Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Just woken to find Van Zyl leader by 1 in Scottish links type conditions in SA. Few holes to go, but if he can scramble home in these conditions will be the ideal start.

Great start!

He may have got the worst of the weather, & the late starters may benefit, but we are up & running nicely.

The LeaderBoard, updated in real time, is here......


http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2013/tournamentid=2013013/leaderboard/index.html

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1050, Thursday February 14th

PROFIT on Month = £584.15

Unsettled Bets  - £840.00



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=19

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 1100, Thursday February 14th

We made another small profit - just - yesterday, a whole £7.15 was added to the balance.

We bet two horses, one cricket, one football & one snooker. 

One of the horses - Masai Moon - finished 2nd, but there was a Rule 4. We invested £20 on that, & got back £19.15, so not so bad really.

Our Football DNB ended up as a push, so no damage done.

Our sole outright winner was Milkins in the Snooker (+£33), so once again Tighty did the business, he really is on fire right now. We have so many good judges here now, that they balance each other nicely, when one is in form it pays for the others.

We eventually ended up swerving the "Free Bet" on the Real - Man U affair, this was my fault, & a bit daft, but there were so many different options put up, & my head was spinning with non-blonde stuff yesterday,  & I was just not getting the right vibes or time to sort the bet out. Never mind, we had another non-losing day, & we are ticking along very nicely. 

We are doing a lot more bets of late - mostly small, & it seems to be working at the moment, though the longer view is more important.

Mere is still having technical problems with internet access, so I'm doing the Spready myself at the moment, & I can't tell you how much I miss his help. Probably a good idea if you check the Spready for Omissions & Errors. I have been known to make the very occasional mis-click.

[tikay]

We have some stuff for today, which I will detail shortly, & tonight is Premier League Darts, when we often get busy.

So, please note I am working tonight, so cannot action ANY Bets after 6pm. 

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Yesterday was fun, your reporting on Mr Marsh made it seem like I lost twice. I think you should get your stake returned for run outs as they are so horrible when you have backed someone for top batter.

You had a recommend for the Doctor to be top Asian in the golf later. My knowledge of golf is teeny tiny compared to that of rugby but here it is. The Doctor has not found the consistency that he had last year. He is scoring birdies but dropping silly shots. I think he has only had 2 good rounds this year and neither were in the crucial final round. It may be due to the fact that he changed his clubs. However we also know from last year that he does tend to play better after a couple of tournaments. So as he has stopped crossing the Atlantic to play and has played in the US last week he may be a decent bet to beat the Asians.

I think 9-2 is the biggest we have ever seen him in this market so I would say dabble away.

I have been looking at the market for the Captain of the British Lions and I have a question for you. Although you may prefer to leave it to his Tightiness. Where in the rankings for open side flanker would you place Chris Robshaw ?

[tikay]

Tonight, we have a tidy-size Darts Bet.

We have £55 @ 10/11, Hamilton MOST 180's V Wade. I'm very optimistic of this one.

We also have some golf action.

We are on Jaco Van Zyl in the Africa Open. He is currently leading, after 14 holes, but play has been suspended due to severe weather. A lot of players had not begun their round, so I've no idea how we stand, really, but I fear the weather may have worked against us.

We also have a Crazy Banzai on the American Golf, Cameron Tringale, a fiver EW @ a whopping 150/1. This will be on Sky Sports this evening. 

[TightEnd]

I have been looking at the market for the Captain of the British Lions and I have a question for you. Although you may prefer to leave it to his Tightiness. Where in the rankings for open side flanker would you place Chris Robshaw ?

Hector, I love you

I did 45 minutes research last night on this very market!


Brian O'Driscoll
Jamie Heaslip
Sam Warburton
Chris Robshaw

Are I think the consensus four candidates

Warburton was the strong favourite, but has lost form and now his place
Heaslip is probably the Test Number 8, but not much sign of top captaincy from him yet

BOD is a test certainty, I think, which is important as the captain needs to get in the side. Its his last hurrah too. I had him as favourite

Robshaw might lead England to the 6N and the Grand Slam. However Gatland is the coach. He is suggested, and recent comments imply, some English Xenophobia

In addition is Robshaw the Test No 6 or 7?

Wood, O'Brien, Ferris, Lydiate, Croft were 5 I immediately thought that would get in ahead of him, even though his contributions are widely underrated

I sort of had in mind Robshaw would be the midweek team captain

So I ranked them, currently

1 BOD
2 Robshaw
3 Heaslip
4 Warburton

I then went to look at the current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/british-and-irish-lions-tour/to-be-named-captain


and thought O'Driscoll was better value at 2-1 than Robshaw is at Evens

If England win the Slam though, difficult not to name Robshaw I suppose.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Yesterday was fun, your reporting on Mr Marsh made it seem like I lost twice. I think you should get your stake returned for run outs as they are so horrible when you have backed someone for top batter.

