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[Ironside]

On face value I am struggling to see why Norwich are underdogs at home to Southampton? 

cause southampton players are the best in the world and norwich are all tractor drivers?

[JaffaCake]

Norwich will be fighting relegation this season, Saints should be mid-table+ comfortably.

One squad looks very strong, the other doesn't.

Personally think the prices are fine.

U state this like it's fact Dom. It isn't. I don't think Norwich are in any danger of going down or Southampton are in any danger of finishing above mid-table. Wanna have a bet, I'll take Norwich to stay up and Southampton to finish bottom half, if either doesn't happen it's a push, if both don't happen u win

It's all about opinions, I state it to be true, you don't.

I believe that the prices back up my somewhat vague point over where the sides should finish respectively.

Norwich are a general 3-1 shot to go down and certainly the bookies certainly seem to agree that they will struggle.

Southampton are an even money shot to be top ten+, while they are an 18-1 shot to go down.


In regards to your bet offer,

Norwich stay up, Saints outside top ten=you win.

Norwich go down, Saints outside top ten+Norwich stay up, Saints in top ten=push,

Norwich go down, Saints in top ten-I win.


I'd be mad to give you even money when effectively Norwich are a 1-3 shot to stay up and Southampton are evens not to finish top half, thus your bet effectively is an 11-8 shot*.

However, Norwich@3-1 and Saints@evens is a 7-1* punt and would be much the worst of it here.


Still would be happy to bet both as singles with you, even though as I stated originally I believe Norwich will be fighting relegation, not ness be relegated.

Thus, out of the 2 bets I much prefer Southampton to be top ten.

Say £100 Southampton to finish top ten, and Norwich to go down £50@3-1.

Up to you mate, let us know.


*Yep I know these bets are related and we could not do them as pure doubles.

It is all about opinions, there is no fact to state. I didn't state anything to be untrue, because I don't know, all I give is an opinion.

I'm not interested in laying u odds, if u think (actully, know, seeing as it's stated as fact) they'll be in the relegation battle I thought you'd like a bet. If I wanted to back Southampton at evens to finish bottom half those lovely people at Ladbrokes will accommodate me, I thought as u think their minimum is mid table u might have  stronger feeling than the market price.

If someone turns up and says I think this is a bad price, replying with something stated as fact is unhelpful, unless it's a fact.

If I find Chelsea to be champions at 5/1 and say I think this is a good price, it's a wind up if someone replies saying 'Man United are going to win the league'. Really? That's effectively what your reply was.

[Ironside]

looking at the cardiff match i noticed 365 is offering nearly same price as betfair on a cardiff win
bet victor and ladbrookes are offering better price on the draw than betfair
and corals offering a better price on everton than betfair

with some of the bookies as low as 3.0 on a cardiff win and 365 and befair up around 3.5
is there any value anywhere in that market?

personally i like the draw at 3.4

btw this a question not a recommendation or anything alone those lines

[Nico29]

Jeff here's my opinion on the whole thing.


What is a fact is that the bookies (of whom's market for Norwich v Southampton provoked the debate) have placed Norwich in the relegation battle by pricing them at a general 3-1.

What is also a fact is that Southampton are regarded to be battling for mid table+ by the market due to their evens price.

This was what I was alluding to in my OP. As adults I thought we could all read between the lines, I didn't know I had to quote everything.

What is my opinion is that Southampton will achieve mid table+ and are somewhat small value at even money.

What is my opinion is that Norwich are set to struggle as their price suggests they will, and that at 3-1 their price is fair imo.

Maybe I should put 'think' next to every opinion I state just to be clear.

Regarding the original bet you offered, why would I take such bad value for myself, whilst giving you such a good bet?

In terms of how my first post read like a factual statement, well people often phrase their opinions like that, doesn't mean it's a fact, just that maybe they believe it to be such.

I actually don't think there is a huge amount of juice left in either price now anyway and just think the market has it right.

Seeing as you disagree with both markets perception so much you are the lucky one as you therefore would have the all important value.

[redarmi]

I think the thing about this Norwich game is that there are only two realistic scenarios. 

The first, and most likely, is that the prices are about right.  Southampton are clearly a hype team but with some reasoning behind it.  They are currently priced as a top half team.  This is pretty much as high as they can get.  Realistically there are probably 12/13 spots they could finish in the league.  Anywhere from eighth to the second relegation spot.  They are priced in this game as though they will finish 8th-10th AND Norwich will finish in the bottom 5-6.  If they were both to finish in the bottom half, non relegation zone then Norwich would be good value for this game.  This doesn't seem out of the question to me at all so the second scenario which is that Norwich are value seems like it might be possible and there is a chance that they could look very good value.  I cannot see any possible scenario where Southampton are value for this game unless we realistically think they are up there with Liverpool, Spurs and Everton.

[Ironside]

I think the thing about this Norwich game is that there are only two realistic scenarios. 

The first, and most likely, is that the prices are about right.  Southampton are clearly a hype team but with some reasoning behind it.  They are currently priced as a top half team.  This is pretty much as high as they can get.  Realistically there are probably 12/13 spots they could finish in the league.  Anywhere from eighth to the second relegation spot.  They are priced in this game as though they will finish 8th-10th AND Norwich will finish in the bottom 5-6.  If they were both to finish in the bottom half, non relegation zone then Norwich would be good value for this game.  This doesn't seem out of the question to me at all so the second scenario which is that Norwich are value seems like it might be possible and there is a chance that they could look very good value.  I cannot see any possible scenario where Southampton are value for this game unless we realistically think they are up there with Liverpool, Spurs and Everton.

speaking with my saints tinted specs on i think we could be just behind liverpool this season on a par with everton
i think spurs will finish well ahead of liverpool

[Nico29]

I think the thing about this Norwich game is that there are only two realistic scenarios. 

