Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

REMINDER

We seem to have TWO x £25 Free Bets on file with Wm Hill.

I believe one of them is close to expiry.

A good home required.

[tikay]

Navas making big ground in the assists league

Rooney 9
Ozil      7
Ramsey  6
Navas     6
Gerard   6


Navas has spent a lot less time on the pitch than any of the other players around him. He seems settled now and if he stays fit/in the team i would be very confident he will at least place

Thanks John.

I gather Ozil will be AWOL for a few weeks, Ramsay is also injured, that should help us, too.

[tikay]

Last chance for a Paddy boost:

£10 DeSean Jackson first td @ 15/2
£5 Zach Ertz @ 16/1

I missed these Keith, I'd long gone to bed.

[hector62]

Daily report



Profit on day  £189.52
Profit on month £947.44



To go with yesterdays pretend profit we have a real profit today. The spready has been  in a bit of flux so I may be slightly wrong in places.

The end of the regular American footie season realised several of our bets.

In the throwing stakes Bobby1 got all 3 selections in the required top 4 so made £54.50, top tipping and a fun market.

The Tennessee points target was reached netting a profit of £127.5 from the surprising source of Tal. I am not surprised because of the expert Footie knowledge but more by the £75 wagered. I had him pegged as a bespectacled, chessy bod. Now I have to move him into the Big Swinging Dick genus, next to Essex's finest slipper wearer.

We still have the Bengals to win their conference, and Philadelphia for the whole caboose to root for over the coming month.

In last nights 3 single bets we managed a win when Dallas beat the spread, but 2 other losers meant an over all loss of £36.

We also lost £6.48 when Jimmy Graham scored the 3rd touchdown instead of the first.

In the late night hoop action the OCT easily covered the handicap and we got a last ditch score in the Lakers game to save our blushes with the money back offer. This gave us a profit of £20.


In the UK footie Jakally gave yet another winner in Middlesborough to beat Reading + £50. Post more

Another useless rugby tip went down when London Irish lost to Gloucester -£20. Post less

In on going action our chubby arrowsmith, Adrian Lewis, is through to the semifinal where he plays MVG. Lewis was seen on his mobile straight after his game speaking to his agent to try and reschedule his audition for Man v Food.

It is nice to start the new year with the teams that are top of the Premiership and the Championship carrying Freds cash.


I can now take a break from reporting as I have a couple of days playing hide and seek with my niece Phoebe. The larger bettors amongst you should avail yourselves of the 1-100 odds available that I win, as if she is hiding and hears me enter the room to seek her she can't help giggling.

[Tal]

Sir Bruce Forsyth-Johnson CBE to continue to present Strictly in the new series is 4/6 with William Hill.

You're basically betting on him being well enough, as there's no sign he'd want to stop. The Bastian of all truth and no rumour that is The Daily Express announced on 17 December he would be returning. Pinch o'salt perhaps, but he's still popular and undoubtedly is a big influence on the show.

Show me a better use of your free bet, but that looks like a corker.

[tikay]

Brilliant Daily Report, thanks hector.

Loved the description of Tal (I've met him, profile confirmed), though he's a tad short of our Essex Swinging Dick man, & the Post More/Less stuff.

Everytime I looked at Adrian Lewis last night I kept thinking of him as sport's tubbiest participant. We don't mind him eating plenty today if MVG promises to drink plenty.

Enjoy your time with Phoebe, & thanks again for taking over the Reports in Tighty's absence, you did a terrific job.

Well done top Phil on those Passing Yards bets, what a shame Mr Manning chose this season to get all silly with his stats. 

[Tal]

Fair to say I didn't act entirely alone in the Titans selection...

I'm thinking of encouraging Fred to have some fun with an NFL season long points line but need some help with a team. As a for instance, the line for the Bills is 316-360 and you can go over, under or somewhere in that range.

I read an article suggesting that the Bills could surprise with offence this season and that's the kind of thing that's needed to get a winner.

Points lines must a nightmare for the bookies, especially with so much transition in the leagues each season. Can we get a sweat going where we have a running points total over 16 Monday mornings?

Doesn't have to be the Bills obviously. I think what we are looking for is a team with a better than expected offence in a division with overrated defences. First thought was the Bengals but I think we've kind of covered that already.

Any intelligent views?

