Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

It is more that in bad weather and a tight game the incidence of drop goals goes up compared to open games in good weather

I think it might be very close, obviously.

Sorry for not coming back earlier, was busy.  Farrell has scored one drop goal in 16 games for England.  I had a quick look through the stats on the Australians and I don't think any of them are prolific either.  So in a normal game you might expect 1 drop goal 1 time in 8?? 

I am not a big follower of Rugby Union, but I am guessing that if you looked at the fixtures that England and Australia play you could probably make a case that half of them look like they could be close games in advance.  So even if you assume nobody ever drops a goal in an uneven game, you aren't going to get a drop goal in the close games between these nations any more than 1 in 4.

If we are only offered 7/4, we would need to be reasonably confident we are 6/4 or so to hit a drop goal.  I just can't see how we get there.  I could be missing something, as there may well be an Aussie I don't know about who hits drop goals for fun in club games or something.  That isn't part of the argument though, so to me this just looks a bet that is bad value. 

Of course it is inevitable now, he pings one in the last minute.

This is the crux of that one, there have to be an average 2 evey 3 games for it to be profitable I think.

But as you say, Tighty sems to have remarkable insight with these things, & if I swerve it, it will inevitably sail over.....

[tikay]

Mariota and oregon have a bye this weekend ahead of the biggest game of the season @5. Stanford next Thursday night.

Texas A&M might as well have a bye as they host UTEP, which I think stands for University of Texas El Paso.

Next Thursday it is then, thanks for the Update.

[tikay]

Free bet with William Hill to use by tomorrow

If there are no better suggestions, and to save a last minute panic tomorrow...

England v Australia Rugby tomorrow, first of the Autumn Internationals

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-australia/half-time-full-time

England Hallf Time, Australia Full Time at 8-1 William Hill


I am also (bad weather, Farrell will kick most of England's points, unproven side, likely to be close) a fan of

- The draw at 22-1 Boylesports or 23 Betfair
- A drop goal at 7/4 Paddy Power
- No home try scorer 100-30 Ladbrokes

I just scratch my head at some of the England selections and don't see the selection as being that coherent

If we don't want to back Our Conor for the Champion, the half time/full time looks a good as any.  Have we definitely lost that one from last week?
Not sure on why people here are fans of drop goal bets.  Farell has one in sixteen matches, so unless the Aussies are prolific I can't see 7/4 to be value.  

There is only ONE Free Bet on my Wm Hill Account, so I guess so, yes.

I'll use it for the England-Australia Drop Goal HT-FT bet, & we can back Our Conor with another Free Bet in due course, plenty of time for that one.

Did you see the "Offers" Post by Tal? (Wm Hill & Ladbrokes). Anything of interest today?

[tikay]

Free bet with William Hill to use by tomorrow

If there are no better suggestions, and to save a last minute panic tomorrow...

England v Australia Rugby tomorrow, first of the Autumn Internationals

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-australia/half-time-full-time

England Hallf Time, Australia Full Time at 8-1 William Hill


I am also (bad weather, Farrell will kick most of England's points, unproven side, likely to be close) a fan of

- The draw at 22-1 Boylesports or 23 Betfair
- A drop goal at 7/4 Paddy Power
- No home try scorer 100-30 Ladbrokes

I just scratch my head at some of the England selections and don't see the selection as being that coherent

Thanks Rich.

We have used the Wm Hill Free Bet for the HT-FT bet, as suggested.

Will look at the others shortly.

FREE BET PLACED

[tikay]

Racing Post app offers through Hills and Laddies:


Free bet offers for Friday and Saturday

Friday offers:

Ladbrokes: Breeders’ Cup - FREE bet if you back a winner at 4-1 or greater.
Hills: Bet £10 get £30 (new customers only) - QUOTE RPA10

Saturday offers:

William Hill: All C4 races: money back if your horse is 2nd

1:50    WET    OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y  
2:10    ASC    Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f  
2:30    DRO    JNwine.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) 3m CH4
2:45    ASC    William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m
3:00    WET    bet365 Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f
3:20    ASC    United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m
3:35    WET    bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f


Ladbrokes: All Ascot & Breeders’ Cup races: FREE bet if you back a winner at 4-1 or greater

Thanks Posh Bloke.

