Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

The reason he gets stick is whilst he is obv v knowledgable his posts generally come across pretty negative, I always picture a mix between Victor Meldrew for the grumpiness and Ben Stillers character in Along Came Polly- an insurance risk calculator for a living, who knows the exact probability of being runover on the way home and the exact probability of catching various diseases when eating bar nuts. Now its obviously great to have this knowledge but imo the people that get the most out of life KNOW the information but eat the nuts anyway. Gambling.

Obviously this is pretty tongue in cheek so dont get offended, im sure u wouldnt anyway

[Tal]

We're all missing the point here. WTF is happening at Villa Park?!

[BigAdz]

We're all missing the point here. WTF is happening at Villa Park?!

Err, Sunderland need 4 more to get the draw?

[Tal]

If anyone has bet on the chess in Cuba, I've found a link:

http://torneocapablanca.inder.cu/partidas.php

Can't help much with the bits around the chess board. No habla español.

[TightEnd]

The Quarter finals of the Snooker have an odd look

Still 7 top 16 players though


Ronnie v Bingham plays Murphy v Tump

Walden v M White plays Ding V Hawkins


We have £50 Trump at 8-1 and £30 E/W Walden at 16-1

I don't think Trump is playing well enough to beat Ronnie, but you never know

The Walden bet needs a win to get us effectively 5-1+ to beat Ding and thus claim the e/w part of the bet


but first, the quarters.


current prices

Ronnie 2-1
Trump 3-1
Ding 3-1
Murphy 10-1
Hawkins 12-1
Walden 12-1
Bingham 16-1
White 20-1

It would be a surprise if it wasn't a Ronnie v Ding final, to most

Lets get a runner or two in the semis though

[tikay]

Top stuff Tighty, thanks.

For what it is worth.......our bet on Selby included, iirc, "money back if Ronnie wins".

[The Camel]

Walden's form deteriorated drastically after I placed a wager on him.

But he stumbled over the line.

[Doobs]

Walden's form deteriorated drastically after I placed a wager on him.

But he stumbled over the line.

This is pretty much my experience of any bets I have placed recently, including Walden, my money weighs a lot currently,  On the upside, I am unlikely to get any accounts closed for a while.

[JaffaCake]

If anyone if a pro who doesn't wanna give anything away or educate I completely understand that, just not sure what they're looking to get from Fred. Even if they post negatively, surely that's educational.

Anyway, I really like Phil's posts here and a man with as much experience as him on both sides of the counter is a valuable asset, pls post more Phil.

[Doobs]

The Quarter finals of the Snooker have an odd look

Still 7 top 16 players though


Ronnie v Bingham plays Murphy v Tump

Walden v M White plays Ding V Hawkins


We have £50 Trump at 8-1 and £30 E/W Walden at 16-1

I don't think Trump is playing well enough to beat Ronnie, but you never know

The Walden bet needs a win to get us effectively 5-1+ to beat Ding and thus claim the e/w part of the bet


but first, the quarters.


current prices

Ronnie 2-1
Trump 3-1
Ding 3-1
Murphy 10-1
Hawkins 12-1
Walden 12-1
Bingham 16-1
White 20-1

It would be a surprise if it wasn't a Ronnie v Ding final, to most

Lets get a runner or two in the semis though

That Walden bet thinking looks a bit strange.  I know what you mean, but just can't bring myself to think that way (Along Came Polly, yada, yada).  He is 4/5 to win the next round, so we have got a lot less than 5/1 to beat Ding (or Hawkins).  

Anyway, we shouldn't be aiming so low, lets aim for the trophy.  We just need that and Caqmel's Brighton bet to come in and we can all start chirping again.

[The Camel]

The Quarter finals of the Snooker have an odd look

Still 7 top 16 players though


Ronnie v Bingham plays Murphy v Tump

Walden v M White plays Ding V Hawkins


We have £50 Trump at 8-1 and £30 E/W Walden at 16-1

I don't think Trump is playing well enough to beat Ronnie, but you never know

The Walden bet needs a win to get us effectively 5-1+ to beat Ding and thus claim the e/w part of the bet


but first, the quarters.


current prices

Ronnie 2-1
Trump 3-1
Ding 3-1
Murphy 10-1
Hawkins 12-1
Walden 12-1
Bingham 16-1
White 20-1

It would be a surprise if it wasn't a Ronnie v Ding final, to most

Lets get a runner or two in the semis though

That Walden bet thinking looks a bit strange.  I know what you mean, but just can't bring myself to think that way (Along Came Polly, yada, yada).  He is 4/5 to win the next round, so we have got a lot less than 5/1 to beat Ding (or Hawkins).  

Anyway, we shouldn't be aiming so low, lets aim for the trophy.  We just need that and Caqmel's Brighton bet to come in and we can all start chirping again.

I figured he'd be more 4/7 against White

And he would have been if he had continued in the form he was in winning his first match and in going 9-3 up v Milkins.

