Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Heading out to Malahide cricket ground shortly to cheer Ireland on against a visiting England/ex-Ireland side. Obviously keen to get a few bets on!

See PP has MBS on top team runscorer markets, money back (as cash) if Eoin Morgan top scores for England. Morgan best price 11/2 to do that, so guessing we get money back around 15% of the time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-australia/odi-series/ireland-v-england/top-england-batsman
&
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-australia/odi-series/ireland-v-england/top-ireland-batsman

For us, PP best or joint best on the O'Brien brothers only. Niall 5/1 & Kev 13/2. I've backed both for paddymax, €20 & €15.
For the visitors, Ballance & Bopara look the MBS bets. Got €20 & €13 on them, respectively.

Suggest Fred does similar, subject to approval from Team Maths or Team Elders.

Anyone got any suggestions for any other markets? It's on Sky Sports so others may fancy an interest bet or 2 for the day's viewing.

Weather forecast last time I looked, FWIW, was about as good as it gets around here this time of year.
19 celsius & "0% chance of precipitation". Live in city centre, less than 20k from ground. Gorgeous sunny morning, let's make some money!

Thanks KP.

Elders & Cricket Experts views, please?

KP, did you know that  Boyd Rankin (England) could open the bowling to Ed Joyce (Ireland), & that in 2007 Cricket World Cup Rankin (Ireland) opened to Joyce (England)?

I didn't know that half an hour ago, but I'll be trotting it out at least a few times during the day. One of cricket's more interesting facts. And one of very few cricket facts I know!

Yes yes, absolutely.

[superwomble]

Did Fred get on Mata to Man U or was that just a rec?

No, we were not on.

Good swerve then!

[Bad Beat]

 Could never bet Denver here Tighty, don't think I'd rush to take -7.5 at 10/11 so I guess I should take +9.5.

 Pinny are less than 4/5 and Coral are 4/5.

 May as well wait. Mostly the later money will be for Denver.

 Thursday night was under night last year. A lot of that is the short week stuff though so that doesn't apply here. 48 looks pretty solid.

[BigAdz]

Tal, you disappoint me muchly.

That is all.

Tal building quite a portfolio of expertise.

Chess
Ballroom Dancing
And, lol, Spurs...

[tikay]

Nice one Tighty.

Was going to put a piece up last night about Jordan Speith last night, but felt it was out of context.

The lad is turning into a bit of a player, both spectacular and becoming more reliable.

He has just turned 20 and I think until the end of the year or until his form slumps, he should be on the TFT roster each week at best available odds.

I hate the saying, the next Tiger, but if there is one, he is it and we should get in now methinks.

I think Tighty is in, any other thoughts?

He does appear to be the real deal, though Fred has missed most of the implied value by now, but no probs in following him for a while. 

I don't think there is a big PGA Event this weekend, think it is a rest week for most of them.

We had a bad weekend on the Golf, but I'm quite relaxed about it, Golf betting is very high variance, & we have to look at the long run.

I did not much enjoy so many players shooting such low scores this weekend, bit of a mockery really, imo.

[TightEnd]

significant ones

Pete Carroll has covered 15 of 18 as an underdog.

- Seattle were under-rated for a long time, and improved quickly. Very good coach, coaching a very good roster for a team with a huge home advantage.

Patriots have covered only 6 of last 23 as double digit favorite.

NFL is a league where competitive balance is encouraged. Need a very good reason to take a double digit spread. Pats often priced off the team they were4-5 years ago.

2003 was the last time the team with the best record in the NFL (or tied for the best record) won the Super Bowl.

- Because once you reach the play-offs its about who is "hot" at that point not who was hot in October and November.

Jeff Fisher is 86-53 ATS (62%) in his coaching career as an underdog.

