Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I have done 1053 words this morning on the Six Nations, which I will spare you

However the tournament  starts next weekend, always one of the most thrilling sporting tournaments of the year

We can thus try not to ruin February numbers game by game and market by market

Anyway, Rubbish has us on France at 3/1


I looked at the Top Try scorer market

Last year Cuthbert with 4 tries won it, ahead of others on 2 including Fofana

This has informed the way this market is priced up for this year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/top-tryscorer

Cuthbert is priced up to repeat, but I think this might be incorrect. 2 of Cuthbert's 4 tries were in England's capitulation on Cardiff where England's defending was of the cowardly matador with a cape variety in the face of a particularly stroppy bull

This year Wales have to go to Twickenham and Dublin with a number of players out (cf the French win in a Lions year point behind the France bet, with no break for nearly two years injury incidence in the four home nations top players is high)

France have 3 of 5 games at home

They have one of the most sublime players to watch in the Northern Hemisphere, Wesley Fofana. In 2012 with the same set of fixtures Fofana scored 4 tries in the Championship

He now has six 6N tries in total.

Fofana, of Malian descent, is known as "The Cheetah"



1.38 in this one is brilliant. Wonderful stuff



Fofana plays for Clermont alongside Nalaga. He will play fitness permitting all five games. He can create tries out of nothing. With no François Trinh-Duc, no Frédéric Michalak, no Morgan Parra, no Vincent Clerc, no Florian Fritz and no Camille Lopez due to injury Fofana is France's key creative player

While the prospects of Cuthbert, North, Ashton are all in prices, Fofana at 12-1 isn't in my opinion

France will be better this year, they have 3 of 5 at home and the each way, which for Fofana has landed each of the last two years is available at 1/4 the odds

We need also to consider the weather and the possibility that at least the early games of the tournament will be played on heavy pitches in bad weather. This might be said to count against the backs, and try scoring in general, in this years tournament. Possibly a tenuous point, but it might not take 4-5 tries to win this in 2014

Recommendation £20 e/w Wesly Fofana Top Six Nations Try Scorers at 12/1 (1/4 top four) (getVictor, Badbrokes, Corral, Baldfred, But365)

Wonderfully explained and justified, this is what Fred is all about, thanks Rich.

BET PLACED

[The Camel]

TightEnd what do you think of the 11/1 for Fofana on the win only market that can be got on the exchange?  Would we be able to back him and maybe lay a bit back if he gets off to a decent start? 

you might, France start with two matches at home

but it is the 1/4 e/w in this type of market that is crucial, getting four places

3/1 top 4 is really very good value

I doubt there will be any liquidity on Betfair after the tournament starts.

[Kmac84]

I'd like to suggest a smallish bet in the bishbashbosh screamy shouty snooker today.  On a personal level, I am havinga decent tournament I have 4 of my selections through to the last 16 from 6 picks, so I am hopeful thatI will be onto a decent sweat later today.  

One player I am disapppointed to have missed is Thepchaiya Un Nooh, I think he has aquitted himself fairly well and imo the format seems to suit his game.  He has enjoyed it and aguably been one of the more consistent players.  Sadly I missed the outright price.  But I like him to beat Mark Davis today at 6/5 on betfair.  As we all know this is a bit of a lotto, but to my eye this is more a coin flip and would have priced it more 9/10 and 11/10 the pair so I think there is a good arguement for betting this.  I would have reversed the odds though and made Un Nooh the favourite over this format.  

I suggest £25 @ 6/5

Betfair Sportsbook now go EVENS.

It was on Exchange Tikay but its now 11/10. 

[tikay]

I'd like to suggest a smallish bet in the bishbashbosh screamy shouty snooker today.  On a personal level, I am havinga decent tournament I have 4 of my selections through to the last 16 from 6 picks, so I am hopeful thatI will be onto a decent sweat later today.  

