Tips for Tikay

[Longy]

Despite a lot of what seemed to be reasonable signings, we have been pretty poor in the opening 2 games imo. Everton dominated possession and the result slightly flattered us, then we were truly terrible at Hull last week.

I was very worried at the end of last season about our prospects this year and I am hoping our slow start isn't indictitive of that.

Having said that I am going to the game tomorrow so hopefully the 2-1 is monster value!

[claypole]

Southampton are Trigg's NAP for the weekend football!

max on Norwich DnB then

[DungBeetle]

Regarding Liverpool - I agree and I've always treated Liverpool as the same phenomenen as England at world cups (ie. too short in general).  But they do seem to have improved a bit, and that is before Suarez returns, and from a small sample they are grinding narrow wins whereas last year they would draw.  They are likely still going off too short but I'm giving them a watching brief at the moment.

Watford have a great squad, and I think this class will tell when the injuries start hitting later in the year.  I expect them to stay on the pace and then start putting a good run together in the new year.

2 areas of concern remain:

1) The defence.  Cassetti unfortunately now a liability at centre back.  I don't rate Brown so far and Doyley is solid but unspectacular.  Belkalem and Hoban will be the solutions alonside Angella but one isn't up to match fitness yet and the other is a long term injury from last year.  I hope we get another centre back in before the window shuts but I don't get the impression that will happen from reading all the local press/forums.
2) Replacing Vydra goals.  Acuna and Fabbrini have shown good sparks so far but until they are fully acclimatised to Championship footie it is too early to pass judgement.  Forestieri remains one of my favourite players, but he hasn't stepped up to the plate in Vydra's absence, despite starting the first few games and has now lost his place to Fabbrini.  Keeping Deeney is key, as he holds the entire attack together.

[Marky147]

Southampton are Trigg's NAP for the weekend football!

max on Norwich DnB then

[Nico29]

Norwich will be fighting relegation this season, Saints should be mid-table+ comfortably.

One squad looks very strong, the other doesn't.

Personally think the prices are fine.

[DungBeetle]

Just adding to Tighty's post, again from a small sample, but it feels like Sturridge has come on significantly over the off season.  From an England perspective I'd rather he was up front than Welbeck at the moment.

[Marky147]

Southampton are Trigg's NAP for the weekend football!

On the Podcast?

I've not listened to the latest one yet.

For some reason, setting aside half an hour to listen to anything is a bit of a trial for me. If it were in a written version, I'd not miss a word, trust me.

It was on the new one, think it was Wednesday night it went up.

They had Brent on too, who gave a few nice lower league bets for the weekend.

Lil' Dave's nap was Newcastle @ 15/13, but he would take 4/7 and hopefully punish the nits

[DungBeetle]

After their Hull display I may be wrong, but I like Norwich this year.  They were never really in danger of going down last season, and have added Hooper, Van Wolfswinkel, Fer, Elmander and Redmond.   They've lost Holt, but the squad feels like an upgrade to me.

[JaffaCake]

Norwich will be fighting relegation this season, Saints should be mid-table+ comfortably.

One squad looks very strong, the other doesn't.

Personally think the prices are fine.

U state this like it's fact Dom. It isn't. I don't think Norwich are in any danger of going down or Southampton are in any danger of finishing above mid-table. Wanna have a bet, I'll take Norwich to stay up and Southampton to finish bottom half, if either doesn't happen it's a push, if both don't happen u win

[bobby1]

I think Fred needs to be betting more on Tighty's cricket stuff Tony (and probably other stuff too) given the cricket work he is doing there can't be many better placed to judge some of those side markets and specials.

 

[tikay]

I think Fred needs to be betting more on Tighty's cricket stuff Tony (and probably other stuff too) given the cricket work he is doing there can't be many better placed to judge some of those side markets and specials.

 

He is awesome at cricket, yesterday was typical. We have other cricket experts too, not the least being gherkin, & several others.

We are well served in so many sports as it turns out, what a thing this thread is. We really ought to make more money than we do, for sure, although there will always be a "social & fun" aspect, which has a small financial cost. 

So yes, I think the time has come to start betting bigger stakes &/or have more bets. The problem with the latter is that we would eventually revert to the mean. More bets is likely to = lesser quality. The margins are very thin.

[Doobs]

I find this Hills offer really odd.  I just popped in again and they are repeating it at Chester.

The obvious 2 to back are  Bow Creek in the 2.00 pm at 10/11 and Nezar in the 4.05 at 8/13.  The latter is 15 pound clear on handicap, and the added value is too good to miss, so I think we can ignore the preference for the low draw here.  So £25 each on Hills mobile.

You could take the free bet on Adam Scott now.  He is best 12/1 with them currently.

[DungBeetle]

The problem with bigger stakes is will it not invalidate the previous strong track record (as our total return will be so dependent on how the bigger bets do) and make historical comparisons difficult?  Not to mention you will get shut down by bookies quicker.

[bobby1]

The problem with bigger stakes is will it not invalidate the previous strong track record (as our total return will be so dependent on how the bigger bets do) and make historical comparisons difficult?  Not to mention you will get shut down by bookies quicker.

With regards to Tighty's cricket in particular he is better positioned at times to judge markets/conditions than the people setting the lines. Obv yesterday was the nut example but in general his knowledge is going to outweigh the knowledge of the combined copying of markets from oddschecker  and usually the first line out becomes the standard line a lot of the time.

[tikay]

The problem with bigger stakes is will it not invalidate the previous strong track record (as our total return will be so dependent on how the bigger bets do) and make historical comparisons difficult?  Not to mention you will get shut down by bookies quicker.

Well......

redarmi suggested we should worry LESS about ROI, & more about making more money. So we could make more money with a lesser ROI. Which would be.....good. I think.

Historical comparisons? Not really more difficult, no. We measure ROI as our yardstick at present. There is no reason why we should not use "total profit" as the default.

Shut down quicker? Yes, probably. But we are going to be Restricted or closed by them all eventually, no? I tried for a medium sized bet on Sporting Bet this week, & got Restricted. Another one on the ever-growing list. Seems inevitable.

Better to get closed down, because we are profitable, then keep our accounts & lose money.

Anyway, when that happens, there is a Plan B - I know a guy that has a whole bunch of "clean" (ice-cream) Accounts, he'll take over.