Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

A couple of suggestions for our match at Franchise FC tomorrow.

I've been looking at the Barnsley win price all week at around 2/1, as it's a little surprising to see the lower division team as the favourite given our recent form.  However, I think the match odds look about right, and reflect the fact that we're not that far apart in overall league positions and that Franchise have disposed of Sheff Wed and QPR so far.  The Barnsley price was a little bigger earlier in the week so has presumably tempted a few but it's a no-play for me, even with the rose-tinted specs on.

However, there are a couple of spots I do like:

Jason Scotland LAST Goalscorer at 15/2 with BetVictor and a couple of others.

As far as I can see, first and last goalscorer markets are identical.  This is specifically a recommendation for the last goalscorer market as Scotland has been used as a 2nd half substitute since signing for us and has scored in each of his 3 games.  He's looked sharp on each occasion and looks to be a threat each time he gets the ball.  In each game he's played so far he's been the last goalscorer on each occasion, and I see no reason why we'd change the recent game plan of starting Harewood and Dagnall and bringing Scotland on in the second half against tiring legs (he himself said as much in his post-match interview at Boro).  With this being a cup-tie there's a decent chance he gets a slightly longer run-out if we're behind and chasing the game in the second half.  Based on the circumstances, I think he should be shorter than the general price being offered around him.  For info, BV make Chris O'Grady a shorter price at 7/1, and he's cup-tied, so it's not exactly a well researched market.


I also think BV are out of line on the Corner Supremacy for the game, and that Barnsley are value here at 11/5.  I like this spot much more than the general match odds, and BV are somewhat out of line with the other firms here (Hills are shortest at 11/8).  Again, it's not hard to envisage a team being behind and chasing the game in the second half and forcing a few corners.  The match odds suggest it's more likely to be us doing so and I don't think there's necessarily such a correlation between the end result and the corners market so even in a losing effort I could see us wining the corners stats, certainly to the extent that the 3/5 price for MK looks way too short.  (NB: QPR won the corners 11-1 when losing 4-2 to them in the last round, albeit this was Premier League team at home and 4-0 down at one point so not obviously comparable, but it demonstrates the general point I'm trying to make).

Perhaps I'm being a bit of an ice-cream here, in which case I'll no doubt get told so, but I like both spots and suggest:

£10 Jason Scotland, LAST Goalscorer 15/2 BetVictor
£20 Barnsley Most Corners, 11/5 BetVictor

Thanks Curtis.

As I noted last night, I got on the Corners bet as below.

I need some help from others on the LAST goalscorer bet, as I cannot assess the value. Not sure we have ever got one of these home, & I'm not mad keen on them personally, but I'll listen to & heed the advice of the experts.

We have £20 @ 11/5, BetVictor, MK Dons v Barnsley, BARNSLEY MOST CORNERS.

ON

Betid 30191562600 Time: 23:56 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 20.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
MK Dons v Barnsley ENG FA Cup
Most Team Corners - 90 Mins
 Barnsley  11/5  Win only  Unsettled 

[Sheriff Fatman]

A couple of suggestions for our match at Franchise FC tomorrow.

I've been looking at the Barnsley win price all week at around 2/1, as it's a little surprising to see the lower division team as the favourite given our recent form.  However, I think the match odds look about right, and reflect the fact that we're not that far apart in overall league positions and that Franchise have disposed of Sheff Wed and QPR so far.  The Barnsley price was a little bigger earlier in the week so has presumably tempted a few but it's a no-play for me, even with the rose-tinted specs on.

However, there are a couple of spots I do like:

Jason Scotland LAST Goalscorer at 15/2 with BetVictor and a couple of others.

As far as I can see, first and last goalscorer markets are identical.  This is specifically a recommendation for the last goalscorer market as Scotland has been used as a 2nd half substitute since signing for us and has scored in each of his 3 games.  He's looked sharp on each occasion and looks to be a threat each time he gets the ball.  In each game he's played so far he's been the last goalscorer on each occasion, and I see no reason why we'd change the recent game plan of starting Harewood and Dagnall and bringing Scotland on in the second half against tiring legs (he himself said as much in his post-match interview at Boro).  With this being a cup-tie there's a decent chance he gets a slightly longer run-out if we're behind and chasing the game in the second half.  Based on the circumstances, I think he should be shorter than the general price being offered around him.  For info, BV make Chris O'Grady a shorter price at 7/1, and he's cup-tied, so it's not exactly a well researched market.


