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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16403916 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #63360 on: December 30, 2013, 04:25:30 PM »

I updated my premiership handicap spreadsheet late this moning after poker.  It is on the other PC, so will be a memory test.

We are exactly half way through the season.  Newcastle were definitely projected 2nd (99), behind Everton (101).  I think Arsenal, Liverpool and Hull were 3rd, 4th and 5th.  I can't rememmber the exact order, but think Hull were 4th on 95.  Either way the Hull and Newcastle bets very much live.

Palace were joint 9th with Cardiff I think.  Palace are probably about 8 points shy of where they need to be for the 100/1 payday.
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« Reply #63361 on: December 30, 2013, 04:27:02 PM »

Is Fred on Sheff Utd o finish in the top 12 of League 1?
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« Reply #63362 on: December 30, 2013, 04:30:37 PM »

Amazing write up, as ever.

Paulinho has two goals in the league (four in total) this season. The bet was originally placed with him having a more forward role than he has had, but this has been due to the injury to Etienne Capoue. Capoue is back and Sherwood seems happy for a more aggressive line up anyway. He's had 61 shots in all competitions this season for his four goals. With a 4-4-2 formation, if he is allowed to go forward, I'd say the bet is still on. He does, however, need to shoot better!
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« Reply #63363 on: December 30, 2013, 04:32:33 PM »

Is Fred on Sheff Utd o finish in the top 12 of League 1?

top six only

top twelve was discussed, and was the preferred option of some too
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« Reply #63364 on: December 30, 2013, 04:42:22 PM »

Packers gota be the fav outsiders surely?

Thoughts on Carolina? Ive had a little tickle on them myself
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« Reply #63365 on: December 30, 2013, 04:45:41 PM »

hearing some good things about Sheff utd

Somebody who goes every week told me he suspects it will be all to much this season but the signs are encouraging

Good to see Baxter playing and scoring got the talent for at least that level
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« Reply #63366 on: December 30, 2013, 04:46:10 PM »

Packers gota be the fav outsiders surely?

Thoughts on Carolina? Ive had a little tickle on them myself

Carolina's defense is terrific, front to back and of course they play their first play off game at home.

Think I would fancy a hot offense to turn them over at some point in the play offs though, could of course be Green Bay

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« Reply #63367 on: December 30, 2013, 04:47:59 PM »

Is Fred on Sheff Utd o finish in the top 12 of League 1?

top six only

top twelve was discussed, and was the preferred option of some too

Ah ok, I thought we were on both, tbh I have seen em a few times in the last Cple of weeks and they are pretty uninspiring. tho I suppose 2 defeats since Clough took over and a nice looking unbeaten run might look ok they need some new additions in midfield, left back and up front in Jan. Chris Porter played centre forward the other day and it was a really depressing site as his role seemed to be to jump into or try to get fouled by a defender so we could get free kicks around the box. Seemed to be working on the theory that even if the free kicks go 30/70 against us then at least we are going to get some set pieces near the oppositions box.

That's how uninspiring it was.....tho to use someone elses line you don't go to Plumpton to see Dancing Brave.  
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« Reply #63368 on: December 30, 2013, 04:49:15 PM »

Ha not sure I fancy doing the report but will volunteer to do it next time im wrong if fred allows me a couple of maxes if I'm right, in fairness newc went off 5/2 solid which I thought was ridiculous so can be wrong and right at same time
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« Reply #63369 on: December 30, 2013, 04:50:16 PM »

I updated my premiership handicap spreadsheet late this moning after poker.  It is on the other PC, so will be a memory test.

We are exactly half way through the season.  Newcastle were definitely projected 2nd (99), behind Everton (101).  I think Arsenal, Liverpool and Hull were 3rd, 4th and 5th.  I can't rememmber the exact order, but think Hull were 4th on 95.  Either way the Hull and Newcastle bets very much live.

Palace were joint 9th with Cardiff I think.  Palace are probably about 8 points shy of where they need to be for the 100/1 payday.

Current prices

Liverpool 11/4 (+20)
Everton 3/1 (+27)
Newc 6/1 (+33)
Ston 7/1 (+36)
Arsenal 7/1 (+12)
Hull 8/1 (+49)
...
Palace 66/1 (+51)
...
WBA 125/1 (+36)
« Last Edit: December 30, 2013, 04:52:21 PM by JoeBeevers » Logged
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« Reply #63370 on: December 30, 2013, 04:51:28 PM »

Tighty responded properly, but I've spent time (all of five minutes) looking at this stuff now and By Jove I'm going to include it in a post!

Packers gota be the fav outsiders surely?

Thoughts on Carolina? Ive had a little tickle on them myself

They've been really tough to beat in the open air, particularly against teams that like to throw the ball.

Won 11 of their last 12 games, only losing to the Saints in a dome. If they played again, it would be in the championship game (I think the Saints would play the higher seed Seattle if they won their wildcard match) so they would have home advantage, which would be huge for them.

If they played Seattle away in the pennant game (which is what should happen on seeding), that would be a repeat of their opening day game, which Seattle won 12-7.

I'll let the price people advise on value, though.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2013, 07:08:48 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #63371 on: December 30, 2013, 05:07:24 PM »

While the premier league has a revolving door manager policy, with entrances, exits and sometimes both throughout the year, in the NFL, it seems to happen in one go.

Today is Black Monday, when teams decide whether to hold or fold. So far, four teams (I think) have decided it's time to move on:

Cleveland Browns
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins

There could be more to come.
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« Reply #63372 on: December 30, 2013, 05:11:59 PM »

Any chance fred can do its first spread bet tonight? Fancy high checkout in Wright game, Wright has 3x150+ in 4 games himself so far. Like buying his highest checkout at 130 and game highest at 143. Wouldn't surprise me if this made up at 167/170
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« Reply #63373 on: December 30, 2013, 05:35:54 PM »

Looking forward to tonight's two semis. Like Wright and Van Gerwen.

How much per point the over 130 bet Dubai? Best be specific, or TiddlearseIndex could try for 10p a point or some such.

Or we might just pretend we didn't see it, like my incred Brentford suggestion @ 9/5...
« Last Edit: December 30, 2013, 10:37:10 PM by Chompy » Logged

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« Reply #63374 on: December 30, 2013, 05:43:15 PM »

Ha not sure I fancy doing the report but will volunteer to do it next time im wrong if fred allows me a couple of maxes if I'm right, in fairness newc went off 5/2 solid which I thought was ridiculous so can be wrong and right at same time

Didn't lay off either.  Sent the cash earlier.  Wasn't the best start to a Sunday session.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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