Clearly significant, likely to be significant this year as the Rams are a team with a lot of young talent particularly on defense, albeit in a nasty division

Last 3 seasons: the underdog has covered 73% of Dallas games (35-13 ATS)

Dallas routinely over-bet, sometimes favourite when they shouldn't be

Mike Shanahan: 6-22 ATS as a home favorite last 28 games

Amazing!

Cowboys/Eagles: Underdog covered 21 of 29 in this series.
Eagles/Giants: Underdog 13-3 in this series.

Anyone can beat anyone in the NFC East. Will be the same this year, avoid favourites!


Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-33 against the spread.

Because the Steelers defense routinely beats the snot out of teams, leaving them below par the week after

[Marky147]

Did Fred get on Mata to Man U or was that just a rec?

No, we were not on.

Good swerve then!

Was thinking I had missed something huge for a second...

[Tal]

Could never bet Denver here Tighty, don't think I'd rush to take -7.5 at 10/11 so I guess I should take +9.5.

 Pinny are less than 4/5 and Coral are 4/5.

 May as well wait. Mostly the later money will be for Denver.

 Thursday night was under night last year. A lot of that is the short week stuff though so that doesn't apply here. 48 looks pretty solid.

This interests me. Against the superbowl champions? Why wouldn't there be late money for Baltimore, as the punters see the defending champs with a big spread? Is it just a loyalty thing?

[TightEnd]

Could never bet Denver here Tighty, don't think I'd rush to take -7.5 at 10/11 so I guess I should take +9.5.

 Pinny are less than 4/5 and Coral are 4/5.

 May as well wait. Mostly the later money will be for Denver.

 Thursday night was under night last year. A lot of that is the short week stuff though so that doesn't apply here. 48 looks pretty solid.

Yes, will bookmark for Thursday.

[Tal]

Tal, you disappoint me muchly.

That is all.

Tal building quite a portfolio of expertise.

Chess
Ballroom Dancing
And, lol, Spurs...

This has been my range for some time, sir.

[tikay]

Could never bet Denver here Tighty, don't think I'd rush to take -7.5 at 10/11 so I guess I should take +9.5.

 Pinny are less than 4/5 and Coral are 4/5.

 May as well wait. Mostly the later money will be for Denver.

 Thursday night was under night last year. A lot of that is the short week stuff though so that doesn't apply here. 48 looks pretty solid.

Yes, will bookmark for Thursday.

If we are planning to have NFL bets for Thursday evening, please Post by 6pm Thursday latest, am working Thursday evening.

TY

[TightEnd]

Could never bet Denver here Tighty, don't think I'd rush to take -7.5 at 10/11 so I guess I should take +9.5.

 Pinny are less than 4/5 and Coral are 4/5.

 May as well wait. Mostly the later money will be for Denver.

 Thursday night was under night last year. A lot of that is the short week stuff though so that doesn't apply here. 48 looks pretty solid.

This interests me. Against the superbowl champions? Why wouldn't there be late money for Baltimore, as the punters see the defending champs with a big spread? Is it just a loyalty thing?

Hotdog and Beer punters back the favourite late on, typically, and especially for TNF, SNF, MNF ie where there is one game on telvised nationally

[Chompy]

There's always a ringer on Strictly, half an hour of research and watching their reveal videos came up with this story via twitter about Corrie actress Natalie Gumede. You can count out half the field in these things, noone over 35 is gonna win, and seems this girl has a massive headstart. I'm backed her at 8/1 tonight for a hundo, think Fred should do the same. Maybe half that if you need to wait for lord chompy of reality tv-land to confirm this seems a good thing.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/strictly-come-dancing-natalie-gumede-2246729?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Incidentally, while I'm a big fan of Rachel Riley, she admits to being a terrible dancer who had to hire someone to get her through her first dance at her wedding so wouldn't fancy backing her as favourite. Peter Crouch's missus is right up there in the betting but didn't find anything saying she could dance. Same with all the boys, some nobody from Hollyoaks with a double barreled name fits the profile to win these things but he reckons he can't dance either. No big sports names like Louis Smith post 2012 or boy banders like Harry Judd this year. All aboard the Gumede express!

