Tips for Tikay

[JaffaCake]

Even if you're not expected to win it's stretching it a bit to say footballers playing to get to the World Cup in Brazil, their first ever for a country which loves its football, are playing with no pressure

[JoeBeevers]

Interesting Heisman Trophy piece and update:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/sports/college-football/post-heisman-trophy-watch-florida-states-jameis-wi/nbxMX/

Pre weekend Winston was 1/5 and 2/9 on Oddschecker, currently no market.

[horseplayer]

Even if you're not expected to win it's stretching it a bit to say footballers playing to get to the World Cup in Brazil, their first ever for a country which loves its football, are playing with no pressure


Maybe but not as much pressure as Croatia are under to qualify i would suspect

Anyway thats all in the price i expect Croatia to win tonight but price is a bit bigger than i thought based on watching the first leg

[aaron1867]

Croatia are going to be all over Iceland tonight. I wouldn't back Iceland at single figures, they didn't even have a shot on target at home.

With regards to Rooney bet, always thought Germany's defence has been the difference between them winning something and nothing at all, apparently playing a weaker side tonight too.

[aaron1867]

Hi Tony,

The Atletico Madrid to win the CL has now gone out to 20-1 with Betfair, I do know you was waiting to press the button, think this could be a decent time. However not 100% sure how Betfair works with regards to % of profit or if you can trade a bet you have already bet to win. I still however think 18-1 with Corals is definitely backable, as there isn't that much left of even 16's at the moment.

Can Aaron, or someone, remind me what this was about, please?

The 18/1 (Corals) remains available.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

Afternoon Tony,

This was my original post....

Thoughts on this for Fred please.

Athletico Madrid are best priced 17-1 to win the Champions League.

They do look a very decent team and have already won their weak group winning 4 out of 4.

They seem to me like they have some very decent players & although they are nowhere near the best team in the league, I still think they can progress to at least the quaters looking how things are.

They have the inability to be drawn against either of the Spanish teams in the next round, whilst it looks certain they can not be drawn with Bayern either & the likelyhood is that Chelsea, Arsenal & Man United will win their groups. It would see them likely to face a weak team in the last 16 & I am sure that if they progress, they can still put up a game against any of the bigger teams, I would probably have them over any English team.

Not looking it as a win bet, but with possibility to lay it off later? Cheers

It got a decent reaction even Redarmi liked it , said it looks a decent bet to lay later.

I would be very happy with 18's, but Betfair have 20's and I think that is very good and I think if possible the button should be pressed now whilst that is around. I do not use Betfair that much (if at all), but I am pretty sure 20-1, even after the tax, beats 18's with Corals and SkyBet.

[gherkin]

The first leg was a dog

As i said at the time Croatia were awful almost looked not that bothered

Iceland are very very limited but have a very experienced coach a mainly experienced team and wont be intimidated by the game

Price seems fair enough for a small bet would not be going mad

I watched the whole of that game and whilst I agree Croatia weren't great, there were only 2 possible outcomes - draw or away win.  As Aaron said, Iceland didn't have a shot on target and had absolutely no threat going forward (although they defended very well).  Had Croatia put away some of their fairly easy chances it would have been a comfortable win.

No idea how this game will play out or what price each team should be as I don't know enough about either team,  just pointing out the 1st leg was an extremely one sided 0-0

[aaron1867]

Sorry to spam, but whilst having a look for a bet tonight & on discussion of Croatia/Iceland...

Modric is 14/1 with Corals for first goalscorer, it is huge standout with 10/1 the biggest anywhere else.  Also huge standout for "anytime" at 11/2, also with Corals.

I think this is very much value, however, he hasn't scored a goal for Croatia in the qualifying stages, But we all know he is capable of one & you have to expect (even though it may not happen) that Croatia are good for a couple of goals tonight.

