Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

Hi Tony,

The Atletico Madrid to win the CL has now gone out to 20-1 with Betfair, I do know you was waiting to press the button, think this could be a decent time. However not 100% sure how Betfair works with regards to % of profit or if you can trade a bet you have already bet to win. I still however think 18-1 with Corals is definitely backable, as there isn't that much left of even 16's at the moment.

[aaron1867]

England v Germany tomorrow.

Ronny to score first is quite big with Ladbokes at 8's, best priced 13/2 anywhere else, looks like good value to me with Germany's defence.

Suggest £15.

[gherkin]

Have you got any bets on the Ashes series yet? 

I really like the look of Broad as top England bowler.  I think there is an 80%+ chance that the winner is coming from Swann, Broad or Anderson.  Whoever they pick from Tremlett, Finn or Rankin is not only less likely to take wickets but also has the possibility of being replaced by Bresnan at some point during the series. 

Broad was top England bowler last winter in NZ and the winter before that when we played Pakistan in the UAE.  He took 22 in the latest Ashes series in England (Anderson 22, Swann 26) and was the top wicket taker in the home series before this v New Zealand.  He also has 4 more test match wickets than anybody else in the world in 2013

I reckon he's close to a 30% shot in this market, certainly over 25%.  He isn't particularly popular among the general public (compared to Swann or Anderson) and still has to deal with a lot of unfair criticism (stemming from some very average performances 3-4 years ago) despite his excellent record over the last couple of years.  This is my only explanation for the rather generous price.  He is MUCH improved and bowled really well in the warm up game last week.

I think it's a definite bet at 10/3, I would have him around 5/2

[Chompy]

Al's Memory just won at Wolves

VC 12/1 for the 4.00 there tomo for those that can.

[JaffaCake]

the same hoss runs two days running?

[Marky147]

the same hoss runs two days running?

Turn it out before it gets hit with a penalty I'm guessing.

[Eso Kral]

Al's Memory just won at Wolves

VC 12/1 for the 4.00 there tomo for those that can.

365 14/1 for those that can get on

[Doobs]

Al's Memory just won at Wolves

VC 12/1 for the 4.00 there tomo for those that can.

365 9/1 for those that can get on

FYP

[Chompy]

the same hoss runs two days running?

Turn it out before it gets hit with a penalty I'm guessing.

Will be running under a penalty. Not uncommon for horseys to run consecutive days.

[rfgqqabc]

Al's Memory just won at Wolves

VC 12/1 for the 4.00 there tomo for those that can.

365 9/1 for those that can get on

FYP

Lasted all of 3 mins. lasted 12 mins!

[Doobs]

Put as much as you can £50* on Ashley Something to be top man in some reality tat.

After his charge into 7/1 from 100/1, Patrick is now back trading at 29/1 on Strictly for the overall.  

Hills, Corals, PP and Ladbrokes are all slow to react, and Ashley can still be backed at 11/10.  Though I expect a couple of those won't last long.

I think this is still a good price.  Just do it.  You could even arb it if you are feeling cowardly, though I don't think you should.

* I know Tikay will baulk at a max.

[horseplayer]

http://www.sportbusinesscentre.com/events/the-insiders-guide-to-match-fixing-in-football-declan-hill/


a must watch

1 hour 30 long but worth every minute

[TightEnd]

Have you got any bets on the Ashes series yet? 

I really like the look of Broad as top England bowler.  I think there is an 80%+ chance that the winner is coming from Swann, Broad or Anderson.  Whoever they pick from Tremlett, Finn or Rankin is not only less likely to take wickets but also has the possibility of being replaced by Bresnan at some point during the series. 

Broad was top England bowler last winter in NZ and the winter before that when we played Pakistan in the UAE.  He took 22 in the latest Ashes series in England (Anderson 22, Swann 26) and was the top wicket taker in the home series before this v New Zealand.  He also has 4 more test match wickets than anybody else in the world in 2013

I reckon he's close to a 30% shot in this market, certainly over 25%.  He isn't particularly popular among the general public (compared to Swann or Anderson) and still has to deal with a lot of unfair criticism (stemming from some very average performances 3-4 years ago) despite his excellent record over the last couple of years.  This is my only explanation for the rather generous price.  He is MUCH improved and bowled really well in the warm up game last week.

I think it's a definite bet at 10/3, I would have him around 5/2

this seems v sensible

As I said last week if these pitches spin I am a dutchman, simply can't give Swann pitches that suit him

Have to go fast and bouncy and back their seamers to beat ours

In that scenario this bet has to be Broad or Anderson

Likelihood is that a lot of runs will be scored this series, which is the only thing that puts me off 14-1 Broad England Man of the series

[tikay]

Put as much as you can £50* on Ashley Something to be top man in some reality tat.

After his charge into 7/1 from 100/1, Patrick is now back trading at 29/1 on Strictly for the overall.  

Hills, Corals, PP and Ladbrokes are all slow to react, and Ashley can still be backed at 11/10.  Though I expect a couple of those won't last long.

I think this is still a good price.  Just do it.  You could even arb it if you are feeling cowardly, though I don't think you should.

* I know Tikay will baulk at a max.

Groan.....

Thank you.

We got £50 @ 11/10 with Mr coral.

Details later, or in the morning.

BET PLACED

[Chompy]

Paddy Power, 6/1 Amenable, 3.10 Southwell tomorrow. Much better handicapped on the AW and has won at Southwell. Should be favourite.