I also think BV are out of line on the Corner Supremacy for the game, and that Barnsley are value here at 11/5.  I like this spot much more than the general match odds, and BV are somewhat out of line with the other firms here (Hills are shortest at 11/8).  Again, it's not hard to envisage a team being behind and chasing the game in the second half and forcing a few corners.  The match odds suggest it's more likely to be us doing so and I don't think there's necessarily such a correlation between the end result and the corners market so even in a losing effort I could see us wining the corners stats, certainly to the extent that the 3/5 price for MK looks way too short.  (NB: QPR won the corners 11-1 when losing 4-2 to them in the last round, albeit this was Premier League team at home and 4-0 down at one point so not obviously comparable, but it demonstrates the general point I'm trying to make).

Perhaps I'm being a bit of an ice-cream here, in which case I'll no doubt get told so, but I like both spots and suggest:

£10 Jason Scotland, LAST Goalscorer 15/2 BetVictor
£20 Barnsley Most Corners, 11/5 BetVictor

Thanks Curtis.

As I noted last night, I got on the Corners bet as below.

I need some help from others on the LAST goalscorer bet, as I cannot assess the value. Not sure we have ever got one of these home, & I'm not mad keen on them personally, but I'll listen to & heed the advice of the experts.

We have £20 @ 11/5, BetVictor, MK Dons v Barnsley, BARNSLEY MOST CORNERS.

ON

Betid 30191562600 Time: 23:56 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 20.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
MK Dons v Barnsley ENG FA Cup
Most Team Corners - 90 Mins
 Barnsley  11/5  Win only  Unsettled 

I was trying to think of a way to quantify it last night when writing the post, but it's difficult for us mere mortals.  In the absence of a bobby1, redarmi, Camel, etc insight this is the best I can do:

It's a very generally priced market, including a player who is ineligible among the favourites, and there are a specific set of cirumstances around our man which, to me, would make him the favourite in this market.  Taking the shortest price (McLeod) that would be 6/1, so my guess is that Scotland specifically should be 5/1.

So it depends whether 15/2 on a 5/1 (or a 6/1) shot is enough value for you to want to make the punt.

[tikay]

Thanks Curtis.

If those numbers are correct - & I'm sure they are - then we ought to get on.

[Tal]

Probably not the place for this, but what the heck.

Any thoughts on the Ascot Chase today? I'm a Cue Card fan and think 2m5 is a much better distance. 5/2 is not exactly mouth-watering tho against this field. Interested in thoughts.

[tikay]

Probably not the place for this, but what the heck.

Any thoughts on the Ascot Chase today? I'm a Cue Card fan and think 2m5 is a much better distance. 5/2 is not exactly mouth-watering tho against this field. Interested in thoughts.

For selfish reasons, Fred is rather hoping that Captain Chris gives a good account of himself, as we have punted him for the Gold Cup.

No idea about today's race though. The market is here, if anyone has a view.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ascot/15:50/winner

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

After my discussion on here yesterday with his Tightiness I have just seen that 2 firms are now pricing up Ryan Jones to be the Lions captain so it looks like Corals and Ladbrokes are perusing your most excellent thread. He is priced at 25-1 but not a recommend yet.

Morning h.

Are we still dithering & musing about this?

Currently best priced at 25/1.



http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/british-and-irish-lions-tour/to-be-named-captain

[BigAdz]

Probably not the place for this, but what the heck.

Any thoughts on the Ascot Chase today? I'm a Cue Card fan and think 2m5 is a much better distance. 5/2 is not exactly mouth-watering tho against this field. Interested in thoughts.

For selfish reasons, Fred is rather hoping that Captain Chris gives a good account of himself, as we have punted him for the Gold Cup.

