Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

No worries Ralph, & yes, the cruelty in those days, compared to standards now, was beyond belief. But it worked out just fine, & made us stronger & better, more able to take life's bumps & bruises with a bit of dignity & strength.

The Our Conor & Alderwood results were quite something for the bookies, especially the circumstances of Alderwood's win.

I'm not giving away too many secrets if I say that the Bookies had a magnificent first three days, they made eye-popping amounts of money. Day 4, though, was a disaster for all of them, not so much singles - they never bother "retail" bookies much - but for all the liabilities running-on in multiples, & the Alderwood race was the last race for most multiples, so there was no escaping.

It was, I thought, quite interesting to see how different folks here reacted to the girl falling off when the horse jinked. One lad lost money because of it, & felt the girl had made a mistake. (If only we did but know how difficult & brave it is, especially for Amateurs, to ride racehorses over obstacles). Others, many of them, profited by the incident, some for huge amounts.

Strange how our view of things is coloured by circumstances.

Imagine all those folks with huge bets running onto Alderwood would have felt if the roles were reversed, & it had been Alderwood that threw his jockey......

[Snowball]

[quote author=TightEnd link=topic=56581.msg1738175#msg1738175 date=1363431165
I would caution though that Cardiff set up very solid away from home and have in my opinion the best goalkeeper/centre back combination in the league
[/quote]

Goalkeeper David Marshall, that brings back nice memories for me and Teacake, we witnessed him make is full Celtic debut in the Nou Camp of all places.Celtic were protecting a first leg 1-0 lead and Marshall went on to have one of the best goalkeeping displays I have ever seen against Ronaldhino and co and kept a clean sheet.His 2nd match was against Rangers at Ibrox and he pulles off some amazing saves there also.The media attention he got after those crazy with the press basically camping outside his Mothers Home for two days.He was only 19 at the time which is a baby in goalkeeping years.

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,

I too, would like a shot of getting in the blue.

Today Bolton play ipswich at portmand road, Ipswich have gained 1 win an scored only once in their last 5 games and are sitting just outside the relegation spots.

Bolton on the other hand have been flying, Unbeaten in 8 and won 5 game on the bounce, therefore i was shocked to see the game priced up the way it was, i know its an away game in the championship but think bolton are real value at 2.8 in various places, 2.88 on betfair but less commission works out around the same.

Reccomend £20 on Bolton at 2.8

Bump not sure if you missed this, also happy for it not to be placed but if we can debate it would be nice.

Sorry Killer, I completely missed that, due to my mini-rant & diversion probably, sorry.

Yes, it would be grand to get you in the blue, & you are only £15 down after two bets, so we will probably do this.

Before I do, any expert views from the lads? I really would like to do this & square that Account, illogical as it may sound.

[Doobs]

Antonio of Sheff W

Has scored in 5 of his last 7, so definitely in form since he has been up front

1 of those was first goal


Overall he has scored the first goal twice this season, not "4 or 5 times" (I prefer accurate research not guesses lol) in 35 appearances

He has 8 goals overall, and six have been since Xmas

Perhaps the way of supporting Aaron's bet is to have him to score "Anytime"?

11-1 FGS only available B365, and Anytime is 1/3 the odds so a shade under 4-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-cardiff/first-goalscorer


I would caution though that Cardiff set up very solid away from home and have in my opinion the best goalkeeper/centre back combination in the league

Ha!

Well I never knew, & Aaron never said, that Mr Antonio had scored in 5 of his last 7, or six since Christmas.

Scored 8 in total? I checked BBC Sport, & I thought it credited him with 9.

I know this sounds daft, but I went to bed thinking about this bet last night, something in the Recommend was not sitting right with me - & you have jogged my mind now - it was that strangely loose expression "4 or 5 times".

I'm trying hard to find ways of evaluating bets these days, so now we know.....

He has scored 8 (or is it 9?) goals in 36 games.

He has only twice been FGS all season.

He is on a run of form.

Now how do we turn that into a probability, & so a true price?

Is 11/1 FGS, or 4/1 AnyTime, value?

And then we have to factor in the opponents - Cardiff.

Not yanking your chain here Aaron, I'm genuinely interested in how we assess bets like this. There are exceptions, but as a general rule, I don't much like Football FGS stuff, one reason being is that we know the bookies price them up grotesquely over-round, so we have to get a lot right over time.

He would be a fair price for an average game.  I haven't got exact stats, but home advantage and playing the leaders seem likely to be close to cancelling out.  But we know he is playing up front and this is our edge.  Most bookies seem to have cottoned on, but a couple haven't.

I wouldn't worry too much about the difference between his first goal scorer stats and his overall.  I don't think it is likely he suddenly comes to life after one score.  Maybe he does better against tired defences, but more likely he only has 2 goals as FGS because of simple variance.

