Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Paddy Power, 6/1 Amenable, 3.10 Southwell tomorrow. Much better handicapped on the AW and has won at Southwell. Should be favourite.

1) Missed the 6/1, took 5.

2) Clicked EW by mistake. Not my fault, no sir.

3) Genuine tiddlearse due to Restriction.

BET PLACED

Note there is now a Rule 4 on this race.

[tikay]

I like Aaron's Rooney FGS bet.  I know we are playing Germany, but 8/1 still looks big to me.  I haven't tried Ladbrokes though, just had a bit of 9.2 on Betfair.

Update on the reality shite, which Tony enjoys so much.  I hope a few got that 4/1 on Susanna, as she is the new favourite.  The only 11/10 on Ashley in the Top Man market has gone at all the bigger bookies, and that market seems a bit more sensible now.  You can get 9/4 Patrick again now if you have Ladbrokes, though that just looks nothing like the value Ashley looked.

I'll be looking at that shortly, & yes, 8/1 Rooney seems big.

But Aaron cast aspersions on the Germany defence, which, two aberrations v Sweden excepted, does not look (statistically) weak to me.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £375.29

Outstanding Bets £2947.51

Free bets TWO William Hill, first expiry Saturday

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32


No bets completed yesterday

In sporting action relevant to our longer term bets

Assombohalfinterestedlonga did not score at Walsall, and was substituted

Carolina beat the Patriots, giving our Miami bet half a squeak as they are now 2 games behind the Patriots in the AFC East with six games to go.

I am a celebrity get me out of here is underway, for our Steve Davis bet

[tikay]

Fred's Ashes Urnings (as at 19/11)

Top Ashes Series Batsman, Alastair Cook, £50 @ 11/2, Tighty

Centuries in Ashes, Ian Bell, 2 or more, £75 @ 2.8, Tighty

Stuart Broad, Top England Bowler, £50 @ 3/1, gherkin

[DungBeetle]

Been looking at the Ashes markets this morning.  One batsman who caught my eye in the summer was Steven Smith batting at 5.  Was very gritty in some bad situations and opened up when the circumstances allowed.   Think he is the one open to significant improvement this Ashes.    Anybody else think that he seems under-rated by the bookies?

Runs under/over 295
Available to buy on spreads at 310
Top Aussie bat 10/1
Player of series 33/1

Don't think it's beyond the realms of possiblility that he has a really big series from 5, especially if Andersen/Broad/Tremlett have regular early success with the new ball.  Not saying back all markets but he feels underated.  I'll probably buy at 310 on the spreads and a small back at 10/1 for top Aus bat personally.

I leave it open to the forum.

Thanks, feedback welcome.

I've just had a gander, & we do have several Ashes bets salready, I'll list them shortly, so we know where we are.

The problem with this bet is that there are going to be a lot of runs scored. Pitches are going to be hard and true, and not offer spin. Think T20 pitches. Could well be a couple of high scoring draws in the series

Smith might well have a big series but to scoop top Aussie bat he is going to have to score 500 runs plus. He's quoted at 295. Hence he is 10/1

418 runs won it in the summer on pitches suiting Swann. The universal view is the Aussie top order is flaky, but I am not so sure in these conditions

Yep - I can see this point of view.  But I can also see the new ball regularly nicking out Warner and Watson given the England bowling attack, leaving Clarke and Smith to build the bulk of the innings against the older ball with Swann less of a threat..........  Top aussie bat may be optimistic (but at 10/1 I'll take a chance given Bailey is 6/1 in places) but I really like the buy at 310 (or fixed odds backing over 295 at evens).

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/ground-with-most-runs

had a quick look during coffee break.

Total runs scored over the past three series in Aus.

Brisbane: 1365. 1331. 1192.

Adelaide: 1169. 1361. 1053.

Perth: 887. 1336. 864.

Melbourne: 869. 739. 1315.

Sydney: 1205. 887. 1403.

Obv loads more factors to ponder, but the Tighty & others may see if any value lurks...

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/ground-with-most-runs

had a quick look during coffee break.

Total runs scored over the past three series in Aus.

Brisbane: 1365. 1331. 1192.

Adelaide: 1169. 1361. 1053.

Perth: 887. 1336. 864.

Melbourne: 869. 739. 1315.

Sydney: 1205. 887. 1403.

Obv loads more factors to ponder, but the Tighty & others may see if any value lurks...

Thanks Tonji.

On the face of it, seems odd that Brisbane is only 2nd fav. I suppose there must be good reason. Expect chapter & verse, & sundry Heavy Roller photos, from his Tightness as well as normal people in due course.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/ground-with-most-runs

had a quick look during coffee break.

Total runs scored over the past three series in Aus.