Season Point Spreads are offered by Bet 365, they are under season specials at http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials

16 games

A team expected to be poor might be offered at 325-340 points over the season and you can go over, under or in the middle of the quoted range

The New England Patriots, with Brady etc, are up around 450 points

Its basically a bet around 6/4+ each of the three options

I haven't had a chance to look at every team

I concentrated on those Where I thought the pivot price/range might be too low

I excluded teams that

- play outside in the North. Bad weather from November onwards wouldn't want me going overs on points
- play against teams that play outside in the North 
- teams with 2+ top notch defenses in their division. As you ahve to play six divisional games

I included

- unfashionable teams where Bet365 might know less than I do. Thats every team actually, but humour me
- Teams that were poor last year that might turn round
- Teams that play in good weather at home

Name me three Tennessee Titans players Tal.....go on, take your time....

The Titans are the Middlesborough of the NFL. Even if you are from Middlesborough, you might not go to watch them and if you aren't, they invoke a feeling of "meh, so what" in NFL fans

They have been a struggling team

What has changed from last year?

They have invested heaviliy in their Offensive Line including a no 1 draft choice in the most brutal guard you will see on a field this year, Chance Warmack

All this is designed to create holes for their running back Chris Johnson, who has had two down years but is poised to bounce back

Their best WR Kenny Britt has been injured off and on for two years. He is a good one. they drafted Kendall Wright in the first round last year and Justin Hunter in the second round this year at WR and teams can't double cover all of them, that assumes the new ones "make it"

The QB Jake Locker is maturing

Expectations are low. I do not expect them to hit the play offs but

- they play in good weather
- they play Houston, Indy and Jags in their division. Only Houston is a top 10 defense
- their schedule, as befits a bad team last year, looks ok in terms of some high scoring games

they get the Broncos division in the AFC which has 2 bad teams in it
In bad news, they get the 49ers division in the NFC

Over 354 at 17/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/tennessee-titans/season-points

They scored 321 points last season in winning six games

In seven of the 16 games they scored less than 20 points

reduce those and 354 or above becomes a possibility. I think if the OL really does create holes for Johnson and with Britt fully fit plus two other high draft choice receivers they might


Up to you Tal, this is the sort of process I would go through to find a team for this sort of bet

Any fool could tell you the Patriots will score 400+, but you need a surprise thats not in prices

The secret of good coaching is to lead those who are capable of finding the right answer to believe they found it on their own. If Jerry Jones is looking for a new Head Coach later today, he can PM me.

[Doobs]

Sir Bruce Forsyth-Johnson CBE to continue to present Strictly in the new series is 4/6 with William Hill.

You're basically betting on him being well enough, as there's no sign he'd want to stop. The Bastian of all truth and no rumour that is The Daily Express announced on 17 December he would be returning. Pinch o'salt perhaps, but he's still popular and undoubtedly is a big influence on the show.

Show me a better use of your free bet, but that looks like a corker.

You need something at a much bigger price to use a free bet.

[tikay]

I'm thinking of encouraging Fred to have some fun with an NFL season long points line but need some help with a team. As a for instance, the line for the Bills is 316-360 and you can go over, under or somewhere in that range.

I read an article suggesting that the Bills could surprise with offence this season and that's the kind of thing that's needed to get a winner.

Points lines must a nightmare for the bookies, especially with so much transition in the leagues each season. Can we get a sweat going where we have a running points total over 16 Monday mornings?

Doesn't have to be the Bills obviously. I think what we are looking for is a team with a better than expected offence in a division with overrated defences. First thought was the Bengals but I think we've kind of covered that already.

Any intelligent views?

Season Point Spreads are offered by Bet 365, they are under season specials at http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials

16 games

A team expected to be poor might be offered at 325-340 points over the season and you can go over, under or in the middle of the quoted range

The New England Patriots, with Brady etc, are up around 450 points

Its basically a bet around 6/4+ each of the three options

I haven't had a chance to look at every team

I concentrated on those Where I thought the pivot price/range might be too low

I excluded teams that

- play outside in the North. Bad weather from November onwards wouldn't want me going overs on points
- play against teams that play outside in the North 
- teams with 2+ top notch defenses in their division. As you ahve to play six divisional games

I included

- unfashionable teams where Bet365 might know less than I do. Thats every team actually, but humour me
- Teams that were poor last year that might turn round
- Teams that play in good weather at home

Name me three Tennessee Titans players Tal.....go on, take your time....

