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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 9525208 times)
tikay
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« Reply #60 on: January 26, 2012, 01:48:35 PM »

Keith, the Oscars Bet with BWin - I'll do that tonight, I need to open the Account first, but I assume it is not time precious.

Anyway, we'll be rich by tonight, once that dirty bet has come in.

Home & hosed.

Open a bet365 account too and deposit £200, they give you £200 free gambling money to play with!

Jeez, you want me to bet with ordinary bookmakers now......
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« Reply #61 on: January 26, 2012, 01:49:21 PM »

Some good quality posting in this thread so far already.
 
Ed saved me a long post defending my bet.  I think all of them have a decent chance of winning their races and are positive expectation in their own right.  That is a subjective view.  The place element however is pretty much an objective view.  8 runner races were effectively designed wrong when bookie first came up with their ew terms.  8 runner races and 16/17 runner handicaps shouldn't be a fifth the odds the first three and a quarter the odds the first four effectively and multiplying them multiplies that advantage.Simple calculation really:

If you are getting 11/10 about an even money shot then you have a positive expectation of 50%*2.1= a positive expectation of 1.05 ie you win 5p for every £ you put on.  If you multiply the two bets together you have a 25% chance of winning (50*50%) and you get paid at odds on 4.41 (2.1*2.1) so our expectation is 25%*4.41 = 110.25 so we win 10.25p for every pound we put on.  The second bet is clearly better than the first one.  It also increases your variance of course but you are getting paid betrer for doing it.

This idea that multiples are bad bets for advantage punters is the biggest myth bandied about by punters that don't really understand the maths of gambling and to be honest it is the most important aspect of the game.  It is so much easier to teach a novice that understand maths and stats but nothing about sport to become a winning punter that the other way around.
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tikay
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« Reply #62 on: January 26, 2012, 01:52:51 PM »

Some good quality posting in this thread so far already.
 
Ed saved me a long post defending my bet.  I think all of them have a decent chance of winning their races and are positive expectation in their own right.  That is a subjective view.  The place element however is pretty much an objective view.  8 runner races were effectively designed wrong when bookie first came up with their ew terms.  8 runner races and 16/17 runner handicaps shouldn't be a fifth the odds the first three and a quarter the odds the first four effectively and multiplying them multiplies that advantage.Simple calculation really:

If you are getting 11/10 about an even money shot then you have a positive expectation of 50%*2.1= a positive expectation of 1.05 ie you win 5p for every £ you put on.  If you multiply the two bets together you have a 25% chance of winning (50*50%) and you get paid at odds on 4.41 (2.1*2.1) so our expectation is 25%*4.41 = 110.25 so we win 10.25p for every pound we put on.  The second bet is clearly better than the first one.  It also increases your variance of course but you are getting paid betrer for doing it.

This idea that multiples are bad bets for advantage punters is the biggest myth bandied about by punters that don't really understand the maths of gambling and to be honest it is the most important aspect of the game.  It is so much easier to teach a novice that understand maths and stats but nothing about sport to become a winning punter that the other way around.

Thanks, & thanks to Ed, too.

I hope you realise that I'm using the monies in my poker account to fund this. I've never withdrawn, or touched it, previously. Today's £30 investment took me 5 weeks to grind @ Omaha.
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« Reply #63 on: January 26, 2012, 02:10:30 PM »

i would just like to defend lucky 15's for the small punter like me and my dad our £3 20p unit stake bets are our shot at a nice payout without the huge bet. Thanks to a few nice threads on here we both won some huge (well for us) wins on them, ranman providing a nice 1.5k bink a few months ago Smiley
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tikay
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« Reply #64 on: January 26, 2012, 02:12:24 PM »


Bugger. Tom's in the thread. Deny everything, OK?
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« Reply #65 on: January 26, 2012, 02:23:03 PM »

Sigh....

Hang your head in shame Kendall.  All those years preaching the Gospel,  and now your street-cred is in tatters.

What next? I ask myself.  DUI? STD? Both?.

Keep this up, and before long Sky will have it's very own Angus Deyton.
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tikay
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« Reply #66 on: January 26, 2012, 02:25:18 PM »


I agree with Tom - you should all hang your heads in shame.
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« Reply #67 on: January 26, 2012, 02:25:57 PM »

Sigh....

Hang your head in shame Kendall.  All those years preaching the Gospel,  and now your street-cred is in tatters.

What next? I ask myself.  DUI? STD? Both?.

Keep this up, and before long Sky will have it's very own Angus Deyton.


From a £1 eachway Lucky 15 to a gang bang with 4 prostitutes.

That's quite a leap!
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« Reply #68 on: January 26, 2012, 02:26:37 PM »

Sigh....

Hang your head in shame Kendall.  All those years preaching the Gospel,  and now your street-cred is in tatters.

What next? I ask myself.  DUI? STD? Both?.

Keep this up, and before long Sky will have it's very own Angus Deyton.


From a £1 eachway Lucky 15 to a gang bang with 4 prostitutes.

That's quite a leap!

degens gonna degen
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« Reply #69 on: January 26, 2012, 02:27:07 PM »

Well you would need all 4 to win to start..
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tikay
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« Reply #70 on: January 26, 2012, 02:27:14 PM »

Sigh....

Hang your head in shame Kendall.  All those years preaching the Gospel,  and now your street-cred is in tatters.

What next? I ask myself.  DUI? STD? Both?.

Keep this up, and before long Sky will have it's very own Angus Deyton.


From a £1 eachway Lucky 15 to a gang bang with 4 prostitutes.

That's quite a leap!

Don't forget the DUI - that'll be from the celebratory champagne presumably?
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The Camel
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« Reply #71 on: January 26, 2012, 02:27:46 PM »

Sigh....

Hang your head in shame Kendall.  All those years preaching the Gospel,  and now your street-cred is in tatters.

What next? I ask myself.  DUI? STD? Both?.

Keep this up, and before long Sky will have it's very own Angus Deyton.


From a £1 eachway Lucky 15 to a gang bang with 4 prostitutes.

That's quite a leap!

degens gonna degen

Forgot about the snorting charlie out of the ladies belly buttons.

Why have I never been to one of Tikay's parties?
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« Reply #72 on: January 26, 2012, 02:28:38 PM »

I am officially the biggest mug punter in the tread.  I put a win lucky 15 on in error.  Of course if they all win it was deliberate
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #73 on: January 26, 2012, 02:29:19 PM »

I am officially the biggest mug punter in the tread.  I put a win lucky 15 on in error.  Of course if they all win it was deliberate

Have you shadowed MY bet?

Tsk, trying to nick my market......

PS - Correction - you are the SECOND biggest mug in the thread. I can't believe I am doing this.
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The Camel
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« Reply #74 on: January 26, 2012, 02:41:53 PM »

There's a horse running in the 2.55 at Warwick which aptly descibes what Tikay is currently on.
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"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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