Tips for Tikay

[NigDawG]

FML.

A now Deleted Post by (personal number plate) tells me the trainer of Cheers For Thea is TIM Easterby, Mick's nephew I believe.

Trust me to get it right round my neck, & write a ton of waffle about the wrong bloke.

Move on, next case, lost the plot here.

hahaha

[BigAdz]

To be fair Tikay, we were fed duff info in the OP

[Sheriff Fatman]

Cambridge 5/2 in an illiquid betfair market.

Can any team be 5/2 in the Boat Race? Two strong crews and Oxford deservedly favourites.

I'll let someone impartial decide on that.

I was thinking along similar lines, although I'm equally impartial to you.

Oxford are slightly heavier, Cambridge slightly taller on average, but I'm slightly surprised to see them using one of their heaviest man in the stroke seat (bags of experience and presumably the best technical rower, but not the normal seat for a guy who's 6'7" and over 17st).

The biggest differential may well be in the cox seat though (http://theboatrace.org/men/compare-blue-boat/2013/cox).  Cambridge have a guy who's pretty much grown up on the Tideway by the looks of things, whilst Oxford have a foreigner who appears to have very little experience of this particular course.  That knowledge might prove to be the difference in a close race as it may well come down to who can find the fastest water.

Throw in the vaguaries of the course, the luck of the toss, etc and I'm struggling to see how the prices are so distorted towards Oxford.

Recommend a modest value bet on Cambridge at 14/5 on Betfair or 11/4 with Stan James.

[Chompy]

Didn't want to leave a negative post in this happy place.

To confirm, Cheers For Thea wants fast ground and is trained by Timothy Easterby, not foul-mouthed Uncle Mick.

[tikay]

To be fair Tikay, we were fed duff info in the OP

In my defence, there were/are so many Easterby's.

Mick & Peter trained, then Tim did the same, & I think two of their nephews played Rugby Union for Ireland.

[tikay]

Didn't want to leave a negative post in this happy place.

To confirm, Cheers For Thea wants fast ground and is trained by Timothy Easterby, not foul-mouthed Uncle Mick.

Ha!

We don't do negative here but the Post was fine, except the bit where you said Trigg was shite at punting & pokering. 

Mick never gave a toss what people thought, as he was from Yorkshire, proper Yorkshire (North).

[claypole]

Greetings from Thailand Fred

Had anybody discussed todays game. I think Villa at 9/2 is too big. Villa are coming off back to back wins and showing improvement - and Liverpool the loss at Southampton. Lambert has a 4-0 record v Rogers.  The game is priced up effectively the same as yesterdays Sunderland game; that just can't be a fair reflection.

Reccomend 40 Villa DNB.  Best price is 3/1 with B365, we get slightly better if we have 30 Villa 9/2 and 10 draw at . If we can't get on VC takes the 3/1 365

[TightEnd]

Cambridge 5/2 in an illiquid betfair market.

Can any team be 5/2 in the Boat Race? Two strong crews and Oxford deservedly favourites.

I'll let someone impartial decide on that.

I was thinking along similar lines, although I'm equally impartial to you.

Oxford are slightly heavier, Cambridge slightly taller on average, but I'm slightly surprised to see them using one of their heaviest man in the stroke seat (bags of experience and presumably the best technical rower, but not the normal seat for a guy who's 6'7" and over 17st).

The biggest differential may well be in the cox seat though (http://theboatrace.org/men/compare-blue-boat/2013/cox).  Cambridge have a guy who's pretty much grown up on the Tideway by the looks of things, whilst Oxford have a foreigner who appears to have very little experience of this particular course.  That knowledge might prove to be the difference in a close race as it may well come down to who can find the fastest water.

Throw in the vaguaries of the course, the luck of the toss, etc and I'm struggling to see how the prices are so distorted towards Oxford.

Recommend a modest value bet on Cambridge at 14/5 on Betfair or 11/4 with Stan James.

Not sure

Two weeks ago Oxford beat the German Olympic crew in their final trial

Six of the eight won Gold at London

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/2012/sports/rowing/events/mens-eight

"Oxford beat a German crew earlier this month which featured the core of the eight who won Olympic gold in London, and have several factors in their favour.

The heavier crew has won eight of the last 11 races, and Oxford weighed in for this year's contest more than 2kg heavier per man at 757.6kg (excluding the cox). "


Would appear to be a pretty good reason why Oxford are prohibitive favourites

[tikay]

Cambridge 5/2 in an illiquid betfair market.

Can any team be 5/2 in the Boat Race? Two strong crews and Oxford deservedly favourites.

I'll let someone impartial decide on that.

I was thinking along similar lines, although I'm equally impartial to you.

Oxford are slightly heavier, Cambridge slightly taller on average, but I'm slightly surprised to see them using one of their heaviest man in the stroke seat (bags of experience and presumably the best technical rower, but not the normal seat for a guy who's 6'7" and over 17st).

The biggest differential may well be in the cox seat though (http://theboatrace.org/men/compare-blue-boat/2013/cox).  Cambridge have a guy who's pretty much grown up on the Tideway by the looks of things, whilst Oxford have a foreigner who appears to have very little experience of this particular course.  That knowledge might prove to be the difference in a close race as it may well come down to who can find the fastest water.