The Titans are the Middlesborough of the NFL. Even if you are from Middlesborough, you might not go to watch them and if you aren't, they invoke a feeling of "meh, so what" in NFL fans

They have been a struggling team

What has changed from last year?

They have invested heaviliy in their Offensive Line including a no 1 draft choice in the most brutal guard you will see on a field this year, Chance Warmack

All this is designed to create holes for their running back Chris Johnson, who has had two down years but is poised to bounce back

Their best WR Kenny Britt has been injured off and on for two years. He is a good one. they drafted Kendall Wright in the first round last year and Justin Hunter in the second round this year at WR and teams can't double cover all of them, that assumes the new ones "make it"

The QB Jake Locker is maturing

Expectations are low. I do not expect them to hit the play offs but

- they play in good weather
- they play Houston, Indy and Jags in their division. Only Houston is a top 10 defense
- their schedule, as befits a bad team last year, looks ok in terms of some high scoring games

they get the Broncos division in the AFC which has 2 bad teams in it
In bad news, they get the 49ers division in the NFC

Over 354 at 17/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/tennessee-titans/season-points

They scored 321 points last season in winning six games

In seven of the 16 games they scored less than 20 points

reduce those and 354 or above becomes a possibility. I think if the OL really does create holes for Johnson and with Britt fully fit plus two other high draft choice receivers they might


Up to you Tal, this is the sort of process I would go through to find a team for this sort of bet

Any fool could tell you the Patriots will score 400+, but you need a surprise thats not in prices

I must say, with the benefit of hindsight, that is a stunning piece of analysis by Sir Tight. (Original Screenplay by Swinging Dick Tal).

[Tal]

Sir Bruce Forsyth-Johnson CBE to continue to present Strictly in the new series is 4/6 with William Hill.

You're basically betting on him being well enough, as there's no sign he'd want to stop. The Bastian of all truth and no rumour that is The Daily Express announced on 17 December he would be returning. Pinch o'salt perhaps, but he's still popular and undoubtedly is a big influence on the show.

Show me a better use of your free bet, but that looks like a corker.

You need something at a much bigger price to use a free bet.

Would a max bet be better, then?

[horseplayer]

what time does the free bet expire?

I fancy a bet in league 2 but hills are not back up yet in the market, if they are a competitive price it will fit the price range for a free bet and i like the bet anyway

[Doobs]

Sir Bruce Forsyth-Johnson CBE to continue to present Strictly in the new series is 4/6 with William Hill.

You're basically betting on him being well enough, as there's no sign he'd want to stop. The Bastian of all truth and no rumour that is The Daily Express announced on 17 December he would be returning. Pinch o'salt perhaps, but he's still popular and undoubtedly is a big influence on the show.

Show me a better use of your free bet, but that looks like a corker.

You need something at a much bigger price to use a free bet.

Would a max bet be better, then?

Dunno, he looked all over the place at times.  I remember thinking this must be his last series. Wouldn't like to bet on that though.  They do seem to drop the ladies for a lot less.  Meh, 4/6 doesn't look so bad.

I think Strictly would be absolutely fine without him though and he is a long way from essential.

And the Daily Express announced snow until Christmas in November.  Where is that Charlie Booker(?) piece on the Express?

[tikay]

what time does the free bet expire?

I fancy a bet in league 2 but hills are not back up yet in the market, if they are a competitive price it will fit the price range for a free bet and i like the bet anyway

No idea, & I don't know how to find out, but it was almost certainly from a horse Race, so presumably if we assume no later than 1pm, we should be OK?

Will keep my eye on the thread & process as soon as it gets Posted.

I'll be briefly offline late-morning, but back before 1pm I hope.

[BigAdz]

Sir Bruce Forsyth-Johnson CBE to continue to present Strictly in the new series is 4/6 with William Hill.

You're basically betting on him being well enough, as there's no sign he'd want to stop. The Bastian of all truth and no rumour that is The Daily Express announced on 17 December he would be returning. Pinch o'salt perhaps, but he's still popular and undoubtedly is a big influence on the show.

Show me a better use of your free bet, but that looks like a corker.

Tal showing he has learnt nothing.....free bet on 4/6 shot....hohoho

[hector62]

I think the free bet is available to the 2nd Jan.