM »

Lucky 15's are 1000 times better than yankees, the double odds about 1 winner is a great offer.

Redarmi's bet is great.

Get it on.

On my way Sir!

How exciting!
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« Reply #37 on: January 26, 2012, 12:30:52 PM »

Now the tough part....
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The Camel
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« Reply #38 on: January 26, 2012, 12:34:42 PM »

You HAVE to take the price recommended.

That's the whole point about not being a mug punter!

It takes 2 minutes to open and fund a betting account, how difficult can it be?

+ if you haven't got all the accounts you will get some great opening bonuses which we can add to the fund!

bwin is only a tenner mind, but paddy power and bet365 is £200!

He's hardly going to be starring in a thread that advocates betting on other bookies when he works for Skybet, is he?

Brrr. It's a free market. Tikay having £40 on a 5/8 shot is hardly going to dent skybets profits.

It is good advertising for the betting industry in general.

Everyone's a winner.
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« Reply #39 on: January 26, 2012, 12:35:06 PM »

had 4 units (max5) on a greyhound called ballytime molly in the 9.32 at henlow. Race available to watch on sky and on racingpost greyhound tv. at 3/1  i had it chalked up @ 7/4 so i feel its way overpriced. It has good form over 6 bends, the 6 dog looks like it will stay the 6 bends but has no form other than staying on over 4 bends, and they chalked it up at 6/4. I reckon have a £50 @ 3/1 bet365
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adnmdv
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« Reply #40 on: January 26, 2012, 12:36:37 PM »

redarmi is advocating the efficacy of "dirty e/w" accumulators, rather than accumulators per se

Bookies would hate tips for tikay doing reasonably informed e/w lucky 15s with prices at 3-1, 7/2 etc

they'd love tips for tikay doing bus driver accumulators


there is a difference

Red is right, so ditch the singles and make it a yankee...just my opinion for what its worth

What's the justification here in terms of getting more EV+ out of it, bar 'your opinion', because your opinion doesn't stack up to the maths here imo.
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tikay
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« Reply #41 on: January 26, 2012, 12:38:19 PM »


Umm, do SkyBet do a "Lucky15"?

Guess I could ask them, but it'd be a bit embarrassing for me to ask.....
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« Reply #42 on: January 26, 2012, 12:39:19 PM »

Pretty sure all books do L15s, you presumably just need to add 4+ selections to your betting slip and then the option will become available.
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Laxie
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« Reply #43 on: January 26, 2012, 12:39:34 PM »


Umm, do SkyBet do a "Lucky15"?

Guess I could ask them, but it'd be a bit embarrassing for me to ask.....

 

This is great.  Really enjoying it!
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« Reply #44 on: January 26, 2012, 12:39:47 PM »

Can the selection be a multiple bet that will educate our hero on the importance place value and each way betting being a bit like position in poker?.....very powerful when used correctly.

If so I would like to suggest the following e/w Lucky 15 on todays racing:

325 Warwick Romulaid S'artaix 7/2
535 Kempton Ashdown Boy SP
735 Kempton Cut The Cackle 7/2
515 Meydan Rajsaman 6/1

Prices taken from the, ahem, esteemed Skybet and stake to be 1 unit e/w lucky 15

Umm, wtf is a "Lucky 15"?

4 horses used to be a yankee (11 bets, being 6 x dubs, 4 x trebs, & 1 x acca), presumably a "Lucky 15" (yuk) is a yankee + 4 singles?

You are not REALLY gonna make me start punting trebles & accas, surely to God? The bookies will love me!

I think, also (grasping at straws) that Camel has to approve all bets first, too.

Wink

Oh, & thank you.


If you start punting multiples like this, the exact opposite will be true.

Sorry, you have whooshed me there.

AFAIC, accas & the like are the LAST thing I would ever do - but the spirit iof this thing is I accept advice from the experts. bookies LOVE punters doing accas!

A 'bad' or 'dirty' each-way bet is one where, due to the specific shape of the race and the 'one size fits all' approach bookmakers have to place terms (to simplify things for punters), an each-way bet on the 'right' selection can actually see the punter achieve a positive longterm expectation.

For example, in an 8-runner race they bet as follows:

4/7
4/1
10/1
16/1
20/1
20/1
33/1
33/1

The traditional ew place terms here are 3 places paid, at 1/5th the odds. If you back the second in each way at 4/1, you get 4/5 about the horse to place. As 3/8 place, and half the field are essentially 'no hopers', the truer price of your selection placing may actually be closer to 1/2.

Your win part of the bet will likely have a slight negative expectation, hopefully more than balanced out by the +EV of your place bet.


Now...generally bookies love multiples as their +ve expectation multiplies up.

What happens when you as the punter are +EV is that your positive expectation multiplies up.

So, theoretically, if you can find multiple selections where you are +EV, and stake accordingly to your bankroll, you should actually double and treble things up when the situation necessitates it.


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Allez!!
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