Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Sheffield Wednesday continue their awful results AND performances in the Championship.

On Saturday they were beaten comfortably by Huddersfield. There are serious problems and its clear the players aren't playing for Jones and have no confidence at all.

Defensively Wednesday are putting in more erratic performances in recent games and Dave Jones took the ridiculous decision to drop Chris Kirkland on Saturday (our best player this season) and replace him with Arsenal's 4th choice goalkeeper who is on loan at Hillsborough (unless Jones is completely clueless there must be a lot more to him being dropped than his form).

They also badly miss Anthony Gardener at centre half with either Llera or Zayette playing - both are guaranteed one serious error per game.

Wednesday travel to Blackpool on Saturday.

Blackpool are 19/20 with Corals. I'm on that and suggest a £15 bet.

I was tempted by the thought of Blackpool -1 goal but thought better of it. Barring an unusual display Wednesday will lose.

Blackpool out to 5/4 with BetVictor.
Think it's worth a bet at that price.

Ooh, good bump Neil, thank you, had forgotten that one. Will sort shortly.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £185.01

Outstanding Bets £2999.51

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32


No bets completed or placed yesterday but there was action in some of the longer term positions

- Napoli's defeat at Dortmund leaves their CL Qualification hopes looking very slim. They host Arsenal in the final game needing to win by three goals to stand a chance of qualification, assuming Dortmund take three points from Marseille

- Assombolonga scored last night in Peterborough's defeat at Brentford. 8 for the season now, 4 off the leaders. Wells and Bamford did not score in their games

- Doncaster lost at Charlton, which helps the South Yorkshire clubs bet

- Sheff U drew at home to Walsall. Not the best of results, but as some of us know, Walsall are a tricky team to get right.

- Tranmere lost at Wolves, as most would have expected, to keep them in the relegation mix

Quite right too, "lest they forget" what a mess that Eso Tosser got us in last Season.

[Eso Kral]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £185.01

Outstanding Bets £2999.51

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32


No bets completed or placed yesterday but there was action in some of the longer term positions

- Napoli's defeat at Dortmund leaves their CL Qualification hopes looking very slim. They host Arsenal in the final game needing to win by three goals to stand a chance of qualification, assuming Dortmund take three points from Marseille

- Assombolonga scored last night in Peterborough's defeat at Brentford. 8 for the season now, 4 off the leaders. Wells and Bamford did not score in their games

- Doncaster lost at Charlton, which helps the South Yorkshire clubs bet

- Sheff U drew at home to Walsall. Not the best of results, but as some of us know, Walsall are a tricky team to get right.

- Tranmere lost at Wolves, as most would have expected, to keep them in the relegation mix

Quite right too, "lest they forget" what a mess that Eso Tosser got us in last Season.

  not long till we should red out on the current Eso long term pos that touched 11/10 once a long time ago...

[Jamier-Host]

Just put this on NFL thread but prob better analysed here:

How often are touchdowns scored in the final 2 minutes (regular time) of a match?  I'm assuming it's higher than most 2 minute blocks due to number of TO's used.

PP have an offer for Thanksgiving where stakes refunded on losing handicap bets if either team scores a TD in last 2 mins.  Not sure how big a deal that is?

[tikay]

Just put this on NFL thread but prob better analysed here:

How often are touchdowns scored in the final 2 minutes (regular time) of a match?  I'm assuming it's higher than most 2 minute blocks due to number of TO's used.

PP have an offer for Thanksgiving where stakes refunded on losing handicap bets if either team scores a TD in last 2 mins.  Not sure how big a deal that is?

Great question.

So many variables, it sort of depends if it is what we NFL punting pros call a sandwich game, whether it is ATS, & the wind factor if there is no roof, once we know that we can split the hammer.   

[tikay]

Sheffield Wednesday continue their awful results AND performances in the Championship.

On Saturday they were beaten comfortably by Huddersfield. There are serious problems and its clear the players aren't playing for Jones and have no confidence at all.

Defensively Wednesday are putting in more erratic performances in recent games and Dave Jones took the ridiculous decision to drop Chris Kirkland on Saturday (our best player this season) and replace him with Arsenal's 4th choice goalkeeper who is on loan at Hillsborough (unless Jones is completely clueless there must be a lot more to him being dropped than his form).

They also badly miss Anthony Gardener at centre half with either Llera or Zayette playing - both are guaranteed one serious error per game.

Wednesday travel to Blackpool on Saturday.

Blackpool are 19/20 with Corals. I'm on that and suggest a £15 bet.

I was tempted by the thought of Blackpool -1 goal but thought better of it. Barring an unusual display Wednesday will lose.

Thanks Rick.

Blackpool were out to 5/4 earlier in one spot today (thanks to JAKALLY for the nudge), which I missed, lol, but BMU still go 6/5, which is OOL & much better than the 19/20 at which you recommended, so we splashed out & had £20. No tiddlearsing here.

