Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Thank you Tighty for 3/3 NFL bets.

Come on the Ravens tonight !

4/4 Tighty !!

7/7 last two weeks Mrs! (though we will call it 6/7 after I reversed engines on Washington shall we?)

[Tal]

Eagles v Broncos would be good for the TV audience. Plenty of points and dynamic plays.

Suppose there's always a thought about Manning in the clutch games, where Brady is less squigglable

[TightEnd]

Cricket

Bleurgh

We won't be winning the Cook bet

Probably not the Bell bet

Might win the 200 bet.

The Aussies have 6 centuries to 1, have scored seven hundred runs more than England....etc etc


Broad 14 wickets
Anderson 7 wickets
Swann 7 wickets

So, Broad's foot

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

It wasn't broken, and they are hoping to get him fit for Boxing Day

Or will they? Ashes gone, I rather fear they'll send him home to get right for next summer

Click to see full-size image.

Then again, Anderson and Swann have been bowling well below form, may get rested too?

All eyes on selection strategy over the next week

[Longy]

Bengals division bet suddenly looking in trouble.   Relying on Brady next week!

Unreal isn't it, Baltimore sneaked amazing wins late in the last 2 games and that Cincy D is running out of players in some spots. Baltimore win their last 2 games and they have won the Div. Cincy could still be 2nd seeds in the Conference or not even win their Div so we got big swings in two bets over the next two weeks.

They don't make the playoffs if the Dolphins win out as they have a loss to Miami which will lose them the tiebreaker.

[TightEnd]

We have £20 e/w on Suarez to win the Premier League Golden Boot at 20-1

He is now around 1/3

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

He is 4 goals ahead of Aguero


So, we look good things to collect £500 here in May

However, things have gone extraordinarily well for this bet

- Suarez has 17 goals in 11 games, no injuries or suspensions
- Aguero is expected to be out for a month
- Van Persie is injured

It may not always be so

- January transfer window to get through. The possibility of a move is obviously more remote than it was widely suggested in the summer when he wanted a transfer, but the probability is clearly not zero either
- He can get injured
- He can get suspended

He is currently 1.4-1.41 on Betfair

We can currently insure against the risks for £16 (3 % of the gross win of £500) by laying £40 at 1.4

If he wins we are £500 (£20 ew at 5-1) -£16 (the lay)=£484 net
If the each way component comes in only we are £100 (£20 at 5-1) +£40 (the lay wins) -£20 (the win bet) =£120
If he were to finish out of the top three we are £40-40=£0

So we green out fairly cost-effectively, can still sweat Suarez for £484 at no risk whatsoever

Obviously he can go from 1.4 to 1.2 and 1.1, but I feel this is a situation where we've had the vast majority of the value of the bet, helped by the "perfect storm" of circumstances we have seen since October

Recommendation Lay Suarez £40 at 1.4 Betfair liability £16.40 to go  484-120-0

You can obviously up the £40 and go green-green (eg £100 lay makes the book +£460 he wins/+£180 he finishes placed/+£60 he loses)

Your call on that tikay

[Chompy]

Camel will do his nut but I'd always green up in this spot. It's sport and anything could happen. If it was me I'd lay £150 or £200 @ 1.41. Balance things up a bit and forget about it.

This is not Alan Shearer. This is bitey boy coming up to the January window.

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

Loving your work horsey, thank you.

May I ask who is the be-spectacled young lady?

Back in the day......we used to say

Men make passes at girls who wear glasses

Which was a bit of a sugary cliche, but these days, sadly, it is more likely that some pimply adolescent will say, without a hint of irony....

I would

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit today  £0
Profit on month  £231.16

On a day when the Ashes were gift wrapped and handed over it was appropriate that it was another quiet Fred day, almost reonant of a period of mourning. No completed bets at all and only a bet on Malky Mackay to depart Cardiff was placed.