Throw in the vaguaries of the course, the luck of the toss, etc and I'm struggling to see how the prices are so distorted towards Oxford.

Recommend a modest value bet on Cambridge at 14/5 on Betfair or 11/4 with Stan James.

Thanks Curtis.

It used to be the case that the toss was crucial in the Boat Race, presumably that is still the case, as the Thames is much the same shape as it always was......

We might just have a dabble, just £10 or £20, but deffo interested, thanks.

EDIT - Tighty poured cold water on my enthusiasm!

[The Camel]

Didn't want to leave a negative post in this happy place.

To confirm, Cheers For Thea wants fast ground and is trained by Timothy Easterby, not foul-mouthed Uncle Mick.

Ha!

We don't do negative here but the Post was fine, except the bit where you said Trigg was shite at punting & pokering. 

Mick never gave a toss what people thought, as he was from Yorkshire, proper Yorkshire (North).

Met Mick Easterby in a pub in York one evening.

Hilarious bloke but didn't get a round in as far as I remember.

[tikay]

Greetings from Thailand Fred

Had anybody discussed todays game. I think Villa at 9/2 is too big. Villa are coming off back to back wins and showing improvement - and Liverpool the loss at Southampton. Lambert has a 4-0 record v Rogers.  The game is priced up effectively the same as yesterdays Sunderland game; that just can't be a fair reflection.

Reccomend 40 Villa DNB.  Best price is 3/1 with B365, we get slightly better if we have 30 Villa 9/2 and 10 draw at . If we can't get on VC takes the 3/1 365

Shaun!

Was it you that gave us Walsall to go up/down/middle?.......

Need some feedback on this one, Fred has a shocking record trying to get the right side of Liverpool.

Where is Doobs, The Voice Of Reason, when we need him? Visiting in-laws for Easter, I fancy.

[tikay]

Didn't want to leave a negative post in this happy place.

To confirm, Cheers For Thea wants fast ground and is trained by Timothy Easterby, not foul-mouthed Uncle Mick.

Ha!

We don't do negative here but the Post was fine, except the bit where you said Trigg was shite at punting & pokering. 

Mick never gave a toss what people thought, as he was from Yorkshire, proper Yorkshire (North).

Met Mick Easterby in a pub in York one evening.

Hilarious bloke but didn't get a round in as far as I remember.

Yorkshire folk, see?

Must say Keith, you were looking very well, best I have seen you look in years, & a good deal lighter, in that photo from the APAT thing.

Did you enjoy it, & win it?

If not you, I hope it was Ian Gascoigbne or Chinese Frankie. Frankie is much missed here. Annoying sod at times, but heart in the right place.

[Snowball]

Our Man in the Darts Snakebite Wright is priced up 4/7 today, this should be closer to 1/3 imo.
On this years ranking he is 5th in the world while Osbournea record against players in the top 25 was 3 wins from 21.

I also like Thornton most 180s v Taylor @4/6 on Thursday, price won't last.
Taylor hasn't had more than 2 180s in his last 10 matches while Thornton has hit 3 or more 8 times in his last 11

[Eso Kral]

Greetings from Thailand Fred

Had anybody discussed todays game. I think Villa at 9/2 is too big. Villa are coming off back to back wins and showing improvement - and Liverpool the loss at Southampton. Lambert has a 4-0 record v Rogers.  The game is priced up effectively the same as yesterdays Sunderland game; that just can't be a fair reflection.

Reccomend 40 Villa DNB.  Best price is 3/1 with B365, we get slightly better if we have 30 Villa 9/2 and 10 draw at . If we can't get on VC takes the 3/1 365

Shaun!

Was it you that gave us Walsall to go up/down/middle?.......

Need some feedback on this one, Fred has a shocking record trying to get the right side of Liverpool.

Where is Doobs, The Voice Of Reason, when we need him? Visiting in-laws for Easter, I fancy.

To quote Milligan  #whenwillitend   

[doubleup]

Wouldn't get a complex BigAdz it is just opinions but realistically what price would you make Westwood?  

I suspect pre tourny his price is about right, but some mitigating factors suggest he may do better.

Last year you saw Westwood on a racecourse as often as a golf course, and he was obviously losing focus/interest. This year he has sacked coach and caddy, moved his family to Florida, in order to be better prepared and be able to develop a regular practice regime, in a better climate. I expect he hasn't been racing this year as he has only had one or two sand runners so far.

His problem this year, as pointed out has been his long game, with him shorting well above average on par . He seems happier this week and is back under par.

Finally, playing Augusta, I expect, is a bit like meeting the queen. High excitement, many nerves, and not sure how to conduct yourself in such austere company the first few times you meet. Augusta also seems to like stories and triers. Lee has both.

Westwood have been there enough times now, it's like an old glove.

So couple a new found desire, a solid practice regime, a sparkling recent course record, and a decent performance this week. Put aside the fact it's Lee Westwood it seems a recipe for a shorter price.

It doesn't sit well that he is my recommend, I have never ever backed the bloke, but, as Tighty said to me this week, objectivity is the key. Too many nos out there to be a bet now, but at least you may get my drift.

His form is virtually the same as last year (ignoring Bay Hill he doesn't normally play there).  

Click to see full-size image.

(The figures in red on the right of the table are how much better than average per round he is in the run up to the masters over the last 4 years)