Tips for Tikay

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Interesting horse running today

Furrows in 4.05 Haydock

Was banned for 40days two runs ago as non trier against two decent yardsticks. It did look dodgy.

Last time out was never gonna win or put in with a chance for obv reasons. Today it's first run in a handicap over a half mile more,w which looks ideal.
 Was 12s last night and has seen some money. Not a recommend but worth a look to the horse brigade.

[Sheriff Fatman]

A couple of suggestions for our match at Franchise FC tomorrow.

I've been looking at the Barnsley win price all week at around 2/1, as it's a little surprising to see the lower division team as the favourite given our recent form.  However, I think the match odds look about right, and reflect the fact that we're not that far apart in overall league positions and that Franchise have disposed of Sheff Wed and QPR so far.  The Barnsley price was a little bigger earlier in the week so has presumably tempted a few but it's a no-play for me, even with the rose-tinted specs on.

However, there are a couple of spots I do like:

Jason Scotland LAST Goalscorer at 15/2 with BetVictor and a couple of others.

As far as I can see, first and last goalscorer markets are identical.  This is specifically a recommendation for the last goalscorer market as Scotland has been used as a 2nd half substitute since signing for us and has scored in each of his 3 games.  He's looked sharp on each occasion and looks to be a threat each time he gets the ball.  In each game he's played so far he's been the last goalscorer on each occasion, and I see no reason why we'd change the recent game plan of starting Harewood and Dagnall and bringing Scotland on in the second half against tiring legs (he himself said as much in his post-match interview at Boro).  With this being a cup-tie there's a decent chance he gets a slightly longer run-out if we're behind and chasing the game in the second half.  Based on the circumstances, I think he should be shorter than the general price being offered around him.  For info, BV make Chris O'Grady a shorter price at 7/1, and he's cup-tied, so it's not exactly a well researched market.


I also think BV are out of line on the Corner Supremacy for the game, and that Barnsley are value here at 11/5.  I like this spot much more than the general match odds, and BV are somewhat out of line with the other firms here (Hills are shortest at 11/8).  Again, it's not hard to envisage a team being behind and chasing the game in the second half and forcing a few corners.  The match odds suggest it's more likely to be us doing so and I don't think there's necessarily such a correlation between the end result and the corners market so even in a losing effort I could see us wining the corners stats, certainly to the extent that the 3/5 price for MK looks way too short.  (NB: QPR won the corners 11-1 when losing 4-2 to them in the last round, albeit this was Premier League team at home and 4-0 down at one point so not obviously comparable, but it demonstrates the general point I'm trying to make).

Perhaps I'm being a bit of an ice-cream here, in which case I'll no doubt get told so, but I like both spots and suggest:

£10 Jason Scotland, LAST Goalscorer 15/2 BetVictor
£20 Barnsley Most Corners, 11/5 BetVictor

Thanks Curtis.

As I noted last night, I got on the Corners bet as below.

I need some help from others on the LAST goalscorer bet, as I cannot assess the value. Not sure we have ever got one of these home, & I'm not mad keen on them personally, but I'll listen to & heed the advice of the experts.

We have £20 @ 11/5, BetVictor, MK Dons v Barnsley, BARNSLEY MOST CORNERS.

ON

Betid 30191562600 Time: 23:56 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 20.00  
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS  
MK Dons v Barnsley ENG FA Cup
Most Team Corners - 90 Mins
 Barnsley  11/5  Win only  Unsettled  

I was trying to think of a way to quantify it last night when writing the post, but it's difficult for us mere mortals.  In the absence of a bobby1, redarmi, Camel, etc insight this is the best I can do:

It's a very generally priced market, including a player who is ineligible among the favourites, and there are a specific set of cirumstances around our man which, to me, would make him the favourite in this market.  Taking the shortest price (McLeod) that would be 6/1, so my guess is that Scotland specifically should be 5/1.

So it depends whether 15/2 on a 5/1 (or a 6/1) shot is enough value for you to want to make the punt.

If you know the book is created incompetently (as you suggested), isn't then referencing within the book to find a value a bad idea? e.g. if I priced Luke Steele @ 3/1 in that game, it wouldn't then make sense to assume everyone should be shorter than 3/1, which is what you've sort of done w/ McLeod.

But the goalscorer markets typically look like this one in general so a fair start point is that a favourite in a market where there's no outstanding candidate (ie a Messi) is typically around a 6/1 price.

That's what's been priced up here but I'm suggesting there should be a clear favourite.

[tikay]

Brief summary of Fred's Fun lined up for today.......

3pm, Football, MK Dons v Barnsley, Barnsley Most Corners, £20 @ 11.5, Sheriff.

3pm - RU, Worcester v Northampton, UNDER 38.5 points, £24 @ 5/6, hector

3pm - RU, Worcester v Northampton, DRAW, £3 @ 20/1, hector

4pm - Horse Racing, Alfred Hutchinson, 4pm Lingfield, £5 EW @ 15/2, horsey.

The Basketball bet (MVP) is not until 1am Monday.

So we have a modest but fun £57 invested so far.

In addition, we have several Golf Bets in-play.

Good luck all.  

[Doobs]

Probably not the place for this, but what the heck.

Any thoughts on the Ascot Chase today? I'm a Cue Card fan and think 2m5 is a much better distance. 5/2 is not exactly mouth-watering tho against this field. Interested in thoughts.

I agree with Tal.  Like two replies both using CC to describe two different horses.  Long Run wins the Gold Cup obviously.  Not sure why it is still 7/1 after two of his potential rivals missing the race.  Suppose some of his rivals might just be as good as him with improvement.

[tikay]

Half time in the MK Dons v Barnsley game, the corner count is 1-1.

We are on Barnsley most corners, so we have a chance, but Barnsley are 2-0 up, so that may work against us.

[tikay]

In our Rugby bet, it is 12-9 at half time.

We are on Under 38.5 points, and the tie.

Double sweat on.

[tikay]

In the South Africa golf, our chap, Van Zyl, is joint leader after 3 rounds, so we are in decent shape.

Can't recall our exact bet, but I think we have £10 EW at 14/1.

Perfect situation for us, we go into the final round with a great chance.

[tikay]

Cue Card wins the Ascot Chase in good style - well done Spurs Bloke.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Half time in the MK Dons v Barnsley game, the corner count is 1-1.

We are on Barnsley most corners, so we have a chance, but Barnsley are 2-0 up, so that may work against us.

You stole my thunder.  In complete control so far but you'd expect them to apply a bit of pressure in the 2nd half.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Scotland on for Harewood at half time for anyone on the other bet.

[tikay]

Alfred Hutchinson, horseys tip, ran a good race to finish 3rd (we are EW).

Ran well, I thought, though perhaps found himself in front a shade too soon which set the others up for the final furlong swoop.

Small profit though, so happy with that, we have some money in the plus column to get us going.

[tikay]

50 minutes gone in the Rugby, the score is 12-12.

Oohhhhh

[Sheriff Fatman]

MK start the half with a corner. 1-2 down now.

[horseplayer]

yes ran its race i think (evens in running)

possibly went a smidgen to soon but the winner was a long way the best in that race so it would have made zero difference

[Tal]

Cue Card wins the Ascot Chase in good style - well done Spurs Bloke.

TYVM.

Needed that