Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0930, Thursday March 14th

PROFIT on Month = £399.60

Outstanding bets £1,165



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[TightEnd]

Exactly what I needed, saved me a bunch of time, thanks Rich.

Trott should open up a nice lead for us today, if he  continues in the same form, & as you say, a 2nd innings looks unlikely. I can't find a current "Top England Batsmen" list, though we must be in OK shape?

Presumably, given the pitch, our McCullum bet does not look quite so good now?

The Mullins bet has been terrific so far, & we have a great chance.

The McCullum bet would look better on a spicy pitch it is true. The likelihood is increased that one of the top 5 will get in and score big, whereas on a lively one any flaws would be exposed getting McCullum in earlier

That said, with McCullum talking 24 hours beforehand about bowling first if he won the toss, which he did, it was a more than reasonable bet on the information available at the time. Still might be

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0945, Thursday March 14th

We lost a whole £5 yesterday. For a day at Cheltenham, that is almost a win.

We really should have made a small profit, but we/I made two crucial mistaskes, which made a lot of difference.

We had The Liquidator Each Way, placed 4th @ 25/1, but we were with Betfred, who only paid 3 places, whereas other Bookies paid 4 places. I guess I saved a penny & lost a pound by going with what (I thought) was the best price. Pretty annoying unforced error.

We also set up a beautiful impossible to lose position with Pont Alexandre, then messed up. Only 3 of our 4 Lays got Matched, & with hindsight (& more time) I should have changed the price of that one before the race so as to ensure it got Matched. Another unforced error, & this was compounded when one of those "Must Do" Priority Offers came in for Pony & we invested a further £25. If Pont had won, of course, those errors would not have been noticed, & we'd look pretty smart.

Our other loss on the day was Mail de Bievre, -£20. Never in with a chance.

On the upside, Sprinter Sacre absolutely hacked up. We had two Priority Offers oin this, both won. £20 @ Evens with Coral, & an enhanced double (with Simonsig) with Jennings Bookmakers for £25 @ 2/1, giving us +£50. Our first ever bet with Jennings, too. Great spot by Neil Channing, that one.

So, we are doing OK at Cheltenham, but let us not kid ourselves, it is all down to that 5 places Supreme Novices thing, as well as a few Priority Offers.

Note that Mr Betting Emporium now has over 60 points profit at Cheltenham.

[tikay]

Exactly what I needed, saved me a bunch of time, thanks Rich.

Trott should open up a nice lead for us today, if he  continues in the same form, & as you say, a 2nd innings looks unlikely. I can't find a current "Top England Batsmen" list, though we must be in OK shape?

Presumably, given the pitch, our McCullum bet does not look quite so good now?

The Mullins bet has been terrific so far, & we have a great chance.

The McCullum bet would look better on a spicy pitch it is true. The likelihood is increased that one of the top 5 will get in and score big, whereas on a lively one any flaws would be exposed getting McCullum in earlier

That said, with McCullum talking 24 hours beforehand about bowling first if he won the toss, which he did, it was a more than reasonable bet on the information available at the time. Still might be

Let us hope so, though for clarification, I have no problems with the bet at all, but I just think, as played, we are in a slightly worse position now.

[Doobs]

Daily Summary, @ 0945, Thursday March 14th

We lost a whole £5 yesterday. For a day at Cheltenham, that is almost a win.

We really should have made a small profit, but we/I made two crucial mistaskes, which made a lot of difference.

We had The Liquidator Each Way, placed 4th @ 25/1, but we were with Betfred, who only paid 3 places, whereas other Bookies paid 4 places. I guess I saved a penny & lost a pound by going with what (I thought) was the best price. Pretty annoying unforced error.

We also set up a beautiful impossible to lose position with Pont Alexandre, then messed up. Only 3 of our 4 Lays got Matched, & with hidsight (& more time) I should have changed the price of that one before the race so as to ensure it got Matched. Another unforced error, & this was compounded when one of those "Must Do" Priority Offers came in for Pony & we invested a further £25. If Pont had won, of course, those errors would not have been noticed, & we'd look pretty smart.

Our other loss on the day was Mail de Bievre, -£20. Never in with a chance.

On the upside, Sprinter Sacre absolutely hacked up. We had two Priority Offers oin this, both won. £20 @ Evens with Coral, & an enhanced double (with Simonsig) with Jennings Bookmakers for £25 @ 2/1, giving us +£50. Our first ever bet with Jennings, too. Great spot by Neil Channing, that one.

So, we are doing OK at Cheltenham, but let us not kid ourselves, it is all down to that 5 places Supreme Novices thing, as well as a few Priority Offers.

Note that Mr Betting Emporium now has over 60 points profit at Cheltenham.

You made no errors on Pont Alexandre.  Effectively you ended up with 2 bets at much better than SP on a strongly fancied horse.  If you did that every day, you would crush. 

Taking 3/1 about a horse that should really be 6/1 that wins anyway would be an error!

[tikay]

Today.

We have some Snooker, Cricket, & Tennis stuff, & tonight is Premier League Darts, though we should heed the warnings we got from our Darts lads last week to be careful on Premier League stuff due to the format. But if we can find some value, a tickle would be in order.

At Cheltenham, meanwhile, entering Day Three with our bankroll still intact, we have these today.....