BUMPED for Doobs & others.

[Doobs]

Racing Post app offers through Hills and Laddies:


Free bet offers for Friday and Saturday

Friday offers:

Ladbrokes: Breeders’ Cup - FREE bet if you back a winner at 4-1 or greater.
Hills: Bet £10 get £30 (new customers only) - QUOTE RPA10

Saturday offers:

William Hill: All C4 races: money back if your horse is 2nd

1:50    WET    OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y  
2:10    ASC    Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f  
2:30    DRO    JNwine.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) 3m CH4
2:45    ASC    William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m
3:00    WET    bet365 Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f
3:20    ASC    United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m
3:35    WET    bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f


Ladbrokes: All Ascot & Breeders’ Cup races: FREE bet if you back a winner at 4-1 or greater

Should bet Tidal Bay in the 3.00 at Wetherby and Long Run in the 3.35 £25 Hills Mobile.  There might be others but am out again in 5 mins.

[tikay]

Racing Post app offers through Hills and Laddies:


Free bet offers for Friday and Saturday

Friday offers:

Ladbrokes: Breeders’ Cup - FREE bet if you back a winner at 4-1 or greater.
Hills: Bet £10 get £30 (new customers only) - QUOTE RPA10

Saturday offers:

William Hill: All C4 races: money back if your horse is 2nd

1:50    WET    OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y  
2:10    ASC    Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f  
2:30    DRO    JNwine.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) 3m CH4
2:45    ASC    William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m
3:00    WET    bet365 Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f
3:20    ASC    United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m
3:35    WET    bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f


Ladbrokes: All Ascot & Breeders’ Cup races: FREE bet if you back a winner at 4-1 or greater

Should bet Tidal Bay in the 3.00 at Wetherby and Long Run in the 3.35 £25 Hills Mobile.  There might be others but am out again in 5 mins.

Thanks.

Got 15/8 & 6/5 respectively.

TWO BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Free bet with William Hill to use by tomorrow

If there are no better suggestions, and to save a last minute panic tomorrow...

England v Australia Rugby tomorrow, first of the Autumn Internationals

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-australia/half-time-full-time

England Hallf Time, Australia Full Time at 8-1 William Hill


I am also (bad weather, Farrell will kick most of England's points, unproven side, likely to be close) a fan of

- The draw at 22-1 Boylesports or 23 Betfair
- A drop goal at 7/4 Paddy Power
- No home try scorer 100-30 Ladbrokes

I just scratch my head at some of the England selections and don't see the selection as being that coherent

Two bets placed, as enboldened.

Will await Tighty's further views on the Drop Goal before placing that one.

TWO BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Free bet with William Hill to use by tomorrow

If there are no better suggestions, and to save a last minute panic tomorrow...

England v Australia Rugby tomorrow, first of the Autumn Internationals

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-australia/half-time-full-time

England Hallf Time, Australia Full Time at 8-1 William Hill


I am also (bad weather, Farrell will kick most of England's points, unproven side, likely to be close) a fan of

- The draw at 22-1 Boylesports or 23 Betfair
- A drop goal at 7/4 Paddy Power
- No home try scorer 100-30 Ladbrokes

I just scratch my head at some of the England selections and don't see the selection as being that coherent

Not put up a bet on here for ages.

I like 2 3 ball picks on the golf.

Fedez Castano and Keegan Bradley to win their 3 balls.

Both outsiders in their 3 balls when i think they should both be favs. I like Bradley as an outirght ew punt to, fully expect two low rounds with his monster power under control on this hard/long course.

Could double the 3 balls or just take Bradley in his 3 ball.

Morning.

I struggled to find this one, it does not name the Bookie or the target price.....but then I realised this was intended to be BEFORE Round Three, which has now finished. Sorry, I was otherwise engaged last night, & did not realise the time-constraint.

Golf rounds realy should not start in the middle of the night, it's all wrong.

