Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Suggest £20 e/w Jason Day in the Australian Open golf at 13/2 with Spoilsports.

He is in form having just won a tournament; because the tournament is effectively Scott, McIlroy, Day, the it here's, the place part is really good value - 13/8 vs 5/4 on Betfair, so we are quite a bit up there and not so far down on the win part.   Effectively we are much closer to Betfair as Spoils have money back if 2nd to Scott.

Cheers

TY TY. Time we had a nice winner at the Golf.


BET PLACED

 ?

Not today my friend!

Lol, nope, not at all.

[Chompy]

The League One top scorer market is crazy competitive, but they're still offering 1/4 1-2-3-4, which makes it interesting.

Nicky Nacky and Callum Wilson could well get snapped up by Champo clubs in January, so there's a possibility two of the top three in the market won't be runners.

David Mooney is top of the charts on 13, won't be going anywhere, and the wheels show no signs of coming off Orient. He looks a sensible addition to the porfolio. VC's 12/1 has just disappeared, but the 10/1 with Mountains looks fine.

Recommend £25 each-ways

[redarmi]

So because of the maximum level of refund through the offer and because of the fact it is always value to take the offer, the optimal thing to do is to bet the max on each game and not vary the bet sizes? Right. Tikay will be delighted.

 

That depends on your bankroll but if your bankroll is the size of Freds then yes you should bet the max given it is normally only £100.  Lets do the maths.  We assume every bet has a 50% chance of winning for ease (and without other information it is a reasonable worst case assumption) and we bet £100.

50% of the time we return £190.91 so we have an expectation of 0.50*+90.91= 45.54
If we assume that 20% of the time there is a TD in the last two minutes and that it affects the result of our bet 50% of those times ie we were going to lose our bet (I think it is higher than that but lets be conservative). So 10% of the time I break even when I should have lost
The other 40% of the time we lose so for clarities sake 0.4*-100 = -£40

So my +EV on the bet is +£5.54 for every £100 I bet.  My Kelly calculator tells me if I have a 5.54% on an even money shot I should bet 2.77% of my bankroll so I guess if your roll is a grand then you shouldn't really exceed it.  Of course this all comes down to exactly how many TD's are scored in that period and I can't seem to get that info easily but for the bet to still be -EV it would have to be less than 10% of all TD's.  It probably favours bets on favourites a little more because late TD's are more likely to favour dogs covering.

[Tal]

Thanks for taking the time to explain that.

On the basis of previous experience, I shalln't try to apply any of that in future posts, but it does make sense to me.

[Doobs]

So because of the maximum level of refund through the offer and because of the fact it is always value to take the offer, the optimal thing to do is to bet the max on each game and not vary the bet sizes? Right. Tikay will be delighted.

 

Not sure we have access to PP offers though?  I think Tikay was checking just to make sure? 

[tikay]

The League One top scorer market is crazy competitive, but they're still offering 1/4 1-2-3-4, which makes it interesting.

Nicky Nacky and Callum Wilson could well get snapped up by Champo clubs in January, so there's a possibility two of the top three in the market won't be runners.

David Mooney is top of the charts on 13, won't be going anywhere, and the wheels show no signs of coming off Orient. He looks a sensible addition to the porfolio. VC's 12/1 has just disappeared, but the 10/1 with Mountains looks fine.

Recommend £25 each-ways

Why won't he be going anywhere?

We are on, anyway, ty ty, but just interested, like.

Tighty details in the morning.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

So because of the maximum level of refund through the offer and because of the fact it is always value to take the offer, the optimal thing to do is to bet the max on each game and not vary the bet sizes? Right. Tikay will be delighted.

 

Not sure we have access to PP offers though?  I think Tikay was checking just to make sure? 

Yup, Fred is persona non grata, (that's Latin, see?) with Mr Power & Co.

[Chompy]

The League One top scorer market is crazy competitive, but they're still offering 1/4 1-2-3-4, which makes it interesting.

Nicky Nacky and Callum Wilson could well get snapped up by Champo clubs in January, so there's a possibility two of the top three in the market won't be runners.

David Mooney is top of the charts on 13, won't be going anywhere, and the wheels show no signs of coming off Orient. He looks a sensible addition to the porfolio. VC's 12/1 has just disappeared, but the 10/1 with Mountains looks fine.