BET PLACED

[redarmi]

Just put this on NFL thread but prob better analysed here:

How often are touchdowns scored in the final 2 minutes (regular time) of a match?  I'm assuming it's higher than most 2 minute blocks due to number of TO's used.

PP have an offer for Thanksgiving where stakes refunded on losing handicap bets if either team scores a TD in last 2 mins.  Not sure how big a deal that is?

Its a pretty big edge.  I would say you could just bet blind on those games and be comfortably in front in terms of EV.  I don't know the exact figures but there is normally a prop bet of will there be a score in the last two minutes of the first half and yes is normally a fairly big favourite.  Second halves are a bit different but I would think there are probably more TD's at the end of 's because teams need them and go for it on 4th down a lot more although obviously it depends slightly on the state of the game.  I would say it is definitely +EV though.

[Tal]

Should we firm it up by looking for games where there is a 7+ point difference, so more likely to be looking for TDs than field goals?

Are teams who score more TDs more likely to score in the last 2 mins?

[Doobs]

Suggest £20 e/w Jason Day in the Australian Open golf at 13/2 with Spoilsports.

He is in form having just won a tournament; because the tournament is effectively Scott, McIlroy, Day, the it here's, the place part is really good value - 13/8 vs 5/4 on Betfair, so we are quite a bit up there and not so far down on the win part.   Effectively we are much closer to Betfair as Spoils have money back if 2nd to Scott.

Cheers

[tikay]

Suggest £20 e/w Jason Day in the Australian Open golf at 13/2 with Spoilsports.

He is in form having just won a tournament; because the tournament is effectively Scott, McIlroy, Day, the it here's, the place part is really good value - 13/8 vs 5/4 on Betfair, so we are quite a bit up there and not so far down on the win part.   Effectively we are much closer to Betfair as Spoils have money back if 2nd to Scott.

Cheers

TY TY. Time we had a nice winner at the Golf.


BET PLACED

[redarmi]

Should we firm it up by looking for games where there is a 7+ point difference, so more likely to be looking for TDs than field goals?

Are teams who score more TDs more likely to score in the last 2 mins?

No.  Because teams leading by large margins will be trying to run down the clock in the last two minutes.  We really want close-ish but not so close that a FG is okay to win it if that makes sense.  Ideally in this spot you want the dog up by 4 but no matter what you want the team that is behind to have the ball because they won't try and run down the clock.

[Tal]

Should we firm it up by looking for games where there is a 7+ point difference, so more likely to be looking for TDs than field goals?

Are teams who score more TDs more likely to score in the last 2 mins?

No.  Because teams leading by large margins will be trying to run down the clock in the last two minutes.  We really want close-ish but not so close that a FG is okay to win it if that makes sense.  Ideally in this spot you want the dog up by 4 but no matter what you want the team that is behind to have the ball because they won't try and run down the clock.

All things being equal, there must be games where the two teams in a game are more likely to score a TD than others?

If a team with a multifaceted offence were playing a team with a porous defence, the game is surely more likely to see a touchdown when the team with the good offence has possession? Maybe this is particularly where the good team is well ahead and doesn't mind throwing to receivers.

Just seems to me that there should be games where the offer is better.

I'm undoubtedly either under- or over-thinking it.

[BigAdz]

Suggest £20 e/w Jason Day in the Australian Open golf at 13/2 with Spoilsports.

He is in form having just won a tournament; because the tournament is effectively Scott, McIlroy, Day, the it here's, the place part is really good value - 13/8 vs 5/4 on Betfair, so we are quite a bit up there and not so far down on the win part.   Effectively we are much closer to Betfair as Spoils have money back if 2nd to Scott.

Cheers

TY TY. Time we had a nice winner at the Golf.


BET PLACED

 ?

Not today my friend!

[redarmi]

Should we firm it up by looking for games where there is a 7+ point difference, so more likely to be looking for TDs than field goals?

Are teams who score more TDs more likely to score in the last 2 mins?

No.  Because teams leading by large margins will be trying to run down the clock in the last two minutes.  We really want close-ish but not so close that a FG is okay to win it if that makes sense.  Ideally in this spot you want the dog up by 4 but no matter what you want the team that is behind to have the ball because they won't try and run down the clock.

All things being equal, there must be games where the two teams in a game are more likely to score a TD than others?

If a team with a multifaceted offence were playing a team with a porous defence, the game is surely more likely to see a touchdown when the team with the good offence has possession? Maybe this is particularly where the good team is well ahead and doesn't mind throwing to receivers.

Just seems to me that there should be games where the offer is better.

I'm undoubtedly either under- or over-thinking it.

Yes of course but you are overthinking it too.  The games with higher totals are obviously more likely to see a late TD but it is value in every game and, as such, you should bet it in every game if you have access to their offers.  To be honest that is pretty much the case with every offer PP do. 

[Tal]

So because of the maximum level of refund through the offer and because of the fact it is always value to take the offer, the optimal thing to do is to bet the max on each game and not vary the bet sizes? Right. Tikay will be delighted.