Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

I'd be careful going too mad on these sorts of players, their win price looks attractive in relation to bf because if then drift on woods with the dq doubts- if that gets sorted they might not appear as good value as you think. Plus the 5th is bigger for each of them than someone like Day as his mean finishing position is higher, so each additional place becomes more value for Couples, Westwood etc, which makes it harder to gauge the difference between top 4 and top 5 prices. For example Westwood bf suggests finishes top 5 26.6% time if he is 11/4, taking 4/1 top 4 suggests 20%, meaning you are saying he should be 16/1 or greater to finish 5th to make it value. I think I'd back him at 16/1 to finish 6th for sure, meaning the place part is probably better value 11/4 top 5 than 4/1 top 4    

[Doobs]

Couples 30/1 with Skybet 15/2 first 4

Not on my phone??

[Snowball]

Couples 30/1 with Skybet 15/2 first 4

Not on my phone??

It's under the priceboost

[Doobs]

Couples 30/1 with Skybet 15/2 first 4

Not on my phone??

It's under the priceboost

Cheers.

[Doobs]

I'd be careful going too mad on these sorts of players, their win price looks attractive in relation to bf because if then drift on woods with the dq doubts- if that gets sorted they might not appear as good value as you think. Plus the 5th is bigger for each of them than someone like Day as his mean finishing position is higher, so each additional place becomes more value for Couples, Westwood etc, which makes it harder to gauge the difference between top 4 and top 5 prices. For example Westwood bf suggests finishes top 5 26.6% time if he is 11/4, taking 4/1 top 4 suggests 20%, meaning you are saying he should be 16/1 or greater to finish 5th to make it value. I think I'd back him at 16/1 to finish 6th for sure, meaning the place part is probably better value 11/4 top 5 than 4/1 top 4    

Dammit. Seems right.  Just spent too long going through the field.  Couples must be Ok though?

Sent you pm.  Got something to do so can't check others now.

[Dubai]

Couples is more likely to be underrated in both markets than Westwood as well. But yeah maths on Couples and Cabrera both better than Westwood IMO  but I might be wrong if anyone else sees it differently?

[tikay]

Couples is more likely to be underrated in both markets than Westwood as well. But yeah maths on Couples and Cabrera both better than Westwood IMO  but I might be wrong if anyone else sees it differently?

Good morning.

Loads to do, but for now......

Couples value?

Something in my mind, or gut, tells me that he, &/or great golfers of his age, are inclined to fade as the Tournament progresses. I am a huge Freddie fan, almost my favourite golfer of all time, & he LOVES The Masters, but even I feel he might just drift out of contention at the sharp end.

That's how I see it, anyway, as you asked....

[Tal]

Webber starts at the back of the grid tomorrow morning

[Dubai]

Which is how I'd imagine nearly everyone sees it, meaning he is probably underrated although I obviously can't see him winning.

[tikay]

Liverpool Effect, or are Reading really that bad?

Reading v Liverpool.

Reading 7/1

Draw 3/1

Liverpool 1/2


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/reading-v-liverpool/winner


I've listened to what the Big Boys say, & checked Betfair, obv - this, I think, suggested the Prices are correct.

Reading 7.8 (or Lay @ 8)

Draw 4.8

Liverpool 1.49 (or lay @ 1.5)

In which case, carry on, as you were.



PS - Reading, DNB = 5/1, Corals.

[tikay]

Which is how I'd imagine nearly everyone sees it, meaning he is probably underrated although I obviously can't see him winning.

Yeah, I forgot the Triple Range Merge.

[Doobs]

Webber starts at the back of the grid tomorrow morning

Think thread is cursed on F1.  Backed Hamilton earlier in the week, but couldn't think of a decent enough reason to put him up here.

[Karabiner]

Theirs talk that Tiger could get disqualified because of where he dropped his Ball on the 15th.

It's an interesting one....http://www.wusa9.com/news/article/254290/25/Could-Tiger-Woods-Be-Disqualified-From-The-Masters

Drifting on betfair.

This is bullshit. He dropped it in line directly back from the point it crossed the hazard. Yes it was two yards back from his previous shot but that is permitted. It looked weird at the time but its fine. Press just being alarmist.

Should Tiger have dropped it in line with where the ball entered the water when it span back though ?

That was one option, the other was to replay the shot from it's original position.

The trouble is that he played it from a couple of yards to the left and slightly back from it's original position which is probably going to be okay.

Probably but not definitely IMO especially with John Paramour about.

[Tal]

Reading v Liverpool would be the perfect example of the Liverpool effect in theory: small club with niche fan base against team with wide-ranging fan base and support in Asia.

Liverpool seem to be playing better now than they were when Fred was cashing in and Reading are truly awful atm.

7/1 tho...

[Tal]

Webber starts at the back of the grid tomorrow morning

Think thread is cursed on F1.  Backed Hamilton earlier in the week, but couldn't think of a decent enough reason to put him up here.

Must be a Fred in a parallel universe that nails F1 every time