Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

nice stuff with the jumper chompy

was impressed by that looks a lovely big type (insert further cliche here)

[bobby1]

I think Chompy probably has it right, he being more experienced than I in these things

Lay £150 at 1.41

He wins £500-£61.50= £438.50

Each way £100+£150-£20= £230

He loses £150-£40=£110

win win win and we can still funk the original bet

Umm, excuse me Mr End, but what right have you got to comment?

You got a 2 day Chat Ban for that unseemly rant the other morning.

What is your excuse, & plea of mitigation?

It was not a rant, it was a passion filled plea. In the North that would rate as a polite opening gambit to a conversation.

[horseplayer]

as for the young lady Tikay Chompy is aware of her

[tikay]

I wanted a run through our various NFL bets, as it is getting to the business end with two weeks of the regular season to go.

1 Cincinanati Bengals

Click to see full-size image.

Getting squeaky, after the Bengals lost to the Steelers on Sunday and the Ravens beat the perennially self destructing Lions last night

With two games to go the situation is

Bengals    9    5    
Ravens    8    6

Games to play this weekend Patriots at Ravens, Vikings at Bengals

and then what could be a big night for us Ravens at Bengals  

We are still favourites, but it closer because a) the Ravens have won 4 in a row and b) the Bengals defense is badly injury hit including both starting cornerbacks, starting LB, Starting all-pro DT, starting safety.

2 Kansas City Chiefs



Denver and KC are tied at 11-3 records, but as Denver have beaten KC twice they hold the tie breaker

In the last two weeks Denver have Houston and Oakland and its asking a lot for Denver to lose either

KC has the Colts and Chargers, much tougher

I think (even though I say so myself) this was a corker of a bet at 7-1 in a four horse race to win the division, and KC could go 12-4 or 13-3 and not win the division which is a real outlier result. We've run into Mr Peyton Manning and a superb Denver team though, not unexpectedly but we had a great run at the price.

KC have done one of the great turn-rounds 2-14 last year to 11-3 this with one of the two top running backs, the superb Jamaal Charles, a decent quarterback who makes few mistakes and a top top defense. Add some more weapons next year (receiver, tight end etc) and this could be a superbowl team

3 Philadelphia Eagles

Click to see full-size image.

Are in pole position to win the NFC East. If they do, they could be a real threat to anyone in the play offs because of their game winning offensive talent in McCoy, Jackson etc. We have them 50-1  to win the superbowl

The Eagles are 1 game ahead in the division and play Chicago this week with the result incidental because assuming the Cowboys win this week (yeah right) then the winner of the last game of the season Eagles at Cowboys wins the division

4 Tennessee Titans

Click to see full-size image.

Needing 355 points to win this bet, the Titans have now scored 326 points with two games to go. 29 points in two games against Jacksonville and Houston should be a good thing

As was proved this past weekend, when the Titans scored 34 points including 17 in the last five minutes, what has really helped this bet (but probably not the team, who have won five games all season) is the injury to the quarterback Jake Locker, under whom the Titans played very conservatively, ran it a lot and were pretty humdrum. Under back up Ryan FitzMagic the Titans opened up, threw it more and put up more points. And lost more games as the defense was on the field more as the offense scored quicker.

5 Quarterbacks



Updating for Stafford last night:

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   4,811   
2   Drew Brees, QB    NO   4,500   
3   Matthew Stafford, QB DET   4,211
4   Tom Brady, QB    NE 4,049   
5   Philip Rivers, QB SD   4,048   
6   Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT 3,915   
7   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   3,887

We have 2 and 3, paying 4 places e/w. As bobby1 says yesterday, here is another bet that has run into Manning in a vintage year. For a very modest loss overall (2 each way winners and a loser) we need Stafford to hold off both Brady and Rivers in the last two weeks.  Ryan looks too far back to challenge
 

That is a cracking review of where we are, especially for NFL Newbies like me, still not used to how the regular season works. 

What does this mean, exactly?.....


Denver have beaten KC twice they hold the tie breaker

I love the way NFL comes to this climax at the end of the regular season, and we have a really nice portfolio of stuff, some of our bets are amazing value, as the Teams looked shite last season.

If time permits, for the next two "big" NFL weekends, perhaps you could do a seperate NFL Report?

I'll try & remember to ask on Sunday what we need to sweat this weekend, too.   

[Chompy]

Young lady chewing on a cupcake = the lovely Sam Faiers

Jumping charge looks a lovely, grand, raw-boned, chasing type who's going to do well over the big black ones.

[tikay]

Thank you Tighty for 3/3 NFL bets.

Come on the Ravens tonight !

4/4 Tighty !!

He did much the same the previous week.

Now that Fred does now follow the BE stuff, I think Tighty should link to his Betpal NFL piece here on Fred every week.

Incidentally, I note I got no credit for my Tip in my Weekly UKPC Update, in which I confidently tipped the Packers to beat the Cowboys @ 2/1. T'was never in doubt, not for a moment.