Still no 100+ averages in the darts but we are  still super confident.

Last nights victory for Baltimore means the Bengals bet is going to the wire. Still get that one home and the Titans point scoring wager and the Pension Express will be less like this....

Click to see full-size image.

and more like this ....

Click to see full-size image.

It was so quiet that Tikay even had time to create another thread so that he could pour further scorn on Chompy and Eso Kral.

Well the life of a Fred reporter is shorter than a premier league football manager so I shall bid you all  So long, Farewell, Auf Wiedersein, Adieu...

Very well done & thank you, hector, you got that balance between facts, humour, information & jibes spot on. More Chompy & Eso mockery next time though, please. They are a liability.

[tikay]

MM now best priced 5/4 to go

As I said last night, I'm not a lover of "Next Manager" type markets, but in this case, we KNOW he will be gone soon, we just don't know if he'll be next. He must be aching to be re-united with his kicked out sidekick, & he is barely half the Manager without him imo, much like Clough & Taylor needed each other.

I've no idea where he may go, but the Managerial whirlygig has not stopped whirling yet, Big Sam must dread a knock on his office door.

[redarmi]

Camel will do his nut but I'd always green up in this spot. It's sport and anything could happen. If it was me I'd lay £150 or £200 @ 1.41. Balance things up a bit and forget about it.

This is not Alan Shearer. This is bitey boy coming up to the January window.

I think this is a spot where we should green up and I would be surprised if Keith didn't agree tbh.  He is never a 2/5 shot now given his temperament and the fact he is known to want to leave the club.  I think it is a value lay and given we would like to reduce the variance of an important resultit is a good thing to do.

[tikay]

The Suarez thing.

I'd be very comfortable booking some insurance, as described. Tighty suggested it, & Chomps & Stu both agree.

Ignoring Camel for the moment (he'll be at Moss Bros to get his suit for the Fred Starrs Award), to what degree should we do it?

Just cover the bet, midway, or the whole 9 Chompy's?

It's too good a spot to pass up, I think. One moment of madness by him, someone provokes him or whatever, & he could be looking at a 6 month ban.   

[TightEnd]

I think Chompy probably has it right, he being more experienced than I in these things

Lay £150 at 1.41

He wins £500-£61.50= £438.50

Each way £100+£150-£20= £230

He loses £150-£40=£110

win win win and we can still funk the original bet

[bobby1]

Bengals division bet suddenly looking in trouble.   Relying on Brady next week!

Unreal isn't it, Baltimore sneaked amazing wins late in the last 2 games and that Cincy D is running out of players in some spots. Baltimore win their last 2 games and they have won the Div. Cincy could still be 2nd seeds in the Conference or not even win their Div so we got big swings in two bets over the next two weeks.

They don't make the playoffs if the Dolphins win out as they have a loss to Miami which will lose them the tiebreaker.

Dolphins could win out and still not finish above Cincy , Cincy could tie up the Div this week with a win if Balti lose ?

[tikay]

I think Chompy probably has it right, he being more experienced than I in these things

Lay £150 at 1.41

He wins £500-£61.50= £438.50

Each way £100+£150-£20= £230

He loses £150-£40=£110

win win win and we can still funk the original bet

Umm, excuse me Mr End, but what right have you got to comment?

You got a 2 day Chat Ban for that unseemly rant the other morning.

What is your excuse, & plea of mitigation?

[TightEnd]

I think Chompy probably has it right, he being more experienced than I in these things

Lay £150 at 1.41

He wins £500-£61.50= £438.50

Each way £100+£150-£20= £230

He loses £150-£40=£110

win win win and we can still funk the original bet

Umm, excuse me Mr End, but what right have you got to comment?

You got a 2 day Chat Ban for that unseemly rant the other morning.

What is your excuse, & plea of mitigation?

I don't need a plea of mitigation (though I thought I was posting on the NFL thread)

Sport is at its best and worst when you care.