Brisbane: 1365. 1331. 1192.

Adelaide: 1169. 1361. 1053.

Perth: 887. 1336. 864.

Melbourne: 869. 739. 1315.

Sydney: 1205. 887. 1403.

Obv loads more factors to ponder, but the Tighty & others may see if any value lurks...

I wrote about these in my preview last week

It should be Brisbane or Adelaide

Brisbane is often flat, very hard pitches that do not deteriorate. Unusual to see any weather help for seamers

Adelaide was also very flat. However this has slightly changed as the ground has been extensively redeveloped with tall new stands beginning to enclose the ground. This has been assisting seam bowlers

Perth is a one off. Fast bouncy and windy conditions. England always struggle here, the most alien conditions they encounter all tour. No surprise to see the least runs here

Melbourne's pitch typically deteriorates, in the sense that the bounce becomes more variable (part of the reason for this is the pitch gets mucked around with a lot with Aussie rules being played on it through the start of the cricket season). This is why big tall bowlers have a lot of success here as the batsman are often on the back foot and not able to counter variability in bounce.

Sydney was always the one test ground in Australia that would spin. loose soil, led to cracks. relaid pitches in the last two years though and its become more batsmen friendly

Of the five grounds, only Perth and Sydney are not drop in pitches

Drop in pitches last, don't turn much and suit batsmen. typically

Would have to go a  long way to convince me that Brisbane or Adelaide won't win this market. Funnily enough this is what prices suggest

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

The Atletico Madrid to win the CL has now gone out to 20-1 with Betfair, I do know you was waiting to press the button, think this could be a decent time. However not 100% sure how Betfair works with regards to % of profit or if you can trade a bet you have already bet to win. I still however think 18-1 with Corals is definitely backable, as there isn't that much left of even 16's at the moment.

Can Aaron, or someone, remind me what this was about, please?

The 18/1 (Corals) remains available.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

[tikay]

England v Germany tomorrow.

Ronny to score first is quite big with Ladbokes at 8's, best priced 13/2 anywhere else, looks like good value to me with Germany's defence.

Suggest £15.

Thanks Aaron.

We had £10 @ 8/1 with Mr Stein's fine firm.

Good luck.
 
BET PLACED

[DungBeetle]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/ground-with-most-runs

had a quick look during coffee break.

Total runs scored over the past three series in Aus.

Brisbane: 1365. 1331. 1192.

Adelaide: 1169. 1361. 1053.

Perth: 887. 1336. 864.

Melbourne: 869. 739. 1315.

Sydney: 1205. 887. 1403.

Obv loads more factors to ponder, but the Tighty & others may see if any value lurks...

Thanks Tonji.

On the face of it, seems odd that Brisbane is only 2nd fav. I suppose there must be good reason. Expect chapter & verse, & sundry Heavy Roller photos, from his Tightness as well as normal people in due course.

Isn't the issue with Brisbane the dodgy weather forecast?

[horseplayer]

presume the huge money for the draw the past 48 hours in the first test suggest bad weather for at least 1 day

not good for a runs bet

[TightEnd]

presume the huge money for the draw the past 48 hours in the first test suggest bad weather for at least 1 day

not good for a runs bet

and the pitch should be a belter

I don't think there is a bet in the "which ground" market. No obvious value

[TightEnd]

Dear Horsey

You talked about the possibilities for Iceland to upset Croatia last week

I saw a quote that interested me

----

The hosts head into Niko Kovac's second game in charge on the back of a tumultuous group stage campaign, which saw Igor Stimac sacked following a 2-0 defeat to Scotland last month.

Kovac will require the likes of Real Madrid midfielder Luka Modric and Bayern Munich striker Mario Mandzukic to be on top form if they are to progress with victory in Zagreb.

Mandzukic has already scored eight times for Bayern in 2013-14, but his form in qualifying has not been as impressive, with the 27-year-old netting just three goals in 11 appearances.

Croatia have struggled for goals throughout qualification, finding the net only 12 times.

But, despite their poor form in front of goal and the disappointing result in Reykjavik, captain Darijo Srna has urged his team-mates to stay positive.

"Our fatigue is more of a mental nature than a physical one," he said.

"But we have to stay positive and win the game."

------


If we regard Croatia as no great shakes on recent form, a bit light of goals and likely to be playing under a lot of pressure, whilst Iceland will likely be under no pressure

Is there any interest in Iceland 9-1 Draw no bet Sportingbet for tonight? (12-1 Outright)

[horseplayer]

The first leg was a dog

As i said at the time Croatia were awful almost looked not that bothered

Iceland are very very limited but have a very experienced coach a mainly experienced team and wont be intimidated by the game

Price seems fair enough for a small bet would not be going mad