[horseplayer]

The first leg was a dog

As i said at the time Croatia were awful almost looked not that bothered

Iceland are very very limited but have a very experienced coach a mainly experienced team and wont be intimidated by the game

Price seems fair enough for a small bet would not be going mad

I watched the whole of that game and whilst I agree Croatia weren't great, there were only 2 possible outcomes - draw or away win.  As Aaron said, Iceland didn't have a shot on target and had absolutely no threat going forward (although they defended very well).  Had Croatia put away some of their fairly easy chances it would have been a comfortable win.

No idea how this game will play out or what price each team should be as I don't know enough about either team,  just pointing out the 1st leg was an extremely one sided 0-0

Iceland also played with 10 men for 40 minutes

[Doobs]

Hi Tony,

The Atletico Madrid to win the CL has now gone out to 20-1 with Betfair, I do know you was waiting to press the button, think this could be a decent time. However not 100% sure how Betfair works with regards to % of profit or if you can trade a bet you have already bet to win. I still however think 18-1 with Corals is definitely backable, as there isn't that much left of even 16's at the moment.

Can Aaron, or someone, remind me what this was about, please?

The 18/1 (Corals) remains available.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

Afternoon Tony,

This was my original post....

Thoughts on this for Fred please.

Athletico Madrid are best priced 17-1 to win the Champions League.

They do look a very decent team and have already won their weak group winning 4 out of 4.

They seem to me like they have some very decent players & although they are nowhere near the best team in the league, I still think they can progress to at least the quaters looking how things are.

They have the inability to be drawn against either of the Spanish teams in the next round, whilst it looks certain they can not be drawn with Bayern either & the likelyhood is that Chelsea, Arsenal & Man United will win their groups. It would see them likely to face a weak team in the last 16 & I am sure that if they progress, they can still put up a game against any of the bigger teams, I would probably have them over any English team.

Not looking it as a win bet, but with possibility to lay it off later? Cheers

It got a decent reaction even Redarmi liked it , said it looks a decent bet to lay later.

I would be very happy with 18's, but Betfair have 20's and I think that is very good and I think if possible the button should be pressed now whilst that is around. I do not use Betfair that much (if at all), but I am pretty sure 20-1, even after the tax, beats 18's with Corals and SkyBet.

In the next round they are likely to play a team that they are better than (barring Man C and maybe the German teams).  After that they are likely to play teams that are better than them.  After that the same applies.  So we have 4 games to play, one where we are likely favourites, 3 where we are likely the dog.  Am I underestimating them, or does that seem solid logic?

18/1 or 20/1 doesn't look like massive value.  You'd have to be pretty optimistic about the draw to make them much shorter.  

[aaron1867]

I think you can only say for sure that Bayern, Madrid & Barca are better than them. Personally think it is questionable whether they are better or worse than other teams who are shorter.

[TheDazzler]

http://www.sportbusinesscentre.com/events/the-insiders-guide-to-match-fixing-in-football-declan-hill/


a must watch

1 hour 30 long but worth every minute

Cheers Horsey for putting this up, it was a great watch although I did find Declan Hill himself to be a bit annoying.
You might be interested in this, which touches on some of the issues raised by Hill;
http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/29/nigeria-toughest-league-win-away

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

I would like to suggest a bet for the ashes series. The general consensus seems to be that the bat will be on top in this series so I would like to suggest backing a double hundred to be scored. There has been one in each of the last 2 ashes series in Australia and they also each had a score of 190. I thought the odds would be about evs but 6/4 is available.

Suggest £25 a double hundred to be scored @ 6/4 with William Hill.

[ripple11]

Just noticed a really cool team playing tonight has all 22 players and subs having a surname ending in  "n" 

[horseplayer]

http://www.sportbusinesscentre.com/events/the-insiders-guide-to-match-fixing-in-football-declan-hill/


a must watch

1 hour 30 long but worth every minute

Cheers Horsey for putting this up, it was a great watch although I did find Declan Hill himself to be a bit annoying.
You might be interested in this, which touches on some of the issues raised by Hill;
http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/29/nigeria-toughest-league-win-away

thanks dazzler thought it had been lost a bit

Yes no idea why he had a right go at the bloke who asked about asia a bit unnecessary

thanks for the link

[tikay]

Our Rooney FGS bet went south, I'm afraid.