You had a recommend for the Doctor to be top Asian in the golf later. My knowledge of golf is teeny tiny compared to that of rugby but here it is. The Doctor has not found the consistency that he had last year. He is scoring birdies but dropping silly shots. I think he has only had 2 good rounds this year and neither were in the crucial final round. It may be due to the fact that he changed his clubs. However we also know from last year that he does tend to play better after a couple of tournaments. So as he has stopped crossing the Atlantic to play and has played in the US last week he may be a decent bet to beat the Asians.

I think 9-2 is the biggest we have ever seen him in this market so I would say dabble away.

I have been looking at the market for the Captain of the British Lions and I have a question for you. Although you may prefer to leave it to his Tightiness. Where in the rankings for open side flanker would you place Chris Robshaw ?

Morning hector.

Yup, I made a pigs ear of the Marsh bet, but it would have been pretty neat if he had won. The run-out was, in poker terms, sick

Chris Robshaw? Umm, pass, I'd best leave that to His Tightness. My personal knowledge of Rugby Unon extends only to James Haskell, & that only because I had the pleasure of working with him recently.

Dr Noh? Excellent, I was hoping you would endorse that, as we have had so much fun with Dr Noh. I think it was "crown" who mentioned Dr Noh yesterday, but I'll look it out & don my dabbling boots. They are similar to Dorothy Pagets betting boots, but somewhat smaller.

Have you enjoyed 6 Nations so far? How do you see our bets now? Grim to grimmer, or is there a shaft of hope? Must be said, they have made wonderful viewing for the non-expert like me.

[tikay]

I have been looking at the market for the Captain of the British Lions and I have a question for you. Although you may prefer to leave it to his Tightiness. Where in the rankings for open side flanker would you place Chris Robshaw ?

Hector, I love you

I did 45 minutes research last night on this very market!


Brian O'Driscoll
Jamie Heaslip
Sam Warburton
Chris Robshaw

Are I think the consensus four candidates

Warburton was the strong favourite, but has lost form and now his place
Heaslip is probably the Test Number 8, but not much sign of top captaincy from him yet

BOD is a test certainty, I think, which is important as the captain needs to get in the side. Its his last hurrah too. I had him as favourite

Robshaw might lead England to the 6N and the Grand Slam. However Gatland is the coach. He is suggested, and recent comments imply, some English Xenophobia

In addition is Robshaw the Test No 6 or 7?

Wood, O'Brien, Ferris, Lydiate, Croft were 5 I immediately thought that would get in ahead of him, even though his contributions are widely underrated

I sort of had in mind Robshaw would be the midweek team captain

So I ranked them, currently

1 BOD
2 Robshaw
3 Heaslip
4 Warburton

I then went to look at the current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/british-and-irish-lions-tour/to-be-named-captain


and thought O'Driscoll was better value at 2-1 than Robshaw is at Evens

If England win the Slam though, difficult not to name Robshaw I suppose.

Ha!

Great tease by hector, & a wonderful analysis by His Tightiness.

Not sure why, but I marginally seem to think BOD may get it, as a sort of last hooray.

Presumably, no clear bet at this stage? Guess we could structure the stakes to bet both, but that would be a bit thin.

Happy to go with what you & our other Rugby sorts think. This is the type of situation where Doobsy generally finds us some clear mathematical logic.

[TightEnd]

I didn't have any recommendation in mind at this stage, to be frank. We're two games into the 6N and if you know what Gatland is thinking (he doesn't) then you are a better man than I am

Hector, what are you thinking?

[hector62]

I have many thoughts on the Captaincy. I have Robshaw behind Tipuric, Henry, and O'Brien as open side so I can't see him in the Test side. My idea for captain is so far in left field that he is not even quoted a price by anyone, that I am wondering if he stated that he wouldn't tour. I have this idea that a tour captain will be chosen and that a test captain will be named when the the team is named. So my left field idea is ? Bearing in mind that a preference is for previous tourists, big blokes and non English ........

[TightEnd]

Paul O'Connell?

[hector62]

The other option. The one I played Rugby Netball with - Ryan Jones.

As I said, way out in left field.

[TightEnd]

Sorry, another one

Judd Trump v Andrew Higginson in the Welsh Open starting at 2pm

Trump scraped past Dominic Dale yesterday, was 3-1 down and won 4-3

He looked impatient most of the game and his long potting was all over the place

We know (indeed we talked about it) that he struggles to get motivated outside the really big arenas

Higginson is a top 32 player. Not had the best of seasons but solid generally.


He is priced at 11/4 to win this, another 7 frame game

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/judd-trump-v-andrew-higginson/winner

If you want final frame insurance, Bet Victor are 5/2


The randomising nature of short matches, plus Trump's somewhat questionable temperament and form, means 11/4 is over-priced

Because Higginson is not the form horse that Milkins is, its a lower sized recommendation

£15 Higginson to beat Trump at 11/4 BSQ or 5/2 Bet Victor with the 4-3 insurance

[TightEnd]

The other option. The one I played Rugby Netball with - Ryan Jones.

As I said, way out in left field.

Interesting. If they beat England final game that could be a very live shout.

You think he's a tour captain, rather than a test captain?

out of interest what is your idea of a lions 15?