[TightEnd]

Quite often at the end of the regular season teams finish with the same record

Denver and KC might, in a fortnight

The tie breakers go something like

- records against each other

- records against the division

- records against the conference

- strength of the opponents you have played

in this way when tied teams can be ranked (for both the post season and next years draft order)

in this case the first tie breaker

Denver have beaten KC twice they hold the tie breaker

is at it says

Denver are currently top of the division by beating KC twice despite both being W 11 L 3

[tikay]

Eagles v Broncos would be good for the TV audience. Plenty of points and dynamic plays.

Suppose there's always a thought about Manning in the clutch games, where Brady is less squigglable

Standards are dropping, what the hell does that mean?

[bobby1]

Thank you Tighty for 3/3 NFL bets.

Come on the Ravens tonight !

4/4 Tighty !!

He did much the same the previous week.

Now that Fred does now follow the BE stuff, I think Tighty should link to his Betpal NFL piece here on Fred every week.

Incidentally, I note I got no credit for my Tip in my Weekly UKPC Update, in which I confidently tipped the Packers to beat the Cowboys @ 2/1. T'was never in doubt, not for a moment.

It sounds like you have really got into and enjoy the NFL Tony,was it a sport you watched much of before you came back to the dark side?

[tikay]

I am back in the land of broadband replete with packing boxes and the like

Thanks to hector for doing the business. If he or anyone wants to do a day a week or whatever, just shout!

Thiis is an interesting point, especially as Tighty's workload is not getting any lighter.

Lots of folks get a ton of fun from Fred, & plenty of free money, too, but it would really help, & not be a bad thing, if we could spread the load a bit.

If anyone is interested in doing, say, a day or two each week, please Post your interest on thread, or feel free to PM tighty & or myself with your suggestion.

horsey is doing the gallery once a week now, & that helps, too, same thing applies.

If we want Fred to continue into 2014, we do need to spread the load a bit, I think.

[Longy]

Bengals division bet suddenly looking in trouble.   Relying on Brady next week!

Unreal isn't it, Baltimore sneaked amazing wins late in the last 2 games and that Cincy D is running out of players in some spots. Baltimore win their last 2 games and they have won the Div. Cincy could still be 2nd seeds in the Conference or not even win their Div so we got big swings in two bets over the next two weeks.

They don't make the playoffs if the Dolphins win out as they have a loss to Miami which will lose them the tiebreaker.

Dolphins could win out and still not finish above Cincy , Cincy could tie up the Div this week with a win if Balti lose ?

Probably crossing wires here but my badly made point was. If Cincy lose to baltimore, they are relying on help to even make the playoffs.

A scenario where Baltimore (beat cincy week 17) and Miami win out, all 3 finish on 10-6. Baltimore win the division on tiebreaker and Miami get the 6th seed on tiebreaker, leaving Cincy out in the cold.

All 3 actually control their own destiny.

[Longy]

Anyone interested in geeking out and running NFL playoff scenarios.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I remember when I was a teenager, me and my dad around this time of year used to try and do it all ourselves, working with incomplete information and little resource apart from the standings to work with. I used to love it!

[horseplayer]

Young lady chewing on a cupcake = the lovely Sam Faiers

Jumping charge looks a lovely, grand, raw-boned, chasing type who's going to do well over the big black ones.

Anything he did over hurdles was almost certainly a bonus

[tikay]

Thank you Tighty for 3/3 NFL bets.

Come on the Ravens tonight !

4/4 Tighty !!

He did much the same the previous week.

Now that Fred does now follow the BE stuff, I think Tighty should link to his Betpal NFL piece here on Fred every week.

Incidentally, I note I got no credit for my Tip in my Weekly UKPC Update, in which I confidently tipped the Packers to beat the Cowboys @ 2/1. T'was never in doubt, not for a moment.

It sounds like you have really got into and enjoy the NFL Tony,was it a sport you watched much of before you came back to the dark side?

Very much so, I'm still in the "discovery" stage though, & a lot of it confuses the life out of me. I did, thanks to a good friend, a "penalty yards" spread bet at the weekend, but I had no idea what a penalty yard was......

The names confuse me, too. Sometimes it is, say, Tennessee, other times it is Titans, & Oddschecker, & the NFL page, all use one or the other. I am on Tennesee, & I get to the NFL page & I can't see that name anywhere, ugh. So I have to rack my brains to remember what their other name is. I go though all the nicks first - Bears - no, Lions, no, Browns, no, ahh there it is, Titans.

I've enjoyed all the different Sports that Fred has got me into, but I enjoy them more when I understand them. If Bazza puts a boxing bet up, I've got no idea, but I go with it.  Same with all the Novelty shite, I'm scared of it, as I don't have even the barest grasp of it. I'm ok with football, horse racing, RU & RL, as I have a grasp of them, but NFL stuff still makes my head spin.

So many expressions which are second nature to you guys - taking a knee always sounds excitingly sexy to me, reminds me of an adventurous ex girlfriend in fact, but I've no idea what it means in an NFL context.

[horseplayer]

"The names confuse me, too. Sometimes it is, say, Tennessee, other times it is Titans, & Oddschecker, & the NFL page, all use one or the other. I am on Tennesee, & I get to the NFL page & I can't see that name anywhere, ugh. So I have to rack my brains to remember what their other name is. I go though all the nicks first - Bears - no, Lions, no, Browns, no, ahh there it is, Titans. "

brilliant

I have the same problem most times i look for the markets!