No idea about today's race though. The market is here, if anyone has a view.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ascot/15:50/winner

This close to Chelts a defo no bet race for me. If CC is to win a GC I would be happy to see hime jump round and stay on at the end. Wouldnt put anyone off Cue Card, but Tizzard on ML stating prime objectives are the 3 big festivals fwiw. Pays your money

[adnmdv]

A couple of suggestions for our match at Franchise FC tomorrow.

I've been looking at the Barnsley win price all week at around 2/1, as it's a little surprising to see the lower division team as the favourite given our recent form.  However, I think the match odds look about right, and reflect the fact that we're not that far apart in overall league positions and that Franchise have disposed of Sheff Wed and QPR so far.  The Barnsley price was a little bigger earlier in the week so has presumably tempted a few but it's a no-play for me, even with the rose-tinted specs on.

However, there are a couple of spots I do like:

Jason Scotland LAST Goalscorer at 15/2 with BetVictor and a couple of others.

As far as I can see, first and last goalscorer markets are identical.  This is specifically a recommendation for the last goalscorer market as Scotland has been used as a 2nd half substitute since signing for us and has scored in each of his 3 games.  He's looked sharp on each occasion and looks to be a threat each time he gets the ball.  In each game he's played so far he's been the last goalscorer on each occasion, and I see no reason why we'd change the recent game plan of starting Harewood and Dagnall and bringing Scotland on in the second half against tiring legs (he himself said as much in his post-match interview at Boro).  With this being a cup-tie there's a decent chance he gets a slightly longer run-out if we're behind and chasing the game in the second half.  Based on the circumstances, I think he should be shorter than the general price being offered around him.  For info, BV make Chris O'Grady a shorter price at 7/1, and he's cup-tied, so it's not exactly a well researched market.


I also think BV are out of line on the Corner Supremacy for the game, and that Barnsley are value here at 11/5.  I like this spot much more than the general match odds, and BV are somewhat out of line with the other firms here (Hills are shortest at 11/8).  Again, it's not hard to envisage a team being behind and chasing the game in the second half and forcing a few corners.  The match odds suggest it's more likely to be us doing so and I don't think there's necessarily such a correlation between the end result and the corners market so even in a losing effort I could see us wining the corners stats, certainly to the extent that the 3/5 price for MK looks way too short.  (NB: QPR won the corners 11-1 when losing 4-2 to them in the last round, albeit this was Premier League team at home and 4-0 down at one point so not obviously comparable, but it demonstrates the general point I'm trying to make).

Perhaps I'm being a bit of an ice-cream here, in which case I'll no doubt get told so, but I like both spots and suggest:

£10 Jason Scotland, LAST Goalscorer 15/2 BetVictor
£20 Barnsley Most Corners, 11/5 BetVictor

Thanks Curtis.

As I noted last night, I got on the Corners bet as below.

I need some help from others on the LAST goalscorer bet, as I cannot assess the value. Not sure we have ever got one of these home, & I'm not mad keen on them personally, but I'll listen to & heed the advice of the experts.

We have £20 @ 11/5, BetVictor, MK Dons v Barnsley, BARNSLEY MOST CORNERS.

ON

Betid 30191562600 Time: 23:56 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 20.00  
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS  
MK Dons v Barnsley ENG FA Cup
Most Team Corners - 90 Mins
 Barnsley  11/5  Win only  Unsettled  

I was trying to think of a way to quantify it last night when writing the post, but it's difficult for us mere mortals.  In the absence of a bobby1, redarmi, Camel, etc insight this is the best I can do:

It's a very generally priced market, including a player who is ineligible among the favourites, and there are a specific set of cirumstances around our man which, to me, would make him the favourite in this market.  Taking the shortest price (McLeod) that would be 6/1, so my guess is that Scotland specifically should be 5/1.

So it depends whether 15/2 on a 5/1 (or a 6/1) shot is enough value for you to want to make the punt.

If you know the book is created incompetently (as you suggested), isn't then referencing within the book to find a value a bad idea? e.g. if I priced Luke Steele @ 3/1 in that game, it wouldn't then make sense to assume everyone should be shorter than 3/1, which is what you've sort of done w/ McLeod.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Definitely dithering on the Lions captain as it would be no fun having a bet only to see an injury rule our choice out. I was just surprised to see that having looked at that market for a couple of weeks with no Ryan Jones priced up and then all of a sudden we discuss it on here and the next day he is in there.

