Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Tal porn ITT...

2,000 pages. About blummin time, say I.

[doubleup]

Wiiiiii the asteroid missed.

 

fml I've lost every bet I made today.

[tikay]

Our boxing match starts at 9.30pm on Channel 200.

 

[Sheriff Fatman]

A couple of suggestions for our match at Franchise FC tomorrow.

I've been looking at the Barnsley win price all week at around 2/1, as it's a little surprising to see the lower division team as the favourite given our recent form.  However, I think the match odds look about right, and reflect the fact that we're not that far apart in overall league positions and that Franchise have disposed of Sheff Wed and QPR so far.  The Barnsley price was a little bigger earlier in the week so has presumably tempted a few but it's a no-play for me, even with the rose-tinted specs on.

However, there are a couple of spots I do like:

Jason Scotland LAST Goalscorer at 15/2 with BetVictor and a couple of others.

As far as I can see, first and last goalscorer markets are identical.  This is specifically a recommendation for the last goalscorer market as Scotland has been used as a 2nd half substitute since signing for us and has scored in each of his 3 games.  He's looked sharp on each occasion and looks to be a threat each time he gets the ball.  In each game he's played so far he's been the last goalscorer on each occasion, and I see no reason why we'd change the recent game plan of starting Harewood and Dagnall and bringing Scotland on in the second half against tiring legs (he himself said as much in his post-match interview at Boro).  With this being a cup-tie there's a decent chance he gets a slightly longer run-out if we're behind and chasing the game in the second half.  Based on the circumstances, I think he should be shorter than the general price being offered around him.  For info, BV make Chris O'Grady a shorter price at 7/1, and he's cup-tied, so it's not exactly a well researched market.


I also think BV are out of line on the Corner Supremacy for the game, and that Barnsley are value here at 11/5.  I like this spot much more than the general match odds, and BV are somewhat out of line with the other firms here (Hills are shortest at 11/8).  Again, it's not hard to envisage a team being behind and chasing the game in the second half and forcing a few corners.  The match odds suggest it's more likely to be us doing so and I don't think there's necessarily such a correlation between the end result and the corners market so even in a losing effort I could see us wining the corners stats, certainly to the extent that the 3/5 price for MK looks way too short.  (NB: QPR won the corners 11-1 when losing 4-2 to them in the last round, albeit this was Premier League team at home and 4-0 down at one point so not obviously comparable, but it demonstrates the general point I'm trying to make).

Perhaps I'm being a bit of an ice-cream here, in which case I'll no doubt get told so, but I like both spots and suggest:

£10 Jason Scotland, LAST Goalscorer 15/2 BetVictor
£20 Barnsley Most Corners, 11/5 BetVictor

[tikay]

Really like the price of that Corners bet, Curtis.

I have got on that, as advised, details to follow later.

We can look at that Goalscorer bet in the morning.

Thanks.

[tikay]

In the Boxing, after 9 of the 12 rounds, our man appears to be comfortably ahead on points.

[tikay]

1 round to go, both fighters are almost out on their feet.

We seem to be well ahead, the other fella needs a knockout to win.

Probably.

[tikay]

Bazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzaa!

Winner.

[tikay]

Jon Lewis Dickinson v David Dolan

They fight tonight for the British Cruiserweight title.  They fought 18months ago and JLD won on points (97-94), since then JLD has definitely progressed winning the English title followed by the British title.  Dolan's best days are probably behind him and I see JLD winning this more comfortably this time.  JLD is not a big puncher though only stopping 3 out of 12 and is content to use his jab and fight at range.  The 3 he has stopped had all been stopped before, two of them multiple times so they were fragile. Dolan has been down but never been stopped (retired once due to injury) in his 4 defeats.  This has all the hallmarks of a one sided 12 rounder and I'd expect JLD to win something like 118-110 on the cards. Injuries are probably our biggest danger here as both have had issues in that department in the past but 11/10 for a JLD unanimous decision(Ladbrokes under the Final Judgement tab) is too big.  It should be odds on. Rec £50.