Ryanair Chase

Alberta's Run, £10 EW @ 25/1. Current price around half that I believe.

Cue Card, £30 @ 5/1. Currently around 100/30.

World Hurdle

Oscar Whisky, £15 @ 6/1. Current price 100/30.

Sundry


We have £20 on McCoy, Top Jockey, which is currently not in good shape, to put it mildly.

We also have Mullins Top Trainer, whuch is in rude health, £40 @ 7/4.

There is also the remnants of the Lucky15 by Big Adz, in which we had Rock on Ruby, Sir Des Champs, Boston Bob, & Champion Court. There remains a pulse.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Here are the current scores in the top tallish batter markets as of close of play on day 1 of the 2nd test.

Cook          143
Compton     217
Trott          218
Pietersen      30
Bell              50
Root             4

Feel free to check out my new cricket tipping site    www.battingemporium.co.uk

I would make Trott about 4/6 now.

[TightEnd]

Can we go in again on the people versus Mark Williams please?

Ben Wollaston, up and comer with a very decent record in best of sevens, 6/4 v Wlliams 1/2 in a best of 7 at the PTC later today

- best of 7 is a randomising format
- Williams no form all season
- Williams possible motivation issues

Thread is 2 for 2 opposing him, can't make Williams 1/2 against many players in this format

£40 at 6/4

[Dubai]

Suggest the 11/10 with blue square over 6.5 180s in Barney Thornton game has to be wrong, out of line with everyone else, market shaping up like it will be under this price comfortably enough on betfair. They are tied 2nd in most 180s so far, averaging 4 each per game. Interestingly (but perhaps not that relevant) between them they have thrown over 6.5 in all 5 weeks

Suggest £40@ 11/10

[biggle57]

Just been having a look at the latest League 1 market. With 8/9 games left of the season (10 for Sheff U), and looking at the run ins of all the teams up there, fancy a bit of a banzai bet on Bournemouth at 25/1 on betfair. Reasoning :- Games aainst top 10 teams left are
Doncaster 2 home and 2 away
Sheff Utd   2 home and 2 away
Brentford  2 home and 3 away
Swindon   2 home and 3 away
Yeovil       2 home and 1 away
Tranmere  1 home and 3 away
Bournemouth 1 home and 1 away

Bournemouths away game is at Tranmere last game of the season, and all their remaining games look very winnable. Next 4 games all against bottom teams.

Think the table is going to be very tight going into last 3 games

[Dubai]

Can we go in again on the people versus Mark Williams please?

Ben Wollaston, up and comer with a very decent record in best of sevens, 6/4 v Wlliams 1/2 in a best of 7 at the PTC later today

- best of 7 is a randomising format
- Williams no form all season
- Williams possible motivation issues

Thread is 2 for 2 opposing him, can't make Williams 1/2 against many players in this format

£40 at 6/4

13/8 bf

[tikay]

Suggest the 11/10 with blue square over 6.5 180s in Barney Thornton game has to be wrong, out of line with everyone else, market shaping up like it will be under this price comfortably enough on betfair. They are tied 2nd in most 180s so far, averaging 4 each per game. Interestingly (but perhaps not that relevant) between them they have thrown over 6.5 in all 5 weeks

Suggest £40@ 11/10

Ha, Dubai the Dart bloke is back.

Looks a good bet going by those stats, & as luck would have it, it falls just inside the Max which Blue Square would allow me - the line was £45.

We have £40 @ 11/10, Blue Square, OVER 6.5 x 180's, Barney v Thornton.

ON

 Selection Over 6.5 @ 11/10  
Market
 Total 180s
 
Event
 Premier League
Raymond van Barneveld v Robert Thornton
2013-03-14 20:40:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £40.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £40.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2013-03-14 10:33:41
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000195
 

[tikay]

Can we go in again on the people versus Mark Williams please?

Ben Wollaston, up and comer with a very decent record in best of sevens, 6/4 v Wlliams 1/2 in a best of 7 at the PTC later today

- best of 7 is a randomising format
- Williams no form all season
- Williams possible motivation issues

Thread is 2 for 2 opposing him, can't make Williams 1/2 against many players in this format

£40 at 6/4

Absolutely, Williams cut a sad & disinterested figure last time.

Thanks Rich. Disappointed you never included a weather forecast or socia-economic bell-graph though.

We have taken the Dubai hint, & gone the Betty route.

We have £40 @ 2.6, Betfair, Ben Woolaston to beat Mark Williams.

ON

Ben WoollastonMatch Odds    2.6 £40.00 £64.00
Ref: 25799283622M Matched: 10:38 14-Mar-13 (UTC)

[Dubai]

Works out 80pence better per £100 to lay Williams on bf Also the market was only 101.8% to back and 98.2% to lay, you probably would have got matched @2.62/2.64 for small money if you put it up.

The pennies add up

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Here are the current scores in the top tallish batter markets as of close of play on day 1 of the 2nd test.

Cook          143
Compton     217
Trott          218
Pietersen      30
Bell              50
Root             4

Feel free to check out my new cricket tipping site    www.battingemporium.co.uk

I would make Trott about 4/6 now.

Please let me not be the only one who clicked that link, I thought it was to our friend Mr Beevers.....

Looks to me that Trott is almost freerolling now, and a good knock today will be great for the bet.