The first, and most likely, is that the prices are about right.  Southampton are clearly a hype team but with some reasoning behind it.  They are currently priced as a top half team.  This is pretty much as high as they can get.  Realistically there are probably 12/13 spots they could finish in the league.  Anywhere from eighth to the second relegation spot.  They are priced in this game as though they will finish 8th-10th AND Norwich will finish in the bottom 5-6.  If they were both to finish in the bottom half, non relegation zone then Norwich would be good value for this game.  This doesn't seem out of the question to me at all so the second scenario which is that Norwich are value seems like it might be possible and there is a chance that they could look very good value.  I cannot see any possible scenario where Southampton are value for this game unless we realistically think they are up there with Liverpool, Spurs and Everton.

Good post though I'm not sure they have to be in the Liverpool, Spurs group, though def agree regarding Everton.

Personally i'd expect Spurs/Liverpool to be evens or less away to Norwich.

The top 6 in the division are a world away in the outright betting, for example- it jumps from Liverpool@22's to Everton@500's.

And for top 6 it jumps from Liverpool@1-4 to Everton@9-2.

My view is that i'd rather back Southampton@12-1 here than Everton@9-2.

Feel that side is heading one way this season and it's not into Europe.

Weren't Everton about 5-4/11/8 the other week away to Norwich?

Therefore I don't think 13-8 is a terrible price away to a team that will be happy imo to finish 4th from bottom.

My view on the whole Southampton thing is that they are spending some serious money at that club and assembling quite a squad.

Outside of the top 6 I don't see anyone really doing that, certainly not in the £12m/£15m per player areas.

My worry with them is that defensively they still seem a little short compared to the strengths in midfield and attack.

[Nico29]

Really glad this all came up actually.

Been looking for ways to oppose Everton whilst also backing teams like Southampton this season.

Just found the w/o big 6 market.

Have backed Southampton@7-1 and am looking for one or two more.

Assuming Baines and Fellani are leaving is somewhat important to this market I suppose, but my line of thinking is that Moyes massively over achieved at that club and that Martinez could take time to find his feet.

[Ironside]

Really glad this all came up actually.

Been looking for ways to oppose Everton whilst also backing teams like Southampton this season.

Just found the w/o big 6 market.

Have backed Southampton@7-1 and am looking for one or two more.

Assuming Baines and Fellani are leaving is somewhat important to this market I suppose, but my line of thinking is that Moyes massively over achieved at that club and that Martinez could take time to find his feet.

i posted about the W/O top 6 market about 2 weeks ago was getting offer EW odds for 3 spots too so just needing too finish in top 9
but as fred was on saints too be relegated it had too be ignored

[McGlashan]

Really glad this all came up actually.

Been looking for ways to oppose Everton whilst also backing teams like Southampton this season.

Just found the w/o big 6 market.

Have backed Southampton@7-1 and am looking for one or two more.

Assuming Baines and Fellani are leaving is somewhat important to this market I suppose, but my line of thinking is that Moyes massively over achieved at that club and that Martinez could take time to find his feet.

iirc it was Ironside I mentioned this to before, it's a cracking bet if you fancy opposing the short priced favourite that is Everton. If you can get on e/w at Bet365 paying 1/4odds on 3 places then it might pay a much better price on a top 9 finish than a straight top 10 bet.

[TightEnd]

Really glad this all came up actually.

Been looking for ways to oppose Everton whilst also backing teams like Southampton this season.

Just found the w/o big 6 market.

Have backed Southampton@7-1 and am looking for one or two more.

Assuming Baines and Fellani are leaving is somewhat important to this market I suppose, but my line of thinking is that Moyes massively over achieved at that club and that Martinez could take time to find his feet.

i posted about the W/O top 6 market about 2 weeks ago was getting offer EW odds for 3 spots too so just needing too finish in top 9
but as fred was on saints too be relegated it had too be ignored

Its a good bet though

Should get a great run for your money.

[Ironside]

Really glad this all came up actually.

Been looking for ways to oppose Everton whilst also backing teams like Southampton this season.

Just found the w/o big 6 market.

Have backed Southampton@7-1 and am looking for one or two more.

Assuming Baines and Fellani are leaving is somewhat important to this market I suppose, but my line of thinking is that Moyes massively over achieved at that club and that Martinez could take time to find his feet.

iirc it was Ironside I mentioned this to before, it's a cracking bet if you fancy opposing the short priced favourite that is Everton. If you can get on e/w at Bet365 paying 1/4odds on 3 places then it might pay a much better price on a top 9 finish than a straight top 10 bet.

yeah at time i posted you were getting 5/2 or 2/1 for top 9 (i cant remember) with the boost of the win bet too with only evens for top 10

[BigAdz]

Do we have any bets on the Footy tonight or rec's

The 9/2 on Chelski with Hills looks massive for a one off, but what was the trend of views if anyone can help please, before I dive in?

[Ironside]

Do we have any bets on the Footy tonight or rec's

The 9/2 on Chelski with Hills looks massive for a one off, but what was the trend of views if anyone can help please, before I dive in?

cant see chelski taking that serious didnt they get beat 5-0 last season?
maybe they will want too put up a better show this year especially with the special one back in the saddle i dont fancy 9/2 though against munich

[JaffaCake]

Schurrrrrrrle is 23-1 on Betty FGS, where the fk he playin, in goal?!