It's on Sky channel 200 tonight at 2130 if anyone is interested.   

Spot on.

[Bazzaboy]

Jon Lewis Dickinson v David Dolan

They fight tonight for the British Cruiserweight title.  They fought 18months ago and JLD won on points (97-94), since then JLD has definitely progressed winning the English title followed by the British title.  Dolan's best days are probably behind him and I see JLD winning this more comfortably this time.  JLD is not a big puncher though only stopping 3 out of 12 and is content to use his jab and fight at range.  The 3 he has stopped had all been stopped before, two of them multiple times so they were fragile. Dolan has been down but never been stopped (retired once due to injury) in his 4 defeats.  This has all the hallmarks of a one sided 12 rounder and I'd expect JLD to win something like 118-110 on the cards. Injuries are probably our biggest danger here as both have had issues in that department in the past but 11/10 for a JLD unanimous decision(Ladbrokes under the Final Judgement tab) is too big.  It should be odds on. Rec £50.

It's on Sky channel 200 tonight at 2130 if anyone is interested.   

Spot on.

Almost perfect. I'll take that!!

[Marky147]

Jon Lewis Dickinson v David Dolan

They fight tonight for the British Cruiserweight title.  They fought 18months ago and JLD won on points (97-94), since then JLD has definitely progressed winning the English title followed by the British title.  Dolan's best days are probably behind him and I see JLD winning this more comfortably this time.  JLD is not a big puncher though only stopping 3 out of 12 and is content to use his jab and fight at range.  The 3 he has stopped had all been stopped before, two of them multiple times so they were fragile. Dolan has been down but never been stopped (retired once due to injury) in his 4 defeats.  This has all the hallmarks of a one sided 12 rounder and I'd expect JLD to win something like 118-110 on the cards. Injuries are probably our biggest danger here as both have had issues in that department in the past but 11/10 for a JLD unanimous decision(Ladbrokes under the Final Judgement tab) is too big.  It should be odds on. Rec £50.

It's on Sky channel 200 tonight at 2130 if anyone is interested.   

Spot on.

Almost perfect. I'll take that!!

Well done Bazza, I had a look on Laddies to get on and the market had already gone

[rfgqqabc]

£10 Jason Scotland, LAST Goalscorer 15/2 BetVictor
£20 Barnsley Most Corners, 11/5 BetVictor

MK Dons v Barnsley - Race to 5 Corners
MK Dons   
8/11
Neither   
19/4
Barnsley   
11/5

MK Dons v Barnsley - Most Team Corners
Sat 16 Feb 15:00    Price
MK Dons   
3/5
Draw   
7/1
Barnsley   
11/5

MK Dons v Barnsley - Corners - Barnsley
Sat 16 Feb 15:00    Price
Under 4.5   
17/20
Over 4.5   
39/40

MK Dons v Barnsley - Corners - MK Dons
Sat 16 Feb 15:00    Price
Under 5.5   
11/10
Over 5.5   
8/11

Sure someone can make some sense of this. 11/5 first to 5 seems interesting given the overall price. All from BV.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0900, Saturday February 16th

PROFIT on Month = £559.15

Unsettled Bets  - £815.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=19

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0910, Saturday February 16th

We cleared a profit of £55 yesterday.

With perfect efficiency, we had one completed bet, & one winner.

Bazza had tipped us a boxer, & the fight went exactly as he had predicted, & he near as damn got the judges scores right, too. As 11/10 shots go, we seemed to have had tremendous value. +£55.

Looks like a fairly quiet weekend ahead on the betting front, but thats fine, we dont have to bet, & we can await the value spots as & when they arise.

We have had a small Corners bet on MK Dons v Barnsley, & are considering a Goalscorer bet on the same game.

There appears to be a wish to get against Liverpool today, & I think we will go the Lay route. 

[TightEnd]

Liverpool is tomorrow 3pm. No rush,and some conflicting views.