Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 It's definitely true that this event is more over-analysed than virtually any other, but there is one great thing about that.

 On normal weeks punters are pitting their wits against odds-compilers who are expert in golf and shrewd punters. 90% of money after the Thursday will be sharp money until Sunday when some mug money will come in. Even pre-1st round a large portion of the total wagered will be shrewd.

 In the Majors, (particularly The Open and The Masters), there will be a massively increased portion of recreational money in the pool. It will dwarf any sharp money. Players like Tiger, Phil, Rory and Lee will have massive extra amounts wagered on them relative to their prices compared with players of the same price. If you add on to that the pressures that the compilers (especially at the smaller firms) have to "green out" (lets get him in the book we haven't laid him), it throws up a good situation.

 If you now look at the players 200/1 and under there are about 20. The each-way terms are very favourable with a short-priced favourite skewing things and four places paid.

 This is a great time to have a few each-way bets. I asked Joe to post a couple I had on Betting Emporium. Not sure if he has done it. I also haven't got much on (am not in the UK).

 Like the case for Westwood, although he wasn't one of the two I love. Could also see a case for Choi.

 If Tiger gets DQd obv that is even better, but these bets are great even if you knew he wouldn't be.

[Karabiner]

Woods drifting to 7 on betty.

When do we think he is value ?

If they do not disqualify him then he will be back to 4.5

The more I think about it the more I think he should be disqualified.

I think he's damned by his own admission that he replayed the shot from two yards further back when the rule states the it should have been replayed from as close as possible to the original spot.

[tikay]

Woods drifting to 7 on betty.

When do we think he is value ?

If they do not disqualify him then he will be back to 4.5

Wow. He still seems to be 3/1 with the Bookies.

[Doobs]

Woods drifting to 7 on betty.

When do we think he is value ?

If they do not disqualify him then he will be back to 4.5

Wow. He still seems to be 3/1 with the Bookies.

Just protecting themselves.  If they offered they'd get a huge amount of money on him at a bad price as soon as confirmed he was ok.

[Bad Beat]

 Joe doesn't seem to have put them up and I have to rush out.

 I have very little on but my two bets were Snedeker at 12/1 and Dufner at 33/1. Both great ew bets with the Magic Sign.

[TightEnd]

Dufner: recent form in majors, sub 70 yesterday. No demonstrable reason why he's up to double the price of Westwood, Snedeker, Cabrera apart from the fact he's not a major winner and not a fashionable name for the recreational punters imo

I was on pre-tournament and topped up at 33-1 earlier (was reluctant to mix with the golfing big hitters on here, but seeing as Neil mentioned him, I'll after-time....)

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 1205, Saturday April 13th

LOSS on Month = £855.36

Outstanding bets £2,018.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[horseplayer]

betfair saying woods is gone

massive drift last few minutes

[Tal]

betfair saying woods is gone

massive drift last few minutes

Is it just everyone panicking? Still can't believe they'll do it.

[Doobs]

betfair saying woods is gone

massive drift last few minutes

Is it just everyone panicking? Still can't believe they'll do it.

Could be either!  They penalised the 14 year old kid.  They can do it.

[Tal]

betfair saying woods is gone

massive drift last few minutes

Is it just everyone panicking? Still can't believe they'll do it.

Could be either!  They penalised the 14 year old kid.  They can do it.

This is Tiger Woods at the Masters, tho. Doing him for spitting in a tour event is one thing and singling out a 14 year old amateur when everyone is taking 6 hours is far easier than DQing Tiger.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0855, Saturday April 13th

We lost £55 yesterday.

£65 of wins from 2 bets were offset by £120 of losses.

In true poker player style, we have an excuse for the losses, though, as they were all on The Masters, & two were part of baskets of bets, of which we still retain good equity overall.

The losses were....

Weaver, Top Amateur, -£60

Coetzee Top Debutant, - £30

Henley, Top Debutant, -£30.

We still have Lynn as Top Debutant £10 EW @ 12/1. He currently leads, one shot ahead of Huh?

In the Outright market, we have some splendid sweats still very much in contention......

Snedeker, £25 WIN @ 25/1

Woods, £30 EW @ 6/1

Rose, £50 EW @ 22/1

McIllroy, £25 EW @ 12/1

Mickelson £25 EW @ 16/1

We also have some small-beer EW bets, the best of which is Furyk @ 70/1, details still to be uploaded.

In Cricket, we got involved in a most peculiar affair. Still unsure if we backed the right or wrong team, but somehow, we got there, & made 2 x £32.50, down to hector & maldini.  We should, of course, have listened to Dubai, who suggested we bet £1,900. What a last 2 over sweat THAT would have been......

CLIFFS - We lost some more money yesterday.

[rfgqqabc]

If Tiger gets 'd I'm retiring from sportsbetting. Doncaster now a pick'em with Bournemouth too, not the best of news. Might lay something off after this weekend but I doubt I'll be recommending anything for Fred. Sheff United down the pan as predicted but Bournemouth back from the dead. 3 games 3 wins and a happy camper here hopefully.

[Karabiner]

betfair saying woods is gone

massive drift last few minutes

Is it just everyone panicking? Still can't believe they'll do it.

Could be either!  They penalised the 14 year old kid.  They can do it.

This is Tiger Woods at the Masters, tho. Doing him for spitting in a tour event is one thing and singling out a 14 year old amateur when everyone is taking 6 hours is far easier than DQing Tiger.

Is doesn't matter who you are if you sign for an incorrect scorecard which is what his offence will be if he should have incurred another two-shot penalty for dropping his ball in the wrong place.

Roberto de Vicenzo actually "won" the Masters by one shot but signed his card for a "four" on one hole where he actually made a "three" and that had to stand as you are allowed to accidentally sign for more shots but not less.

The rules of golf are very strict when it comes to scoring.

[bobby1]

Woods drifting to 7 on betty.

When do we think he is value ?

If they do not disqualify him then he will be back to 4.5

Wow. He still seems to be 3/1 with the Bookies.

It is a totally different market tho Tony to the BF one now. If you back him on BF now and he is 'd then you lose your money.

If you bet him with the firms now and he is 'd then you will get your money back. Best way to think if it is you are betting him 'with a run' with the fixed odds firms.

 reputable firms ( well I know one) will refund stakes on him placed after the second round had completed too, using that point as the time he would no longer have been able to win the event as signing for his card means they cannot add the 2 shot pen on now. If they had investigated before he signed then they could have added the pen on then.