One player I am disapppointed to have missed is Thepchaiya Un Nooh, I think he has aquitted himself fairly well and imo the format seems to suit his game.  He has enjoyed it and aguably been one of the more consistent players.  Sadly I missed the outright price.  But I like him to beat Mark Davis today at 6/5 on betfair.  As we all know this is a bit of a lotto, but to my eye this is more a coin flip and would have priced it more 9/10 and 11/10 the pair so I think there is a good arguement for betting this.  I would have reversed the odds though and made Un Nooh the favourite over this format.  

I suggest £25 @ 6/5

Betfair Sportsbook now go EVENS.

It was on Exchange Tikay but its now 11/10. 

5/1 now........!

We may have dodged a bullet due to my earlier confusion.

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/alpine-skiing/olympic-alpine-skiing-mens-super-g/winner

Bode Miller @ 22/1 with sleepy sproutingbet.

I can't get on myself, but Miller is back in cracking form right in time for Sochi. 2nd in today's Super G missing 1st by 5/100ths, a decent value sweat.

[ripple11]

 Catching up....

thanks for the tip Horsey  

Outstanding work by Rubbish ...fantastic read.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/alpine-skiing/olympic-alpine-skiing-mens-super-g/winner

Bode Miller @ 22/1 with sleepy sproutingbet.

I can't get on myself, but Miller is back in cracking form right in time for Sochi. 2nd in today's Super G missing 1st by 5/100ths, a decent value sweat.

Thanks Tonji,

Deffo worth a tenner, shame they don't offer EW.

We have £10 WIN @ 22/1

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Bode Miller back in the hunt. Good to see.

The Captain is on SS2 next in the Pyjama Snooker.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/alpine-skiing/olympic-alpine-skiing-mens-super-g/winner

Bode Miller @ 22/1 with sleepy sproutingbet.

I can't get on myself, but Miller is back in cracking form right in time for Sochi. 2nd in today's Super G missing 1st by 5/100ths, a decent value sweat.

Thanks Tonji,

Deffo worth a tenner, shame they don't offer EW.

We have £10 WIN @ 22/1

BET PLACED

Bugger, just seen the Market, think that may be deemed a palp, three firms priced it up, two quote 3/1, & Sporting Bet 22/1.......!

Goodbye Sporting Bet Account, but at least lets hope we depart with a 22/1 winner.


http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/alpine-skiing/olympic-alpine-skiing-mens-super-g/winner

[tikay]

Bode Miller back in the hunt. Good to see.

The Captain is on SS2 next in the Pyjama Snooker.

Carter? Our last chance in this, yes?

What colour shoes?

You gave us a bloke with SILVER shoes yesterday. I was outraged.

[Doobs]

Use the free bet on Austin Healy to win Splash.  10/1 beats Betfair.  The market is a bit weird, due to the presence of Richard Whitehead MBE.  At least Austin is trying difficult dives even if he was all over the place on the first one.  We are betting against a big public favourite and have the worst semi draw, but he should win more than 1 time in 11.

Is best price and comfortably beats Betfair.

[Tal]

Bode Miller back in the hunt. Good to see.

The Captain is on SS2 next in the Pyjama Snooker.

Carter? Our last chance in this, yes?

What colour shoes?

You gave us a bloke with SILVER shoes yesterday. I was outraged.

I did. Fair to say he's just properly thrown a wobbly.

[tikay]

Use the free bet on Austin Healy to win Splash.  10/1 beats Betfair.  The market is a bit weird, due to the presence of Richard Whitehead MBE.  At least Austin is trying difficult dives even if he was all over the place on the first one.  We are betting against a big public favourite and have the worst semi draw, but he should win more than 1 time in 11.

Is best price and comfortably beats Betfair.

£25 FREE BET PLACED

[Tal]

Captain Not So Fantastic is out.

You don't have to watch any more of it, unless the mood captures you.

[Marky147]

Superb post Rubbish

Today i am literally walking in a Stuart Gray wonderland thanks to Coral and there laughably poor "compiling"

Another great shout, thanks!

I can't remember how much shorter the other firms were at the time, but I would guess that most of them pay out after 10 games, and Coral have that angle in their favour.