Today we have a rugby union game between Worcester and Northampton. These sides both have good defences and not much of an attack. Played at the Worcester ground, which is a very heavy surface , it should be low scoring. Northampton are the better team but that is counterbalanced by Worcester's home advantage.

Suggest £24 under 38.5 points @ 5/6 Ladbrokes
             £ 3 the draw @ 20-1 Paddy Power, Betfred, Coral

[Karabiner]

Probably not the place for this, but what the heck.

Any thoughts on the Ascot Chase today? I'm a Cue Card fan and think 2m5 is a much better distance. 5/2 is not exactly mouth-watering tho against this field. Interested in thoughts.

Today's race appears to be a dress-rehearsal for The Ryanair at Cheltenham.

Probably CC's optimum trip but not 100% to see it out according to Tizzard.

I don't think that the GC is currently on their agenda.

[TightEnd]

hector do you have any views on Quins/Leicester please?

Quins have picked a very mobile team, Flood and Evans will kick penalties all day too

Conditions and pitch fine down South

Tempted by the overs in the low 40s

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Definitely dithering on the Lions captain as it would be no fun having a bet only to see an injury rule our choice out. I was just surprised to see that having looked at that market for a couple of weeks with no Ryan Jones priced up and then all of a sudden we discuss it on here and the next day he is in there.

Today we have a rugby union game between Worcester and Northampton. These sides both have good defences and not much of an attack. Played at the Worcester ground, which is a very heavy surface , it should be low scoring. Northampton are the better team but that is counterbalanced by Worcester's home advantage.

Suggest £24 under 38.5 points @ 5/6 Ladbrokes
             £ 3 the draw @ 20-1 Paddy Power, Betfred, Coral

Thanks h.

Whilst I get that sorted out, those with a Bet365 Account may want to do the Unders with them, they go 10/11 Under 39/5, which is a fair bit better.

I tried getting on with them, but they only offered me £5.50.

[Tal]

Probably not the place for this, but what the heck.

Any thoughts on the Ascot Chase today? I'm a Cue Card fan and think 2m5 is a much better distance. 5/2 is not exactly mouth-watering tho against this field. Interested in thoughts.

Today's race appears to be a dress-rehearsal for The Ryanair at Cheltenham.

Probably CC's optimum trip but not 100% to see it out according to Tizzard.

I don't think that the GC is currently on their agenda.

It looks like it'll be a good race and my position is generally not to attach much weight to this race when I'm looking at the Cheltenham card. Never quite know who's ready, who's yet to peak and who's peaked too soon.

Ice cream thinking?

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Definitely dithering on the Lions captain as it would be no fun having a bet only to see an injury rule our choice out. I was just surprised to see that having looked at that market for a couple of weeks with no Ryan Jones priced up and then all of a sudden we discuss it on here and the next day he is in there.

Today we have a rugby union game between Worcester and Northampton. These sides both have good defences and not much of an attack. Played at the Worcester ground, which is a very heavy surface , it should be low scoring. Northampton are the better team but that is counterbalanced by Worcester's home advantage.

Suggest £24 under 38.5 points @ 5/6 Ladbrokes
             £ 3 the draw @ 20-1 Paddy Power, Betfred, Coral

Lovely stuuff, thank you.

Northampton v Worcester.

We have £24 @ 5/6, Ladbrokes, UNDER 38.5 Points.

And £3 @ 20/1, Betfred, the Draw.

ON

Event Information: Worcester v Northampton
Aviva Premiership
2013-02-16 15:00:00
 
Market: Total match points (over/under) 
 
Selection: Under @ 5/6 
 
Handicap: +38.5 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000257
 
Placed at: 11:14 16/02/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £24.00
 
Number of lines: 1
 
Stake: £24.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £24.00
 
 
_______

Worcester v Northampton
80 Minute Betting
 Draw 20/1 
Total stake £ 3.00
Estimated return £ 63.00

Full stake £ 3.00
Full estimated return £ 63.00

[Tal]

Tax?