[Doobs]

The Quarter finals of the Snooker have an odd look

Still 7 top 16 players though


Ronnie v Bingham plays Murphy v Tump

Walden v M White plays Ding V Hawkins


We have £50 Trump at 8-1 and £30 E/W Walden at 16-1

I don't think Trump is playing well enough to beat Ronnie, but you never know

The Walden bet needs a win to get us effectively 5-1+ to beat Ding and thus claim the e/w part of the bet


but first, the quarters.


current prices

Ronnie 2-1
Trump 3-1
Ding 3-1
Murphy 10-1
Hawkins 12-1
Walden 12-1
Bingham 16-1
White 20-1

It would be a surprise if it wasn't a Ronnie v Ding final, to most

Lets get a runner or two in the semis though

That Walden bet thinking looks a bit strange.  I know what you mean, but just can't bring myself to think that way (Along Came Polly, yada, yada).  He is 4/5 to win the next round, so we have got a lot less than 5/1 to beat Ding (or Hawkins).  

Anyway, we shouldn't be aiming so low, lets aim for the trophy.  We just need that and Caqmel's Brighton bet to come in and we can all start chirping again.

I figured he'd be more 4/7 against White

And he would have been if he had continued in the form he was in winning his first match and in going 9-3 up v Milkins.

Was thinking it looked a bit big, it was 1.8 on Betfair when I posted, guess I should should have snapped it up.  Obviously processing things slowly tonight.

He is now 1.7 and best price 4/6 at the bookies.

[77dave]

Not been on here for a while so not sure if this bet has been covered.

QPR to finish bottom @ 6-4 with stan james

19    Queens Park Rangers   35   4   13   18   29   56   25   -27   
20    Reading   35   5   10   20   37   65   25   -28   



QPR v
Arsenal
Sun 12th May 2013
QPR v
Newcastle
Sun 19th May 2013
Liverpool v

3 very tough games for QPR even though 2 are at home. Currently they are level on points with Reading and only above them by one goal difference.

Reading fixtures

Fulham v
Reading
Tue 14th May 2013
Reading v
Man City
Sun 19th May 2013
West Ham v

although still tough games id have to say Reading have the easier run in.

So i recommend QPR to finish bottom £30 at 6/4 with Stan James

[Doobs]

Not been on here for a while so not sure if this bet has been covered.

QPR to finish bottom @ 6-4 with stan james

19    Queens Park Rangers   35   4   13   18   29   56   25   -27   
20    Reading   35   5   10   20   37   65   25   -28   



QPR v
Arsenal
Sun 12th May 2013
QPR v
Newcastle
Sun 19th May 2013
Liverpool v

3 very tough games for QPR even though 2 are at home. Currently they are level on points with Reading and only above them by one goal difference.

Reading fixtures

Fulham v
Reading
Tue 14th May 2013
Reading v
Man City
Sun 19th May 2013
West Ham v

although still tough games id have to say Reading have the easier run in.

So i recommend QPR to finish bottom £30 at 6/4 with Stan James

Newcastle at home must be the easiest game of the 6 and most likely win?? So it is one easier game vs 2 middling ones (Fulham away and West Ham away).   

Thread can't get on with Stan James, so 11/8 is best. 

[redarmi]

To be fair he did put up a bet late at night on Gotze going to Munich.

Although it had been announced he had signed , and I think it was with Paddy Power (might be wrong) so the 83pence everyone could have had at 4/1 would have just about bought a Big Mac, but it would have been a risk free Big Mac.

ha, just because I don't give away free bets all the time doesn't mean I never have bets. Just not really wise to give them away for free is it?

The problem with this life view is that it completely ignores what I hear poker players calling the metagame.  I try and contribute a lot to Fred.  I get nothing financial in return and, you could argue, it is slightly -EV to educate people and have what you are doing out there so why do I do it?  Firstly, I get a lot out of blonde and the community here.  It has helped my poker game and it is just generally a nice and pleasant place to come.  Such communities only work if people are willing to give as well as receive.  Sure there will always be people that take advantage of systems like this in the same way as there are people who don't tip because "you don't have to" or people that download movies at filesharing sites but never upload them.  The nature of the community is such that we can't stop that and probably wouldn't but it is a bit sad.  Secondly, you will find that if you do contribute here then over time you do get equity out of it.  I will give you three examples off the top of my head.  Firstly, there is a poster here who has made me a standing offer to use his 365 account if I need to.  Secondly, last week I had been asked to put some money on a horse that had been lined up for a big gamble.  I obviously have some outs of my own but I needed to do this in small manageable chunks so I pm'ed a bunch of people on here to see if they would be willing to put some small bets on for me and that way I was able to get better prices and more volume than I would have been able to normally.  In return, they were able to have a small bet themselves on a horse at a double figure price that went off at 5/2.  Win win.   Finally, I was trying to back a dog last week and asked a fellow blonde if he could help me back the dog at 2/1.  He told me he had already backed it at 9/4 and I could have some of that even though the price went hours ago.  He didn't need to but I like to think he knows if the situation was reversed I would do similar.

So you see that if you help people you get things back.  Maybe you don't want anything back and are doing just fine on your own but, honestly, I find it hard to believe that in terms of life EV it is the best route.