Recommend £25 each-ways

Why won't he be going anywhere?

We are on, anyway, ty ty, but just interested, like.

Tighty details in the morning.

BET PLACED

I'd be surprised if he did, rather than he definitely won't, on account of his age.

[bobby1]

Just put this on NFL thread but prob better analysed here:

How often are touchdowns scored in the final 2 minutes (regular time) of a match?  I'm assuming it's higher than most 2 minute blocks due to number of TO's used.

PP have an offer for Thanksgiving where stakes refunded on losing handicap bets if either team scores a TD in last 2 mins.  Not sure how big a deal that is?

I'm not sure of the numbers but that looks a decent offer. If the offer means a from the 2 mins plus OT then it's even better.

Cheers

[Snowball]

Regarding L1 top scorer.
Griffths looks an ew bet to nothing at 4/1.
He plays with arguably the best side, takes pens, free kicks.
He was one of the best Players in Scotland last year and won a lot of awards playing for a very poor Hibs team.
It looks like hes settled in well in England and I expect him to kick on from here.

[bobby1]

Suggest £20 e/w Jason Day in the Australian Open golf at 13/2 with Spoilsports.

He is in form having just won a tournament; because the tournament is effectively Scott, McIlroy, Day, the it here's, the place part is really good value - 13/8 vs 5/4 on Betfair, so we are quite a bit up there and not so far down on the win part.   Effectively we are much closer to Betfair as Spoils have money back if 2nd to Scott.

Cheers

I'm riding Scott win and Day ew in this myself which sounds obvious but in an event with loads  of runners but a big gap in class between the top end and the rest it looks pretty solid. Tho Scott might be ready to hit the wall after playing and winning a lot recently. one thing tho should get an online account with Jennings bet, the pay 6 places each way on all the full field events. They were 7/1 6 places Day last night. tho the Boils offer is very good there too.
 

[tikay]

The League One top scorer market is crazy competitive, but they're still offering 1/4 1-2-3-4, which makes it interesting.

Nicky Nacky and Callum Wilson could well get snapped up by Champo clubs in January, so there's a possibility two of the top three in the market won't be runners.

David Mooney is top of the charts on 13, won't be going anywhere, and the wheels show no signs of coming off Orient. He looks a sensible addition to the porfolio. VC's 12/1 has just disappeared, but the 10/1 with Mountains looks fine.

Recommend £25 each-ways

Why won't he be going anywhere?

We are on, anyway, ty ty, but just interested, like.

Tighty details in the morning.

BET PLACED

I'd be surprised if he did, rather than he definitely won't, on account of his age.

You got a problem with age then, Sonny Jim?

Ageism is illegal, you know. It is.

[tikay]

Suggest £20 e/w Jason Day in the Australian Open golf at 13/2 with Spoilsports.

He is in form having just won a tournament; because the tournament is effectively Scott, McIlroy, Day, the it here's, the place part is really good value - 13/8 vs 5/4 on Betfair, so we are quite a bit up there and not so far down on the win part.   Effectively we are much closer to Betfair as Spoils have money back if 2nd to Scott.

Cheers

I'm riding Scott win and Day ew in this myself which sounds obvious but in an event with loads  of runners but a big gap in class between the top end and the rest it looks pretty solid. Tho Scott might be ready to hit the wall after playing and winning a lot recently. one thing tho should get an online account with Jennings bet, the pay 6 places each way on all the full field events. They were 7/1 6 places Day last night. tho the Boils offer is very good there too.
 

We already have one Phil, but they are not on Oddschecker, so I always forget to look at their prices.

[tikay]

Regarding L1 top scorer.
Griffths looks an ew bet to nothing at 4/1.
He plays with arguably the best side, takes pens, free kicks.
He was one of the best Players in Scotland last year and won a lot of awards playing for a very poor Hibs team.
It looks like hes settled in well in England and I expect him to kick on from here.

Thanks Snowy, busy at the mo, but will have a look in a bit.

[bobby1]

Sorry Tony, can't quote at the mo. That's good news, anyone that bets a lot of  golf should get an account there, I think the phones and online arms run differently there so not sure if it  applies to phone bets too.