I'd happily do a tenner on both FGS and anytime scores and have done.

[tikay]

[quote author=TightEnd link=topic=56581.msg1738175#msg1738175 date=1363431165
I would caution though that Cardiff set up very solid away from home and have in my opinion the best goalkeeper/centre back combination in the league

Goalkeeper David Marshall, that brings back nice memories for me and Teacake, we witnessed him make is full Celtic debut in the Nou Camp of all places.Celtic were protecting a first leg 1-0 lead and Marshall went on to have one of the best goalkeeping displays I have ever seen against Ronaldhino and co and kept a clean sheet.His 2nd match was against Rangers at Ibrox and he pulles off some amazing saves there also.The media attention he got after those crazy with the press basically camping outside his Mothers Home for two days.He was only 19 at the time which is a baby in goalkeeping years.
[/quote]

I love stories like that Snowy, thank you.

I thought of you lads up there when I was perusing today's Live Football schedules on Sky Sports - Elgin v Rangers. It still does not sound right somehow. Elgin v Rangers......

How much have you missed Rangers being in the SPL, & the big Old Firm matches, has it dampened the fervour?

[tikay]

Antonio of Sheff W

Has scored in 5 of his last 7, so definitely in form since he has been up front

1 of those was first goal


Overall he has scored the first goal twice this season, not "4 or 5 times" (I prefer accurate research not guesses lol) in 35 appearances

He has 8 goals overall, and six have been since Xmas

Perhaps the way of supporting Aaron's bet is to have him to score "Anytime"?

11-1 FGS only available B365, and Anytime is 1/3 the odds so a shade under 4-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-cardiff/first-goalscorer


I would caution though that Cardiff set up very solid away from home and have in my opinion the best goalkeeper/centre back combination in the league

Ha!

Well I never knew, & Aaron never said, that Mr Antonio had scored in 5 of his last 7, or six since Christmas.

Scored 8 in total? I checked BBC Sport, & I thought it credited him with 9.

I know this sounds daft, but I went to bed thinking about this bet last night, something in the Recommend was not sitting right with me - & you have jogged my mind now - it was that strangely loose expression "4 or 5 times".

I'm trying hard to find ways of evaluating bets these days, so now we know.....

He has scored 8 (or is it 9?) goals in 36 games.

He has only twice been FGS all season.

He is on a run of form.

Now how do we turn that into a probability, & so a true price?

Is 11/1 FGS, or 4/1 AnyTime, value?

And then we have to factor in the opponents - Cardiff.

Not yanking your chain here Aaron, I'm genuinely interested in how we assess bets like this. There are exceptions, but as a general rule, I don't much like Football FGS stuff, one reason being is that we know the bookies price them up grotesquely over-round, so we have to get a lot right over time.

He would be a fair price for an average game.  I haven't got exact stats, but home advantage and playing the leaders seem likely to be close to cancelling out.  But we know he is playing up front and this is our edge.  Most bookies seem to have cottoned on, but a couple haven't.

I wouldn't worry too much about the difference between his first goal scorer stats and his overall.  I don't think it is likely he suddenly comes to life after one score.  Maybe he does better against tired defences, but more likely he only has 2 goals as FGS because of simple variance.

I'd happily do a tenner on both FGS and anytime scores and have done.

Nice one Doobs, thank you.

I wll find Aaron's bet & split the stake between FGS & AnyTime.

[Snowball]

Hi teacake, paddy are refunding all losing try scoring bets of tuilagi scores, might prove a neat way to be able to cheer on both your bets

I don't think anytime try scorers are included?

[Doobs]

Hi Tikay,

I too, would like a shot of getting in the blue.

Today Bolton play ipswich at portmand road, Ipswich have gained 1 win an scored only once in their last 5 games and are sitting just outside the relegation spots.

Bolton on the other hand have been flying, Unbeaten in 8 and won 5 game on the bounce, therefore i was shocked to see the game priced up the way it was, i know its an away game in the championship but think bolton are real value at 2.8 in various places, 2.88 on betfair but less commission works out around the same.

Reccomend £20 on Bolton at 2.8

Bump not sure if you missed this, also happy for it not to be placed but if we can debate it would be nice.

Sorry Killer, I completely missed that, due to my mini-rant & diversion probably, sorry.

Yes, it would be grand to get you in the blue, & you are only £15 down after two bets, so we will probably do this.

Before I do, any expert views from the lads? I really would like to do this & square that Account, illogical as it may sound.

Bolton are priced as a better team than Ipswich here.  I don't know how it compares with their abilities so can't help you much.

Betting to get out of holes is such a bad thing that, instinctively, I want to reach for the black ball!

[horseplayer]

Hi Tikay,

I too, would like a shot of getting in the blue.