[tikay]

all downhill from the first anyway would have taken that

Tikay i am not going to be around at all tommorow so re the Olympic Glory place lay i would not like a liability of more than £40 on the bet

Ideally of course would like to lay as low as possible but as i cant monitor the market tommorow, if Chompy is around be good if he could suggest a price

Thanks John. I'm going to miss this one, as I'm a bit unsure as to what price I should be aiming for, in the absence of both you & Chompy.

[tikay]

all downhill from the first anyway would have taken that

Tikay i am not going to be around at all tommorow so re the Olympic Glory place lay i would not like a liability of more than £40 on the bet

Ideally of course would like to lay as low as possible but as i cant monitor the market tommorow, if Chompy is around be good if he could suggest a price

£20 @ 8/1 covered us nicely for both evenings John, we are freerolling now, very well done.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £25-00

Outstanding Bets £2893.56

Free bets to use, ONE WILLIAM HILL ON SATURDAY

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A profit of £80 on Friday thanks to London Bridge winning at the Breeders Cup for a profit of £160. I read that London Bridge was crushed at Wolverhampton in March, then ran in a Class 6 at Brighton in the summer, then won last night and now has been sold to race in Australia!

Anyway, London Bridge produced a profit on Day 1 at Santa Anita of £110

At the ATP Tennis in Paris, Berdych won the first set off Ferrer, then lost the next two for a £30 loss

Shiv Kapur is well placed in 2nd in the Golf at 20-1 e/w. Jordan Speith less so in the WGC Champions, T11 after 2 rounds.

At Portman Road, Barnsley, by all accounts, produced a very good second half performance to come from behind and draw 1-1 with Ipswich. Thats a point closer to top half (cough) and top South Yorkhire club then (smaller cough)


Saturday will see another busy day

The Bailey bet finishes in the final ODI in India

There are £65 worth of bets placed on Breeders Cup Saturday

Arsenal play Liverpool, we have positions on both and Suarez

All of Marcus Mariotta, Bent, Rodriguez, Navas, Cazorla, Nugent, Ings, Vokes, Wells, Assombolonga and Bamford are in action

Texas A and M Tranmere, Watford (Sky Sports 12.15pm), Hull City, Cardiff City, Kidderminster, Southampton and Crystal Palace all play

We have Sheff U at Shrewsbury

Brett Morris on the wing for Australia in the RL WC

Dave Myers "dancing"on Strictly

Hannah Barratt quivering her bottom lip and trying not to cry on X Factor


In the other sporting events with no positions yet column

England play Australia at Twickenham

Good British racing at Wetherby (i think)

F1 Qualifying in Abu Dhabi


Got all that? Good, there will be a test on Sunday

What an extraordinary array of bets & markets we are on, no idea how you keep up with them all Rich, thanks.

I will try & reply to Mere's Month End figures today, too, thanks Mere, much appreciated.

[tikay]

Think we are up to date now, thanks lads, & good luck today, whatever you are on.

I'll ber Offline this evening, so can't process stuff after 6pm, normal service tomorrow though.

Please remind me tomorrow to have a look at the Betting Emporium NFL stuff, think we should do Neil's "Top Bets". Moissed two lovely winners last week, unavoidably due to work, but no excuses this week, am available all day Sunday up to around 7pm.

[tikay]

In the cricket, India are on the way to a monsta score, currently 355/4 with two overs remaining.

Remarkably, Sharma is 194 Not Out!

Even more remarkably, there is a threat of monsoon-type rain incoming, so Australia may not even bat, or complete, their innings.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-australia-2013-14/engine/current/match/647261.html

[tikay]

Wowzer, Sharma gets his double century, the 2nd coming in 40 balls.

And for rubs, HE has scored SIXTEEN Sixes, & there have been 19 sixes so far - with the Aussue innings still to come!

Can't help but feel we missed a bet here, especially after Tighty mentioned that with the new regulations, the Sixes, Boundaries & Totals lines have not caught up yet.

Has any batsman EVER scored that many sixes in a single ODI innings?