I've never watched a minute of this dancing thing, but this sounds like it should be an all-in moment? If it's just about who's the best dancerer? Is it as simple as that? Will voters be fumming that she's a trained dancer? If not I'm going in at 7/1 before the price collapses.

Six of the first seven in the betting are women, the first man being Ben Cohen at 10/1. Then it's 16/ bar, so that wouldn't be an offputter.

I was hoping Diane Youdale, aka Jet from Gladiators, would be on the show, but she ain't.

[BigAdz]

Nice one Tighty.

Was going to put a piece up last night about Jordan Speith last night, but felt it was out of context.

The lad is turning into a bit of a player, both spectacular and becoming more reliable.

He has just turned 20 and I think until the end of the year or until his form slumps, he should be on the TFT roster each week at best available odds.

I hate the saying, the next Tiger, but if there is one, he is it and we should get in now methinks.

I think Tighty is in, any other thoughts?

He does appear to be the real deal, though Fred has missed most of the implied value by now, but no probs in following him for a while. 

I don't think there is a big PGA Event this weekend, think it is a rest week for most of them.

We had a bad weekend on the Golf, but I'm quite relaxed about it, Golf betting is very high variance, & we have to look at the long run.

I did not much enjoy so many players shooting such low scores this weekend, bit of a mockery really, imo.

Sorry, I did forget to put we need a price caveat, and wanted thoughts on what we settle at, say min 33s?

He isn't a player we can currently apply the usual stats to about type of course/previous form/type of event, which should all be worth a few points in our favour as everyone is setting the line pretty blind.

[TightEnd]

There's always a ringer on Strictly, half an hour of research and watching their reveal videos came up with this story via twitter about Corrie actress Natalie Gumede. You can count out half the field in these things, noone over 35 is gonna win, and seems this girl has a massive headstart. I'm backed her at 8/1 tonight for a hundo, think Fred should do the same. Maybe half that if you need to wait for lord chompy of reality tv-land to confirm this seems a good thing.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/strictly-come-dancing-natalie-gumede-2246729?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Incidentally, while I'm a big fan of Rachel Riley, she admits to being a terrible dancer who had to hire someone to get her through her first dance at her wedding so wouldn't fancy backing her as favourite. Peter Crouch's missus is right up there in the betting but didn't find anything saying she could dance. Same with all the boys, some nobody from Hollyoaks with a double barreled name fits the profile to win these things but he reckons he can't dance either. No big sports names like Louis Smith post 2012 or boy banders like Harry Judd this year. All aboard the Gumede express!

I've never watched a minute of this dancing thing, but this sounds like it should be an all-in moment? If it's just about who's the best dancerer? Is it as simple as that? Will voters be fumming that she's a trained dancer? If not I'm going in at 7/1 before the price collapses.

Six of the first seven in the betting are women, the first man being Ben Cohen at 10/1. Then it's 16/ bar, so that wouldn't be an offputter.

I was hoping Diane Youdale, aka Jet from Gladiators, would be on the show, but she ain't.

viewers can take against trained dancers, but more important is to appear not to want it too much

for example Gabby Logan went on, clearly a top 3 contestant that series, but wanted it so bad and said so so publically that the voters threw her out very early. She looked crushed but the viewers loved it. Schadenfraude counts, or it would if the viewers knew why they were voting her out

Denise Van O was the subject of a campaign against her but because she had fun, didn't take herself too seriously she made it to the final 3

This Natalie girl will be fine if she gives it "I am here to have fun, I don't expect to win" consistently

It is true that the voting demographic is female, and they want male totty in but I reckon with Riley, Reid and Clancy in this year there will be a more balanced demographic.

If the actor Patrick Robinson can dance (actor, performer, rhythm, has an athletic body etc etc) then he will be the man to watch