Today Bolton play ipswich at portmand road, Ipswich have gained 1 win an scored only once in their last 5 games and are sitting just outside the relegation spots.

Bolton on the other hand have been flying, Unbeaten in 8 and won 5 game on the bounce, therefore i was shocked to see the game priced up the way it was, i know its an away game in the championship but think bolton are real value at 2.8 in various places, 2.88 on betfair but less commission works out around the same.

Reccomend £20 on Bolton at 2.8

Bump not sure if you missed this, also happy for it not to be placed but if we can debate it would be nice.

Sorry Killer, I completely missed that, due to my mini-rant & diversion probably, sorry.

Yes, it would be grand to get you in the blue, & you are only £15 down after two bets, so we will probably do this.

Before I do, any expert views from the lads? I really would like to do this & square that Account, illogical as it may sound.

Bolton are priced as a better team than Ipswich here.  I don't know how it compares with their abilities so can't help you much.

Betting to get out of holes is such a bad thing that, instinctively, I want to reach for the black ball!

ipswich are nothing if not stubborn
if i had to bet my life on a scoreline here it would be 1-1 or even a 0-0

bolton are playing better now and getting the results but the bookies no all of this as well

[tikay]

Nothing to do with Cheltenham, but found a price for you on something i have suggested quite a few times and would appreciate some Wednesday fans chirping up here

Antonio is 11/1 first goalscorer v Cardiff, whilst priced up everywhere else about 8's.

The bookies still having labelled as a winger, but he is playing up front again and has opened the scoring numerous times in a match, probably around 4-5 times minimum & scored at other times too.

11-1 is a really good price, bookies still think he is winger, but likely striker at the weekend (again).

Suggest £10.

Thanks Aaron.

After some thoughtage & debateage, we have gone with a revised version, though I missed the 11/1, sorry. That price was clearly ool at the time, & even 19/2 is still good compared to most.

We have.....

£5 @ 19/2, BetVictor, Antonio, FGS, Sheffield Wednesday v Cardiff City.

£5 @ 100/30, BetVictor, Antonio, ANYTIME Goalscorer, same game.

ON

Single Selections
Sheffield Wednesday v Cardiff City
Michail Antonio
(1st Goalscorer)
Odds:  19/2
Stake:  5.00
Possible Return:  52.50


16/03/2013 GBP 5.00 Single: MICHAIL ANTONIO @ 10/3 
Betid 30638805700 Time: 13:11 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 5.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
Sheffield Wednesday v Cardiff City ENG League Championship
Anytime Goal Scorer - 90 Mins
 Michail Antonio  10/3  Win only  Unsettled 

[Killerkilsby]

 QdIts not just to get out the hole. Its just an added bonus, honestly think they are value, yes Ipswich are being stubborn but Bolton are breaking down all opponents in their way. Think it should be closer to 2.5 at a push.

Got 2.92 on B365 a short while ago.

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,

I too, would like a shot of getting in the blue.

Today Bolton play ipswich at portmand road, Ipswich have gained 1 win an scored only once in their last 5 games and are sitting just outside the relegation spots.

Bolton on the other hand have been flying, Unbeaten in 8 and won 5 game on the bounce, therefore i was shocked to see the game priced up the way it was, i know its an away game in the championship but think bolton are real value at 2.8 in various places, 2.88 on betfair but less commission works out around the same.

Reccomend £20 on Bolton at 2.8

Part one complete - the bet is on. Now we just need Part Two to get home, i.e., Bolton to win.

There is an odd postscript to this bet - we recently backed Bolton to be relegated. Timing is all......

I could not get 2.95, but I got 15/8, which is not far shy.

We have £20 @ 15/8, BetVictor, Bolton to beat Ipswich.

Good luck.

ON


Ipswich Town v Bolton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers
(Match Betting)
Odds:  15/8
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  57.50

[Snowball]

Them no longer being in the League has no doubt took out the competitve edge as must win matches every week are no longer the case.
Due to the European run the games haven't been missed but if we don't qualify for the group stages next season it could be a long year.

[Karabiner]

Was there a final figure for Fred's Cheltenham profits?

[Chompy]

A couple of bookies are still out of line with Danny Swanson in scorer markets.

All bar Coral and VC have him around 4-1 to score any time and 14-1 to score first (Blackpool v Posh), which is about right, but these two still go 8-1 and 25-1 respectively. As long as this window remains open, valoooooo dictates...

I think he's scored first around four or five times.

Poshies will set up to try and catch the tangeriners on the break, same as at Leeds in the week, and Gayle/Swanson are the two obvious candidates to bink our first goal on the beach.

Here's some clips of Swanners playing in a pub league north of the border to get the juices flowing...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv_tqV8_jkY

£5 @ 25-1, £10 @ 8-1